THIS COULD BE IT: Despite President Trump taunting the Democrats with a “bring it on” threat to engage in another shutdown showdown over immigration, Senate negotiators have managed to separate the immigration debate from the budget talks, and are on the verge of a deal that would raise spending caps, fund the Pentagon’s budget request for this year and next, increase domestic spending, and raise the debt ceiling, to boot.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell predicted tomorrow night’s midnight deadline would be met, and another shutdown averted. “I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think we’re on the way to getting an agreement, and on a way to getting an agreement very soon,” McConnell said. Speaking for the Democrats, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said, “We’re making real progress on a spending deal that would increase the caps for both military and middle-class priorities on the domestic side. … I’ve discussed some of the outlines with my caucus that I think we are very happy with, and hopefully the Republicans are, and then we can get something really good done.”
Under the Senate compromise, the issue of extending protections to people brought into the country illegally as children, and other issues such as ending chain migration and border security, would be disentangled and handled separately from the budget bill, despite Trump seeming to link the two. “If we don’t change the legislation, get rid of these loopholes where killers are allowed to come into our country… Let’s do a shutdown,” Trump said in frustration yesterday. “It’s worth it for our country if we don’t get this stuff taken care of. I would love to see a shutdown. Let’s have a shutdown.”
Later, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders denied the president was issuing any sort of ultimatum. “I don’t think that we’d expect the budget deal to include specifics on the immigration reform, but we want to get a deal on that. As we’ve said, we don’t want to hold the government hostage over these items.” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse said the president’s shutdown rant took everyone by surprise. “I’ve got to believe that Republicans in Congress are looking at this and thinking oh, my gosh, can he just please stay out of this and let us solve this problem,” Whitehouse said on MSNBC.
THE LAST HURDLE: Assuming the Senate passes a compromise, the bill still has to get through the House, where members of the Freedom Caucus oppose the spending hikes demanded by the Democrats, and some Democrats are wary of giving up their leverage on immigration.
The Washington Post reports under the Senate plan the Pentagon would get an $80 billion boost in spending for fiscal 2018, while nondefense spending would rise by $63 billion, with similar hikes in fiscal 2019. “This is a bad, bad, bad, bad — you could say ‘bad’ a hundred times — deal,” Rep. Jim Jordan, a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, told the Post. “When you put it all together, a quarter-of-a-trillion-dollar increase in discretionary spending — not what we’re supposed to be doing.”
MATTIS’ LATEST BUDGET PLEA: All the backroom dealing came on a day when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was over on the House side testifying before the Armed Services Committee about the damage the lack of a real budget is doing to his plans to rebuild the U.S. military and retool the nation’s defense strategy. “I regret that, without sustained, predictable appropriation, my presence here today wastes your time, because no strategy can survive … without the funding necessary to resource it,” Mattis said. “Our military remains capable, but our competitive edge has eroded in every domain of warfare: air, land, sea, cyber and space. Under frequent continuing resolutions and sequestered budget caps, our advantages continue to shrink,” he said.
THE PRICE OF FAILURE: If the budget deal falls apart, Mattis warned the result would be a disaster for the U.S. military. “Should we stumble into a year-long continuing resolution, your military will not be able to provide pay for our troops by the end of the fiscal year; will not recruit the 15,000 Army soldiers and 4,000 Air Force airmen required to fill critical manning shortfalls; we will not maintain our ships at sea with the proper balance between operations and time in port for maintenance; we will ground aircraft due to a lack of maintenance and spare parts; we will deplete the ammunition, training and manpower required to deter war; and delay contracts for vital acquisition programs necessary to modernize the force.”
PENCE IN JAPAN: Vice President Mike Pence appeared at a joint news conference today with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo today, en route to the South Korean Winter Olympics. “This week as the world knows, North Korea is sending a delegation to participate in the Winter Olympics. They’ll march under the same banner as South Korea,” Pence said as he began his campaign to keep the North from hijacking the narrative with propaganda. “We should not forget that North Korea and South Korea have marched under the same banner before only to see North Korea continue its pursuit of threats and provocations,” he said.
SANCTIONS COMING: Pence also said the U.S. is preparing to announce major sanctions against the North, boosting pressure on the bellicose government during the Winter Olympics, the AP reported.
“The United States of America will soon unveil the toughest and most aggressive round of economic sanctions on North Korea ever — and we will continue to isolate North Korea until it abandons its nuclear and ballistic missile programs once and for all,” Pence said.
SISTER ACT: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is sending his young sister Kim Yo Jong to the Pyeongchang Games, what the AP describes as an effort to “construct a fresher and warmer public image” as well as counter Pence’s plan to use the games to highlight the North’s brutal human rights record. Kim Yo Jong, believed to be around 30, will be the first member of North Korea’s ruling family to visit South Korea since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, according to the AP.
