We seem to be particularly susceptible to fatalism. Modern doctrines of science and history incline us philosophically in that direction. The experience of mass movements and mass effects seems to suggest individuals can do little to affect the course of events. When we do indulge our hopes and take seriously our wishes, they’re often frustrated by reality. And so we then tend to flip to the other extreme of assuming there’s nothing to be done. In a post-religious era, fatalism seems a knowing and sophisticated stance to take towards life.
And so we are now being treated to a wave of Donald Trump fatalism. Yes, he’s defied expectations in a pretty remarkable way. Yes, he’s won three of the first four GOP contests. Yes, he’s ahead in the polls in the states coming up. Yes, he has an easier path to victory than any other candidate.
But only four states—about 1.2 million people—have actually cast ballots. Trump has won about a third of the votes cast; Cruz and Rubio have each won a bit over a fifth. Trump leads in delegates with 81 out of the 133 selected—less than seven percent of those he needs to win the nomination. He trails Cruz in the biggest of the Super Tuesday states, Texas, and while Trump will almost certainly take the most delegates on March 1, it’s unclear whether he’ll win more like half or two-thirds of them. Even if he wins two-thirds, the March 15 winner-take-all states of Ohio, Florida, and Illinois will be fiercely contested.
And this is all before further debates, before any sustained television advertising assault on Trump, while the other candidates are still (foolishly) sniping at each other instead of taking on Trump. And in a circumstance where the frontrunner has unusual vulnerabilities.
So it’s not the time for fatalism. It’s the time to make the case against Trump, and to urge the other candidates to do a better job of making their own case (e.g., Cruz could follow Jeffrey Anderson’s advice here, Rubio could remember that to be the man, you need to beat the man, and could actually take on Trump in tomorrow night’s debate). More broadly, it’s time to behave as active and self-governing citizens rather than as passive and navel-gazing fatalists.
If things go badly, there will be plenty of time for fatalistic navel-gazing later.
