THE DAIS WAS LINED WITH American exports (various types of grain) and Chinese imports (toys, baseballs, sneakers) when the Business Coalition for U. S.-China Trade convened a meeting in early May in the Rayburn House Building. The issue: extending most-favored-nation trade status to China for another year. The purpose: stir enthusiasm among attendees, mostly Republican House members and corporate lobbyists. They didn’t stir much. GOP representative Jennifer Dunn of Washington said they needed to come up with answers to “the excuses” offered by House members who oppose MFN. And Republican John Shimkus of Illinois dampened the mood by noting ominously that many of his GOP freshman colleagues are under enormous pressure to oppose MFN. The crowd looked worried.
They have reason to be. The list of prominent foes of MFN is growing. Now it includes John Kasich, chairman of the House Budget Committee and one of the most influential Republicans in Congress. Kasich voted for MFN in 1996 in hopes it would lead to improvements in human rights in China. But he “has not seen the improvements,” says Kasich aide Bruce Cuthbertson, and thus will vote against MFN. Henry Hyde, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, is also expected to oppose MFN for the first time. And majority leader Dick Armey, another advocate of MFN in the past, is reconsidering his support. Whatever he decides, Armey says, “the vote will be very close.” Last year, MFN was approved in the House 286-141.
Armey is the pivotal figure. If he jumps, six of the top 12 Republican leaders in the House will be against MFN. Rep. Bill Paxon of New York, who chairs the House GOP leadership meetings, switched and joined MFN opponents on May 12. Neither Kasich nor Hyde has publicly announced his opposition, but Chris Cox of California, who heads the House Republican Policy Committee, and Gerald Solomon, chairman of the House Rules Committee, are longtime critics of normal trade relations with China. Armey would be the most important MFN foe because of his clout with wavering Republicans. “A lot of people will follow Armey,” says House majority whip Tom DeLay, who favors MFN. “He gives them cover. The Christians may get him. They’ve been putting on a big push.”
Gary Bauer, who runs the anti-MFN drive among religious conservatives, has twice talked to Armey. His hunch is Armey will vote against MFN. Certainly Armey knows the case against extending MFN again. In an interview, he volunteered a list of Chinese abuses — human rights, Taiwan, “their antics in American politics,” religious persecution, Hong Kong. But Armey says he continues to believe “freedom of enterprise brings prosperity and fosters further freedom. Frankly, history is on the side of that model.” That, he says, is the strongest argument for renewing MFN.
Whatever Armey decides, foes like Bauer and Solomon insist they have a shot at defeating MFN in the House. (Winning in the Senate, then overriding a Clinton veto, is considerably less likely.) Bauer, who heads the Family Research Council, says he’s talked to a dozen Republicans who’ve already decided to switch and oppose MFN, plus “at least 25″ more who backed MFN last year and are rethinking. While Bauer leans on Republicans, organized labor and the U.S. Catholic Conference are lobbying against MFN among Democrats. Both Jeff Fiedler, president of the Food and Allied Service Trades Department of the AFL-CIO, and John Carr of the Catholic Conference appeared with Bauer at a press conference on May 21. Their alliance has alarmed pro-MFN leaders. ” The coalition of opponents for the first time has coalesced and is fairly well knitted together,” says John Boehner, who heads the House Republican Conference.
President Clinton’s pro-MFN allies in the House GOP leadership aren’t giving up yet. After flinching briefly, House speaker Newt Gingrich declared his backing for MFN on May 19. DeLay, who’s never wavered, says, “If you’re looking to export freedom around the world, you don’t start by taking away freedom from Americans.” Boehner contends the “best way to deal with religious persecution and lack of democratic reform is through open trade, access to the West, and the policy of engagement.” Bob Livingston, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, argues that “if we cut off MFN now, we wouldn’t have any leverage when Hong Kong becomes a part of China” on July 1. Bill Archer, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and Dunn, secretary of the House Republican conference, strongly support MFN.
To defeat MFN in the House, opponents must pick up 70 votes. And neither Paxon nor Armey will help attract them. “It was a tough call,” says Paxon, explaining his decision to oppose MFN. “I’m not leading the charge.” Were he to, it would land him in a bitter fight with the business community, with which Republicans are normally allied. Eastman Kodak, for example, is a major presence in Paxon’s district in upstate New York and favors MFN. For his part, Armey says he probably won’t announce his vote until he actually casts it. All isn’t well on the Democratic side of the anti-MFN coalition either. Representative Nancy Pelosi of California recently chastised labor for doing too little to squelch MFN. One reason is some labor leaders are leery of crossing Clinton and Gore. “Bauer and his people have done a good job among conservatives,” concedes a labor official. “It’s our job to do a similar job with the so-called liberals.”
Shimkus personifies why persuading Republicans to oppose MFN is difficult. ” I’m pro-MFN for three reasons,” he says. “I’m from an agricultural district and it’s critical we continue to expand our markets. Secondly, I’m a believer in international trade. I’m a free-market guy.” Thirdly, Shimkus cites a constituent who adopted a Chinese baby. Without MFN, “they wouldn’t be proud parents of a 13-month-old baby.” Yet Shimkus understands why other Republicans may vote against MFN. Christian conservatives — “and I am one” — have helped create an anti-MFN environment, he says. “With their outcry, it’s causing people to take a second look.” And maybe cast a no vote.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