NORTH KOREA TO TRUMP — YOU STINK: The North Korean state media went after Trump’s personal hygiene, calling Trump an “old lunatic” and saying “he [Trump] cannot deodorize [the] nasty smell from his dirty body woven with frauds, sexual abuses and all other crimes nor keep the U.S. from rushing to final destruction,” according to CNN.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
TRUMP LOVES A PARADE: White House and Pentagon officials are planning a large military parade sometime this year to highlight the strength of America’s military and to honor troops. “The president wants to do something that highlights the service and sacrifice of the military and have a unifying moment for the country,” a White House official told the Washington Post, which broke the story last night.
According to the Post, the idea for the ceremonial display of U.S. military might came when Trump was wowed last summer in Paris while he was President Emmanuel Macron’s guest at France’s Bastille Day parade down the Champs d’Elysee. “It was one of the greatest parades I’ve ever seen,” Trump told reporters last year at a meeting with Macron at the United Nations in New York. “We’re going to have to try to top it.”
After the Post story broke, the White House confirmed that planning for the event has begun. “President Trump is incredibly supportive of America’s great service members who risk their lives every day to keep our country safe,” Sanders said in a statement. “He has asked the Department of Defense to explore a celebration at which all Americans can show their appreciation.”
The Pentagon also told the Washington Examiner, “We are aware of the request and are in the process of determining specific details.” In a brief statement Pentagon spokesman Tom Crosson promised, “We will share more information throughout the planning process.”
THEN CAME THE RAIN: Reaction on social media was swift, especially since the idea was already pre-panned in September when news first broke that Trump wanted the parade. “A hardware parade for an audience of one. Who’s the Rocket Man now?” tweeted retired Rear Adm. John Kirby, a former Pentagon and State Department spokesman. Critics pointed out that such displays, at least in the modern era, evoke Moscow and Pyongyang rather than the U.S. Then there’s the cost, easily in the millions, of transporting the gear and people to D.C. There’s also the continued issue of using members of the military as props, along with the damage that tanks would inflict on city streets. The list goes on.
On CNN, Rep. Lee Zeldin, an Army veteran and major with the Army reserves, said what concerns him in particular is the lack of long-term funding for the Defense Department.
“The continuing resolutions are absolutely not the way to go, especially as it relates to funding the Department of Defense. Cost would be a factor,” the Republican House Foreign Affairs Committee member said of the plan to have a parade. Zeldin said he doesn’t “believe that we should have tanks and nuclear weapons going down Pennsylvania Avenue,” but added that he is open to any “idea that could have a greater celebration” on July Fourth in D.C.
Asked about the plan this morning while he’s traveling in Thailand, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford verbally saluted smartly. “I’m aware of the president’s request and we are in the initial planning stages to meet the president’s direction,” he said, the Wall Street Journal’s Gordon Lubold tweeted.
HAPPENING TODAY: The House Armed Services Committee has a 9 a.m. hearing on accountability and how to prevent misconduct among senior leadership. It will include testimony by the vice chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, as well as the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps.
DEAF EARS: For example, two civilian women who work for the Marine Corps claim the military branch did not take their complaints of sexual harassment against a Marine officer seriously. The incidents happened in 2013 while the two women were working at the Behavioral Health Branch in Quantico, Va., where the Marine Corps is headquartered. Maj. David Cheek was one of their supervisors while he worked at the Marines’ office of manpower and reserve affairs.
Both women claim in official complaints and in interviews that Cheek requested to see them privately and then showed them he had an erection, although he remained clothed. The women did not file complaints immediately, due to concern of retaliation, but filed complaints a year after the event.
“It was creepy,” Sherry Yetter said, according to USA Today. “He spun around in his chair, wearing green silky short shorts. It didn’t hide a whole bunch. He very quickly developed an erection. I made an excuse and got out of there.”
WMD AND ARMY MODERNIZATION: The Senate Armed Services Committee has two subcommittee hearings today. Sen. Joni Ernst chairs a hearing at 2:30 on weapons of mass destruction. The hearing will focus on WMD threats from China and Russia as well as the rogue countries such as North Korea and Iran, and include testimony from Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for Homeland Defense And Global Security, and Lt. Gen. Joseph Osterman, deputy commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. Sen. Tom Cotton chairs a hearing on Army modernization with testimony from four generals at 3:30. That lineup includes Lt. Gen. Joe Anderson, Lt. Gen. Mike Murray, Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, and Maj. Gen. Robert “Bo” Dyess.
