A new historical calculation of Mitt Romney’s chances to take a third stab at the presidency and win puts the Republican’s chances of victory at a tiny 7 percent, probably not even worth the effort of stamping out Mitt 2016 buttons.
As allies, encouraged by voter polls, continue to push him to run again, the facts are that only nine one-time nominees have ever won the nomination a second time, and only four of those won the presidency. That’s four of 57 presidential elections. The last was Richard Nixon.
The Pew Research Center teamed with the National Archives to mine the history of presidential nominations to determine if the “second time’s the charm.” It isn’t.
“In the U.S., the two major political parties seldom give their failed presidential nominees another shot at the brass ring,” said Pew.
It wasn’t always that way. Pew’s Drew DeSilver said past nominees seemed to run over and over in the 1800s.
If Romney took another stab at running, he would be following modern day failures like Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern.
“More recently, though, the Democratic and Republican parties seem to have operated on the principle that after one chance in the general election, candidates should make way for new (or at least new-ish) faces,” said DeSilver.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
