Just weeks ago, Joe Biden’s third White House run seemed dead in the water. Now, pollsters and Democratic insiders say he can end the primary on March 10 with a win in Michigan.
A victory there for the former vice president once seemed like a long shot, particularly after Bernie Sanders’s resounding victories in New Hampshire, Nevada, and his near-win in Iowa. Polling in the state before Biden’s double-digit win in South Carolina last Saturday had him with just a narrow lead over the Vermont senator, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren not far behind.
But now, Biden has a chance to emerge next Tuesday as the party’s leader with a delegate edge that could prove insurmountable for Sanders.
“I am assuming that Biden winning is likely, given what’s happened in other states,” said Michigan pollster Bernie Porn, who is currently conducting a survey of Michigan Democrats that he believes will show Biden with a substantial lead when completed. “Knowing that black participation is likely to be fairly strong, and there’s this almost inexplicable coalition building around Joe that is moving towards him being the likely nominee.”
Already, Sanders is indicating he faces challenges in Michigan. On Thursday afternoon, he canceled a rally in Mississippi scheduled for Friday afternoon in order to travel to Michigan instead.
In 2016, Sanders won the state in an upset against Hillary Clinton, with just under 50% of the vote compared to her 48.3%. In days leading up to the contest, Clinton was leading him by over 25% in some polls.
That shock result is allowing the Sanders campaign to project confidence, even as its chances diminish. In calls with staff, the campaign is imploring field workers not to be discouraged by the sudden turn in the race.
Replicating those results, however, could prove near impossible considering Biden’s high favorability ratings in comparison to Clinton.
“If you look at the map of Bernie’s narrow win over Clinton, Sanders won almost every county or the vast majority of counties,” said Kyle Kondik, an elections expert at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “If you look at Kent County or Grand Rapids, historically Republican but becoming more competitive, he won it by 20 points. Is that going to happen again? I highly doubt it.”
A win in Michigan would require a groundswell of support over large portions of the state that he has yet accomplished in states with similar demographics, such as Minnesota or Massachusetts. The Michigan primary electorate is roughly 30% black, which means Sanders would need tremendous turnout in the white portions of the state — something he has yet been able to do.
“Is Sanders essentially going to sweep all of northern Michigan? I just don’t think so,” said Kondik. “Is Sanders going to do considerably better in the Detroit area? Not from what we’ve seen.”
The influx of endorsements toward Biden isn’t helping either.
On Friday, Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, seen as a rising star in the party, announced her endorsement of Biden.
“Joe Biden is the candidate we need to defeat Donald Trump in November. He’s always had our backs,” she said in a statement. “Now, I’m proud to have his.”
Soon after, the Detroit Free Press released its endorsement of Biden and outlined concerns about the damage a Sanders nomination would have on down-ballot Democrats in November. Those points will likely help pursue suburban moderates who have voted in record numbers for Biden this cycle so far.
A loss in Michigan could irreversibly diminish Sanders’s chances of winning the nomination. After Tuesday, the map only becomes more difficult for him with delegate-rich states such as Florida and Georgia holding their primaries a week later. Sanders’s entire campaign strategy revolves around momentum, and another disappointing finish could leave him with no plan B.
“There just aren’t enough delegates there for Bernie in the rest of the primaries to make up for his losses. The only areas where Bernie is favored is in Washington state, which votes the same day as Michigan,” Porn said. “Another issue for Sanders is that the California primary isn’t definitively over yet, and that could end up closer than what Bernie initially thought. Biden could pick up more support as early voting tallies come up. That would only narrow Sanders’s delegate share even more.”