BLAMING PILOTS FOR HYPOXIA: Frustrations boiled over at a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday over the continuing mystery surrounding oxygen deprivation among pilots. Rep. Mike Turner dressed down Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, deputy chief of staff for operations for the Air Force, over the service’s focus on training as a potential solution. “Gen. Nowland, I have to tell you, I could not be more disappointed by your presentation,” Turner, who is chairman of the Tactical Air and Land Forces subcommittee, said as he launched into the criticism. “No one ever came to us and tried to blame the pilots and say it’s just an issue of training. There is something wrong with the systems that these pilots are relying on for their lives and that we’re asking them to rely on.” The Ohio Republican told Nowland that Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson had just visited his office and “she does not agree with you and I’m glad.”
Nowland had said the service is taking a holistic training approach in its attempts to root out the causes and solve the oxygen problems that are plaguing military aircraft. “If you got the impression during my testimony that we are blaming pilots, we are not,” Nowland said. For example, the Air Force crews had not been properly trained on how to use a chest valve on the F-22 Raptor fighter jet’s life support system. It was the fifth and most recent hearing Turner’s subcommittee has held on pilot hypoxia, and comes after the Air Force grounded T-6 training jets last week due to hypoxia.
Nowland said grounding of the T-6 trainers is believed to be caused by a lack of maintenance. “We never trained our technicians on how to maintain that piece of equipment,” he said. “Our suspicion is our maintenance of our onboard oxygen generating system for our T-6s after having flown them for 2.1 million hours needs to be repaired. So, we believe there’s a repair but we don’t know that for sure.”
MATTIS FOR THE DEFENSE: In his appearance yesterday before the House Armed Services Committee, Mattis spent a lot of time trying to reassure skeptical committee members that he has things under control at Pentagon, so long as they do their job and give him the resources he needs. He said the new Trump nuclear policy means the U.S. won’t face a choice between suicide or surrender, explained that one of the new nuclear missiles envisioned under the strategy is really just a bargaining chip, and defended the Afghanistan strategy insisting the U.S. is not facing defeat in the ‘graveyard of empires.”
RUSSIA, IRAN THREAT: Russia and Iran might undermine Afghanistan’s central government by supporting the Taliban and other local forces, U.S. officials fear. “The Russian influence has not been welcome,” Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan, the second-highest ranking U.S. diplomat, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday.
Sullivan explained that Russia is backing “elements” of the Taliban in the region where the United States is carrying out aggressive counterterrorism airstrikes. Additionally, Iran — the leading Shia Muslim power in the world — has the opportunity to strengthen ties with Shia Muslims in Afghanistan, which shares a border with Iran.
YEMEN STRIKES: U.S. Central Command is just now getting around to telling us about airstrikes the U.S. conducted in Yemen over the past two months. The U.S. claims to have killed Miqdad al Sana’ani, identified as an al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula external operations facilitator, and Habib al-Sana’ani, an AQAP deputy arms facilitator, both in December.
The U.S. carried out 18 airstrikes: eight in December and 10 in January, according to CENTCOM update yesterday. “Every strike advances the defeat of violent extremist organizations, and protects the United States and partner nations from attack at home and abroad,” said Lt. Col. Earl Brown, CENTCOM spokesman.
KELLY’S COMMENTS: White House Chief of Staff John Kelly raised eyebrows yesterday when he said that many people who were eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program may have chosen not to sign up because they are “too lazy to get off their asses.” Kelly was speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill, explaining why the president would support a pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million people, rather than the smaller subset currently protected by DACA.
“There are 690,000 official DACA registrants and the president sent over what amounts to be two-and-a-half times that number, to 1.8 million,” Kelly said, according to the Washington Post. “The difference between 690 [thousand] and 1.8 million were the people that some would say were too afraid to sign up, others would say were too lazy to get off their asses, but they didn’t sign up.”
