On Thursday morning, British Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Union agreed to another extension of Article 50, pushing back Britain’s departure from the EU until Halloween. But the real test of Brexit is likely to come next month with EU elections.
The terms of the extension stipulate that the U.K. is still a full member of the EU, meaning that Britain must host EU elections on May 23 unless Parliament agrees to a deal before then.
A quick agreement on a deal, however, seems quite unlikely. Lawmakers have already rejected May’s proposal three times and a range of alternatives have all failed to win support.
What is far more likely is that Britons head to the polls in May and vote on their representatives for the EU Parliament in an election that acts as a de facto referendum on leaving the EU.
If pro-EU candidates win, lawmakers are more likely to support a Brexit deal that includes strong ties to the EU, or likely to look to a new referendum or potentially scrapping Brexit altogether. On the other hand, if staunchly pro-Brexit candidates make a good showing, lawmakers would surely drop talk of another Brexit referendum and instead redouble their efforts to quickly secure a deal to leave.
The third result, of course, is a toss-up, which would leave Parliament exactly where it is — unable to agree on a path forward and with all options still on the table.
Regardless of the outcome, the EU elections will be a bellwether for what sort of Brexit we get, likely setting the tone for the future of Britain’s ties to Europe.
