THE PAUSE THAT REFRESHES: The U.S. has agreed not to conduct two separate major military exercises with South Korea during a six-week window in February and March when South Korea will be hosting the Winter Olympic and Paralympic games. President Trump made the decision in a phone conversation with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who said conducting the drills during the major international event would strain South Korea’s resources, including police and troops needed to control traffic and provide security. “The two leaders agreed to de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games,” said a White House readout of the phone call.
“They brought it up to us, we have at times changed the timelines on these for any number of reasons,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters yesterday at one of his not-infrequent surprise appearances in the Pentagon press corridor. “To us, this is the normal give and take that we have. Remember, we’re doing this at the host country’s invitation to this exercise.”
READINESS UNAFFECTED: The U.S. military says the readiness of U.S. and South Korean troops will be unaffected by the delay of exercises Key Resolve and Foal Eagle for a few weeks. “We did not yet have firm dates for these exercises at the time the decision was made to delay them,” said Col. Chad Carroll, a spokesman for U.S. Forces Korea. Historically, the drills are conducted in the February to April timeframe. Last year, Foal Eagle, which typically involves some 30,000 U.S. and 200,000 South Korean forces, ran from March 1 to April 30. In 2016, it didn’t begin until March 17. “We haven’t finalized the dates for this year’s set of exercises yet… just know they will be after the Olympics and Paralympics,” Carroll said.
INVITATION ACCEPTED: The delay in military drills comes as North Korea has accepted an invitation from the South to conduct the first direct talks in two years. The only item on the agenda is the possible participation in the winter games to be held next month in Pyeongchang, a mountainous region just 60 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone, but the hope is that once the ice is broken talks can expand to other issues related to the North’s nuclear and missile programs.
Yesterday, Trump tweeted that the talks would have never happened if not for his “firm, strong” willingness to commit total U.S. “might” against the North. Yesterday, his defense secretary seemed to agree, crediting the pressure from three unanimous U.N. Security Council resolutions and tougher sanctions. “Those talks clearly are the result of the amount of international pressure and they are a way, I think, for North Korea to start talking while keeping it contained to a benign issue,” Mattis said. “It is difficult for me to disassociate that he’s now wanting to negotiate on any issue with months and months of unanimous United Nations Security Council effort.” But he added a note of caution. “I wouldn’t read too much into it because we don’t know if it’s a genuine olive branch or not. Obviously, we have to be open to anything that would implement a diplomatic solution.”
THE WILD CARD: The baby steps back from the brink could all be for naught if North Korea fires off another missile in the next two months. The South Korean military has noted some activity that could be a prelude to another launch, but Mattis would not confirm that the U.S. has seen any signs of preparation. “Because that would reveal our sources and methods I don’t want to comment on that,” Mattis said. “We’re keeping an eye on it, obviously. And I think in Seoul they put out some word on it, but I don’t want to talk about it because it would show what we know and when we know it.”
DESIGNATED SURVIVOR: The Christmas holiday is typically a time when the defense secretary visits troops overseas. That’s what Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford was doing, along with the USO tour. But Mattis was sticking closer to home. Why? With North Korea and other potential hot spots simmering, someone in authority needed to be close to the National Military Command Center. “The president was in Mar-a-Lago, the vice president was in Indiana, the secretary of state was in Texas, the chairman was on a trip overseas,” Mattis said. “You might have figured out why one person was somewhere on the East Coast of the United States.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: The United Nations Security Council meets in emergency session today to get a briefing on the nine days of anti-government protests in Iran. What action it might take is unclear, but the Trump administration has announced new sanctions against five Iranian companies. “These sanctions target key entities involved in Iran’s ballistic missile program, which the Iranian regime prioritizes over the economic well-being of the Iranian people,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement. “As the Iranian people suffer, their government and the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] fund foreign militants, terrorist groups, and human rights abuses,” Mnuchin said. “The United States will continue to decisively counter the Iranian regime’s malign activity, including additional sanctions targeting human rights abuses.”
Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon, Mattis said, “The American people do not have an issue with the Iranian people. We’ve got a big issue with the Iranian authoritarian regime, and it appears that there’s an awful lot of Iranian people who have an issue with it as well.”
NUCLEAR SANCTIONS COULD BE NEXT: Meanwhile, Trump’s team is engaged in a serious but discreet internal discussion about whether to renew the key sanctions waived under the terms of the Iran nuclear agreement, administration allies said following a meeting this week at the White House, Joel Gehrke writes.
