Beating 20 Indian soldiers to death Monday evening, China’s People’s Liberation Army has provoked the Indian nationalist tiger.
The skirmish occurred after India — likely accurately — said that PLA forces attempted to “change the status quo” unilaterally along the two countries’ disputed “line of control” border area. The violence did not involve an armed engagement: Instead, the PLA physically attack a smaller number of Indian soldiers. But if, as the defense editor for the Times of India suggests (I believe he is correct), and 20 soldiers, including a regiment commanding officer, were killed, Indian nationalist anger will be unleashed. Considering that both China and India possess nuclear weapons, this concern should not be underestimated.
Nor should we forget that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s power flows from this nationalist base. Shaping a foreign policy vision of India as a global power capable of and willing to defend its interests, Modi has skillfully redirected Indian nationalist sentiments away from their prior obsession with domestic sectarian interests (though this remains a problem) and toward the idea of India as a key international player. But where Indian soldiers have been brutally beaten to death at the hands of a foreign aggressor, Modi faces a distinct challenge. He will feel especially pressured to respond forcefully given perceptions in his Bharatiya Janata Party that he acted too timidly to a February 2019 attack by Pakistani terrorists.
Adding fuel to the fire, this isn’t the first recent Chinese escalation against Indian interests.
Over the past two months, the PLA has been increasingly aggressive along the line of control, frequently confronting Indian patrols on the assumed Indian side of the border. Xi Jinping has also allowed the PLA to send aggressive officers to engage with more diplomatically minded Indian Army commanders. This is straight out of China’s now reflexively imperialist foreign policy strategy and is designed to intimidate India into compromises that favor Beijing.
What will happen next?
New Delhi is currently calling for calm — but on the grounds that three (rather than 20) soldiers were killed in the incident. Modi will now come under pressure to deploy armored, artillery, and air assets to the line of control. China has already deployed its own assets in that regard. And while neither side seeks an actual military conflict, the potential for miscalculation is far greater than some assume. PLA forces along the border are particularly emboldened by the relative freedom of action they are afforded from Beijing.
The United States should stand with India here. The world’s most populous democratic nation is facing the same Chinese aggression that Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines experience nearly every day in the South China Sea. And it poses an existential threat to the American-led liberal international order.
