When New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie stomped on the news cycle Friday afternoon with his shocking endorsement of his former foe Donald Trump, it looked like it might be the first crack in the dam — a prelude to a flood of endorsements from other Republicans looking to board the #TrumpTrain.
But at the same time, many other Republicans — those with bright careers still ahead of them – took the more prudent (and paradoxically, bolder) route. For instance, freshman Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska took to Twitter to make the case for why he would never vote for Trump, even if Trump received the Republican nomination. Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made no secret that he supports his caucus running the opposite direction from the potential Trump nuclear disaster.
The bad news for Republicans is that it may be tough to avoid the carnage, no matter what. Even though the delegate race is not over, the damage Trump has caused to the party may be tough to fix. If Trump is nominated, Republican candidates will need to define themselves early and in a positive light in order to best avoid being collateral damage.
Already, Democrats are testing out the playbook. Sen. John McCain of Arizona has far from endorsed Trump, and in fact, was the subject of one of the first outrageous insults of Trump’s campaign (when Trump declared he preferred soldiers who don’t get captured by the enemy). In many ways, McCain stands in direct opposition to the direction Donald Trump would take the GOP. But that didn’t stop McCain’s opponent, Ann Kirkpatrick, from already dropping a tough ad linking McCain to Trump.
With Trump as the Republican nominee, the GOP can all but kiss it’s chances at the White House goodbye. Of course, nobody’s made any money betting against Trump at this point, but Democrats already come to the presidential election table with a serious advantage and demographic headwinds. A nominee with Trump’s baggage is an electoral catastrophe waiting to happen.
Republicans looking for a ray of hope look to Congress. A Republican House and Senate can keep in check any liberal overreach from a newly elected President Clinton. A Republican Senate in particular can play a strong role in advising and consenting (or withholding consent) on Supreme Court nominees; if it is in Democratic hands, the Court is all but gone.
But keeping the Senate will be an incredibly difficult task. Consider who is up for re-election in 2016. These were senators who were last on the ballot in 2010.
They come from blue states: Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. That 2010 election was favorable in part because it was a mid-term, with an electorate that demographically favored Republicans. Furthermore, that election happened in the midst of the Tea Party’s rise and an independent voter backlash against Obama’s first term policies like the stimulus and the Affordable Care Act.
The same Republican senators who six years earlier were lifted out of blue and purple states and into the Senate on a rising tide of Tea Party energy now find themselves dealing with an already hostile environment: general election year demographics, a dramatically different political environment, and now … the threat of Trump.
These Republicans are caught in a nearly impossible bind. Embracing Trump would all but do these candidates in with independent voters, and would further cement the idea that Trumpism and Republicanism are now simply synonyms. They’d damage their own party and their own chances at winning.
On the other hand, politics is a contact sport. These vulnerable Republicans will face the exact same sorts of ads facing Sen. McCain in Arizona, even if they couldn’t be further from Trump’s positions or style. The ads will be horribly unfair, and not a soul at the DNC or DSCC will lose a moment’s sleep over it because that’s politics. Even worse for these candidates, wishy-washy partial repudiation will only invite both the swing voters and the Trump loyalists to walk away.
No matter what, Donald Trump is going to speak at a Republican convention. He’s going to fight on the convention floor for the presidential nomination, and that’s assuming he doesn’t lock down the 1,237 delegates necessary before Cleveland even arrives.
Republicans who reject Trumpism should not react to the Trump phenomenon with timidity and cowardice. Either embrace him and go all in, declare that you welcome the new Trump Inc. overlords, or walk away from the table and declare yourself unwilling to play his game, unwilling to go along with his parasitoid consumption of the party.
Define what you’re about. Define what you’re not about. Don’t allow others to define you. This is not a time for timidity.
Republicans are faced with a time for choosing. Keeping the Senate majority requires that they choose wisely.
Kristen Soltis Anderson is a columnist for The Washington Examiner and author of “The Selfie Vote.”
