The race for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament could be over. Two teams have separated themselves, and two others are close to doing the same.
But a slip-up here or there and a few things could change. Here’s how we handicap the race for the four top seeds:
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The locks » Barring major upsets, Kansas and Kentucky will be top seeds. If Kansas doesn’t play in the best conference, it plays in the next best one. And the Jayhawks sit atop the conference with a 27-1 record. They can lose a game or two and still grab a top seed. Kentucky is 26-1, but its conference is not that great. Still, the Wildcats are a legitimate threat to win the tournament and are a worthy No. 1.
On the verge » Syracuse and Purdue. Purdue played Minnesota on Wednesday night, and a loss probably would end any talk of it getting a No. 1 seed. But if the Boilermakers continue to win — and they have a tough one this weekend vs. Michigan State — then they deserve a top seed. Syracuse is closer to a top seed than Purdue, having won 13 of its last 14. But the Orange play Villanova on Saturday and close the regular season at Louisville, the only team to beat them since Jan. 2. But if the Big East is the best conference, the regular-season winner deserves a No. 1 seed.
Needs help » Duke, Kansas State and Villanova. Kansas State could earn a spot based on its remaining schedule, which includes games against Missouri and at Kansas. The Wildcats have 22 Division I wins and play in a deep, deep conference. If Villanova wins at Syracuse, it, too, vaults into serious consideration. Victories at Georgetown and West Virginia bolster its case. But West Virginia visits next week. Meanwhile, if Duke survives a March 3 game at Maryland, it should be able to win out. While a No. 1 seed might anger Georgetown fans (because the Hoyas easily beat Duke) or Terps fans (just because), look at it this way: It’ll make it sweeter when the Blue Devils lose in the tourney.