National Security Council officials hosted a group of like-minded foreign policy experts Tuesday evening to discuss the U.S. response to the Iran protests. The most dramatic move would be to renew sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, which former President Barack Obama waived when he implemented the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“Senior administration officials have said that reimposing sanctions on CBI is very much in play,” a source close to the White House told the Washington Examiner. The White House team was asked directly about that issue Tuesday but demurred. “The response was, ‘We’re not talking about that,’” another source familiar with the meeting said.
Trump faces a legislative deadline to continue or scrap the sanctions waiver next week.
WHO YA GONNA CALL? Former Vice President Joe Biden says he thinks Trump’s confrontational approach to adversaries such as North Korea and Iran could result in the U.S. stumbling into war. “The only war that is worse than one that is intended is one that is unintended,” he said on the PBS NewsHour last night. “When we were in office, we had the dangerous situation. The Iranian navy picked up and arrested and took on board American sailors, OK? I was with John Kerry. John Kerry immediately got on his cell phone and called [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad] Zarif. He had a relationship with him. And it was settled diplomatically. They were freed, and there was no war,” Biden said. “Imagine today just a hypothetical question. If God forbid, while we’re on this program, there’s a report that Iranian ships have taken on board a dozen American hostages, who would call?”
‘PARITY’ IN THE BUDGET FIGHT: Congressional leaders and White House officials came away from budget talks this week projecting optimism. But a day later they still seemed as divided as ever over one of the main components of any deal — whether defense and nondefense spending will receive equal increases. “Any agreement must provide our armed forces with the resources they need to fulfill their missions. That means setting aside the misguided notion that new defense spending needs to be matched dollar-for-dollar by new non-defense spending,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday. He argued that defense has been cut by $85 billion more since Budget Control Act caps went into effect in 2013, a claim questioned by some on the other side of the aisle.
It is essentially the same position McConnell laid out in December, and one that remains unacceptable to Democrats. “Ultimately, the budget agreement must lift the spending caps with parity between defense and urgent domestic priorities,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in response on the Senate floor. “And it must include disaster aid, a healthcare package, and an agreement to enshrine DACA protections alongside additional border security.” Republicans have floated a plan to raise caps on defense spending by $54 billion and non-defense by $37 billion for this fiscal year. But the difference in levels would be a break from 2013 and 2015 deals to raise the caps that set equal increases for defense and non-defense spending.
NAVY SUBS AND THE CHOPPING BLOCK: Some House lawmakers are worried that Congress’ talks about an annual budget deal could end up curtailing their plans to build more Navy fast-attack submarines. The Virginia-class subs are set for a significant hike after Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act last month that allows $5.9 billion for new construction. That is $698 million more than what was requested and an increase of three submarines, for a total of 13 in a block buy. But Reps. Joe Courtney, Jim Langevin and Rob Wittman released a letter this week showing they and a bipartisan group of 33 other lawmakers urged House appropriators not to cut the submarine program as part of any appropriations budget deal, which is still needed to fund the 2018 NDAA priorities.
“Fast-attack submarines remain one of the most effective and sought after tools in our nation’s arsenal,” lawmakers wrote in the Dec. 21 letter. The subs are built by General Dynamics in Groton, Conn., and by Huntington Ingalls at Newport News, Va. Courtney, Langevin and Wittman represent districts around those facilities and are co-chairs of the Congressional Submarine Caucus. The Navy eventually wants a fleet of 66 submarines, and under the president’s budget request to keep building two per year it would not meet that goal until 2048, they warned. The fleet could also reach a low point of 41 as older subs are retired.
PENCE HONORS FALLEN SOLDIER: Vice President Mike Pence attended the dignified transfer ceremony of Sgt. 1st Class Mihail Golin who was killed in Afghanistan New Year’s Day. Golin, a 34-year-old Latvian immigrant from Fort Lee, N.J. was killed by enemy fire in Achin, Nangarhar Province during a patrol. You can see video of the ceremony here.
TIGHTENING THE SCREWS ON PAKISTAN: The State Department confirmed yesterday that the U.S. is suspending almost all security assistance to Pakistan amid a dispute over Pakistan’s inability or unwillingness to crack down on groups including the Islamic State, al Qaeda, the Taliban and the Haqqani network. “We will not be delivering military equipment or transferring security funds to Pakistan unless it’s required by law,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said a yesterday’s briefing.
