TERRY MCAULIFFE, the chronically silly Democratic national chairman, says Tuesday’s elections were a big victory for Democrats. They weren’t. Losing the Big Enchilada, the New York City mayor’s race, took the edge off winning the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey, which had been held by Republicans. On balance, Democrats managed an ever-so-slight advantage. But there wasn’t much of an ideological trend. Republican conservatives lost the governor’s races, but the winners didn’t run as liberals. And the most identifiable liberal of all, Democratic mayoral candidate Mark Green, lost in the most liberal city in America to a plutocrat Republican, Mike Bloomberg.
There were real winners and losers, however, and here are some of them:
Loser: The new Ronald Reagan. First it was Jack Kemp, who flopped in the 1988 GOP presidential primaries. Then it was Newt Gingrich, who guided Republicans to control of the House before flaming out. Finally it was Bret Schundler, GOP candidate for governor in New Jersey. He ran on Reaganesque issues–cutting taxes, school choice, social conservatism–and lost badly. Who’s the new Reagan now? It’s anybody’s guess.
Winner: Steve Jarding. Never heard of him? He masterminded the Democratic campaign of Mark Warner for governor of Virginia. No state has trended Republican more sharply than Virginia over the past decade. Jarding, who’s from South Dakota, took this into account, transforming Warner, a none-too-easygoing businessman, into a good old boy who loves bluegrass and NASCAR and calls himself a conservative. Warner zinged Republicans for botching the state budget and didn’t bother to offer his own program. The singularity of Jarding’s achievement was underlined by sweeping Republican gains in the state legislature, which confirmed Virginia’s continuing GOP tilt.
Loser: The tax issue. Republican calls for cutting taxes lost their bite after September 11. And in any case, Democrats have learned how to foil the tax issue. Both Warner and Jim McGreevey in New Jersey insisted they don’t intend to raise taxes. Warner promised to complete the phase-out of Virginia’s car tax by the end of his term.
Winner: Latinos. They were the critical swing vote in New York City. When a Republican wins half the Latino vote, as Bloomberg did, he’s likely to win even in a Democratic stronghold. Green alienated many Latinos by trashing his Hispanic opponent, Freddy Ferrer, in the Democratic runoff. Dick Morris says in the New York Post that any white Democrat who does this in a primary is bound to lose the general election. Meanwhile, a Latino won the mayor’s race in Hartford, Conn., and another got into a runoff with Mayor Lee Brown in Houston. In Virginia, Republican Edgar Gonzalez lost his bid for a legislative seat in a newly created Hispanic district in the Washington suburbs. Gonzalez’s problem: Most Latinos in Virginia aren’t citizens and don’t vote. Still, the GOP overture to Latinos generated favorable comment.
Winner: Rudy. Would Mike Bloomberg have had the faintest chance of winning without the events of September elevating Mayor Rudy Giuliani to nose-bleed heights of popularity? No. Would Bloomberg have won without Giuliani’s endorsement? No. Did a TV spot by Giuliani help Mark Earley, the Republican candidate for governor in Virginia? Yes.
Loser: New Jersey Republicans. It’s bad enough the state is the flip side of Virginia–that is, it’s trending strongly Democratic. But the feckless, moderate GOP establishment in New Jersey refused to help Schundler. Republicans also lost the state assembly. They’re in big-time trouble.
Winner: Zillionaires. Yes, the rich are different from you and me: They have a better chance of winning elections. Absent the roughly $60 million he spent on his own campaign, Bloomberg (net worth $4 billion) would still be running his media empire. And where would Mark Warner (net worth $200 million) be if he hadn’t spent $5 million on his campaign? At the very least, the race would have been much closer (he won 53-47 percent).
Loser: Mark Green. He deserves special mention as a career loser. Two weeks ago, he was 16 points ahead and regarded as a cinch. But Green is never really a cinch. He lost races for a U.S. House seat in 1980 and for the U.S. Senate in 1986 and 1998. He even lost his bid some years ago to be the liberal host on “Crossfire” on CNN.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