THE RUNDOWN
AP: Russian hackers hunt hi-tech secrets, exploiting US weakness
Washington Post: In a new wave of the Afghanistan air war, the U.S. strikes a little-known militant group
AP: Former Afghan leader urges sanctions on Pakistan officials
The Diplomat: New Photographs Show China’s South China Sea Artificial Islands Like You’ve Never Seen Them
Bloomberg: Navy Presses Mattis to Delay ‘Shock Testing’ Costliest Carrier
Roll Call: Cleared of Corruption Charges, Robert Menendez Regains Top Foreign Relations Post
Defense One: What ‘Buy America’ Looks Like at an Overseas Air Show
Task and Purpose: SOCOM Is Snatching Up A Handful Of Feisty New Personal Defense Weapons
Army Times: Man arrested for stealing Humvee just wanted to join the Army
Stars and Stripes: Latest US strategy in Afghanistan draws Senate panel’s rebuke, ire
Air Force Times: Top US Air Force general hopes to increase Asia’s interest in light-attack aircraft
Defense News: First look: Watch the V-280 Valor reach 80 knots in flight tests
Military Times: US could unfreeze $900M security aid if Pakistan targets terror
War on the Rocks: Let’s Talk Process: The USS Fitzgerald and USS John S McCain Collisions
Navy Times: Navy’s massive training overhaul faces long-term threat
Foreign Policy: Vladimir Putin’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment
Military.com: After Trouncing ISIS in Iraq, Marines in Middle East Wonder What’s Next
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEB. 7
8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s conference: Unmanned Systems—Defense. Protection. Security with Mary Miller, with the office of undersecretary of defense for research and engineering. thedefenseshow.org
9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee on Senior Leader Misconduct: Prevention and Accountability with the vice chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, as well as the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps. armedservices.house.gov
9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Ground Truth Briefing: Winter Games: What’s Going On With North and South Korea? wilsoncenter.org
10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW. International Cybersecurity Leaders Forum: The U.S.-Ukraine Cybersecurity Partnership with Rep. Brendan Boyle. gwu.edu
12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. How to Interpret Nuclear Crises: From Kargil to North Korea. stimson.org
2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Defending the Homeland: Department of Defense’s Role in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction with Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for Homeland Defense And Global Security, and Lt. Gen. Joseph Osterman. armed-services.senate.gov
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Rise and Fall of the ABM Treaty: Missile Defense and the U.S.-Russia Relationship. csis.org
3:30 p.m. Russell 222. Subcommittee hearing on Army Modernization. armed-services.senate.gov
5 p.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed hearing on Turkey and the way ahead. foreign.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEB. 8
7 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Executive Breakfast. ndia.org
8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s conference: Unmanned Systems—Defense. Protection. Security. thedefenseshow.org
10:30 a.m. Hart 216. Nominations hearing: Ney, Fahey, Ayres and Gordon-Hagerty. armed-services.senate.gov
1:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Next steps for the Army: A conversation with Under Secretary Ryan McCarthy. brookings.edu
4:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Cyber Mercenaries: States and Hackers. carnegieendownment.org
5:15 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. War Powers and Military Force with John Yoo, former deputy assistant U.S. attorney general. atlanticcouncil.org
FRIDAY | FEB. 9
10 a.m. 740 15th St. NW. ‘Ultimate Deal’ or Ultimate Demise? Palestinian-Israeli Peace Under Trump. newamerica.org
11:30 a.m. Syrian Impasse: America Between Turkey and the Kurds. defenddemocracy.org
12 noon. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace. wilsoncenter.org
3:50 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Book discussion of “Directorate S: America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan” with author Steve Coll. newamerica.org
MONDAY | FEB. 12
9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Priorities Discussion with Matthew Donovan, Under Secretary of the Air Force. mitchellaerospacepower.org
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review: Continuity and change with David Trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. brookings.edu
2 p.m. Oversight and Accountability in U.S. Security Sector Assistance: Seeking Return on Investment with Rep. Adam Smith, Brig. Gen. Antonio Fletcher of U.S. Southern Command, and Adam Barker, a professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. csis.org
TUESDAY | FEB. 13
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A Kennan for Our Times: Celebrating the Legacy of George F. Kennan. wilsoncenter.org
12 noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Iraq’s Energy Potential: Opportunities and Challenges. atlanticcouncil.org
12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Secession and Security: How States Handle Separatists in South Asia and Beyond. stimson.org
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Containing Russia: How to Respond to Moscow’s Intervention in U.S. Democracy and Growing Geopolitical Challenge. cfr.org
2:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Changing Patterns of Extremism and Terrorism in Pakistan. wilsoncenter.org
WEDNESDAY | FEB. 14
7 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defense Roundtable Breakfast. ndia.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Surface Warfare Challenge: A Retrospective on Culture, Readiness, Maintenance, and Standards. csis.org
1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. National Security and the Korean Peninsula: Perspectives from a Defector, a Russian, and an Analyst. wilsoncenter.org
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion of “Boko Haram: The History of an African Jihadist Movement” with author Alexander Thurston. csis.org
2:30 p.m. Russell 222. Subcommittee Hearing on Current Readiness of U.S. Forces with Gen. James McConville, Army Vice Chief Of Staff; Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations; Gen. Glenn Walters, Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps; and Gen. Stephen Wilson, Vice Chief Of Staff of the Air Force. armed-services.senate.gov