Trump has constantly accused Pakistan of tolerating or abetting terrorists who enjoy sanctuary within its borders. The administration had already suspended $255 million in foreign military assistance in August, Nauert said, but the latest announcement means the U.S. will withhold even more aid from the country. “The money that has been suspended at this time does not mean that it will be suspended forever. Pakistan has the ability to get this money back, if you will, in the future, but they have to take decisive action. They have to take decisive steps,” she said.
“No partnership can survive a country’s harboring of militants and terrorists who target U.S. service members and officials,” Nauert said. “Just as we have made Pakistan’s enemies our own, we need Pakistan to deny safe haven to or lawfully detain those terrorists and militants who threaten U.S. interests.”
ABOUT THAT BUTTON: The ever-cautious Mattis refused to be drawn into the debate about Trump’s infamous tweet informing North Korea he too has a “nuclear button” that’s “bigger” and “more powerful.” Asked about it in yesterday’s flash gaggle with reporters, Mattis said simply, “My job as the secretary of defense is to make certain that we have forces ready to defend this country,” Mattis said. Pressed by CNN’s Barbara Starr, who said the tweet was “all about the defense of this country,” Mattis said twice, “You’ll have to take it up with the president.”
ABOUT THAT BANNON: Mattis also said former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon was not very talkative on the few occasions he attended meetings at the Pentagon. “He was at two meetings that I recall, here,” Mattis said in response to a question about Bannon’s influence on national security matters. “I’m almost certain he never said a word in either one of those meetings.”
THE RUNDOWN
Navy Times: Here are the top issues facing the US surface fleet in 2018
The Cipher Brief: ‘Persistent, Expanding and Worrisome’: ISIS Rebounds in Afghanistan
Wall Street Journal: U.S., Ukraine Try to Ensure Weapons Don’t Fall to Enemy
USA Today: Trump’s pressure on Pakistan is major test of new strategy to end war in Afghanistan
Stars and Stripes: Swimming surveillance robot mimics manta rays
Defense One: Pentagon Seeks Laser-Powered Bat Drones
New York Times: ISIS Suicide Attack Kills at Least 20 in Kabul
Reuters: National Guard responds to blizzard pounding U.S. Northeast
Defense News: Alexa, does the US lead in military AI?
Defense One: What Trump Got Right in Foreign Policy in 2017
Air Force Times: The badass ‘Angel of Death’: The AC-130′s history and future
Calendar
FRIDAY | JAN. 5
9 a.m. 1800 M St. NW. The Iran Protests: Implications for the Islamic Republic and Beyond. Defenddemocracy.org
1 p.m. Arlington, Virginia. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley hosts a full honor arrival ceremony for Army Secretary Mark Esper at Conmy Hall, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall.
MONDAY | JAN. 8
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. Confronting North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs: American and Japanese views of threats and options compared. brookings.edu
1 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Caught in Conflict: Working to Prevent the Recruitment and Use of Child Soldiers with retired Lt. Gen. Roméo Dallaire, served as the Force Commander of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda during the 1994 genocide. stimson.org
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Fourteen Points: World War One and Woodrow Wilson’s Legacy 100 Years Later. csis.org
4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Discussion of “Safeguarding Democratic Capitalism: U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security, 1920-2015” with author Melvyn Leffler. wilsoncenter.org
6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Book launch of The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam by Max Boot. cfr.org
TUESDAY | JAN. 9
8 a.m. 1919 North Lynn St. Procurement Division Meeting. ndia.org
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Attacks on U.S. Diplomats in Cuba: Response and Oversight. foreign.senate.gov
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. What to Worry About in 2018 with former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken. cfr.org
2:00 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee hearing on China’s pursuit of emerging and exponential technologies. armedservices.house.gov
2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Security Challenges in East Asia. wilsoncenter.org
WEDNESDAY | JAN. 10
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Full committee hearing and Department of Defense update on the Financial Improvement and Audit Remediation (FIAR) Plan. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Sanctions and Financial Pressure: Major National Security Tools. foreignaffairs.house.gov
12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Realizing A Free and Peaceful Indo-Pacific. hudson.org
1 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. With Great Power: Modifying U.S. Arms Sales to Reduce Civilian Harm. stimson.org
THURSDAY | JAN. 11
9 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Past and Future of South Asian Crises with Rep. Ami Bera, vice ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. stimson.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Ron DeSantis discusses President Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”: Is Israeli-Palestinian Peace Possible? heritage.org
2:30 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Guantanamo Under Trump. newamerica.org
FRIDAY | JAN. 12
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. All You Need to Know about Russian Hackers. wilsoncenter.org
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion of “Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony” with author Kori Schake. csis.org
