Federal and local officials voiced skepticism Tuesday at conjecture from D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty and others that 3 million to 5 million people would come to Washington for the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.
“It’s kind of erroneous to go down that road of 4 million,” said Malcolm Wiley, spokesman for the U.S. Secret Service, referring to published media reports Tuesday that floated that number as an estimate for the crowd on Jan. 20.
“We’ve seen preliminary numbers from 800,000 to 1 million people,” said Joseph Persichini Jr., director of the FBI’s Washington Field Office. “I haven’t seen the statistics to back up that 4 million number.”
While the Secret Service is the lead agency for the design and implementation of the inauguration security plan, the FBI and other federal and local agencies are working together to prepare for the crowds. And while they are preparing for a huge turnout, it’s not expected to be in the “3 [million] to 5 million viewership” along the Mall or parade route that Fenty predicted to WTOP radio on Tuesday.
“The 4 million — I have no idea,” said David Barna, spokesman for the National Park Service, which operates the Mall and its stretch of Pennsylvania Avenue. “We’re expecting a very large crowd, but the size and shape is uncertain.”
Fenty spokeswoman Mafara Hobson said that the city hadn’t settled on a firm estimate for planning purposes, but deferred to the statements made by the mayor in his radio interview.
Estimates of the inaugural crowd are of significant concern to planners. In 1976, a crowd of about 1 million people created enormous headaches during the country’s bicentennial celebrations.
“Often the people producing the numbers are associated with the winning candidate or party,” said Gary Hankins, president of the District’s Association of Retired Police. “They sometimes like to produce big numbers to show greater support for their candidate.”
Officials budget everything from emergency services to portable toilets based on crowd projections. The numbers are used internally to make critical, and often expensive, decisions like allowing police overtime, setting up adequate emergency medical resources and setting up outdoor viewing screens for overflow crowds. The estimates are used by each of the 58 different federal, state and local agencies involved in the inauguration.
“We support the lead agencies with X number of people and X number of bathrooms and X amounts of first aid, depending on what they give us for the number of attendees,” Barna said, adding those figures have yet to be calculated.
Estimates aside, Wiley, Persichini and Hankins said a complex but well-tested protocol is in place for the event.
“The challenge will be the size — even 2 million would be huge,” Hankins said, adding policing formulas vary based on the nature of the event. “Fortunately, inaugurations tend to be celebratory and peaceful.”
Howard Gantman, staff director for the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, said his office would work closely with the President’s Inaugural Committee – once it’s formed – as well as law enforcement and local authorities “to make sure this is a great event,” he said. “But I have no idea where that [4 million] prediction came from.”
