New British Prime Minister Liz Truss took office Tuesday, replacing Boris Johnson. The 47-year-old Conservative parliamentarian most recently served as foreign secretary.
Truss’s Foreign Office tenure suggests that she will more closely align Britain with the United States on concerns related to China and Russia.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has played a highly formative role in shaping Truss’s political identity. During her inaugural speech outside No. 10 Downing Street, Truss specifically identified Vladimir Putin as the culprit for soaring U.K. energy prices. With energy bills rising more than 400% over the past 12 months, the British face a major crisis this winter, as do many other European countries. Truss is expected to announce price caps via loan agreements with energy providers.
Still, there is no love lost between Truss and Putin or his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. Angered by Ukrainian suffering and animated by the heavy disdain Lavrov and Russian state media have shown her, Truss has supported an aggressive U.K. response to the invasion. She has supported the abandonment of Russian money in London, a trough from which the Conservative Party had long feasted. Alongside Defense Secretary Ben Wallace (likely to retain his role under Truss’s leadership), Truss has argued in favor of extensive support for Kyiv. As I reported on Aug. 19, this U.K. effort has at times involved British special forces activity very close to the front line. As foreign secretary, Truss supervised the U.K. Secret Intelligence Service operation leading U.K. actions in Ukraine. As prime minister, Truss is likely to push the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with higher quantities of longer-range artillery munitions.
Still, it is Truss’s China policy that will likely see the most significant shifts toward U.S. interests.
In contrast to Rishi Sunak, her Conservative Party challenger to become prime minister, Truss has adopted a hawkish tone on China. From her meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other U.S. security officials, Truss is aware of the priority that Washington places on countering China’s ambition for global political dominance. Dealing with President Joe Biden, who has little personal regard for Britain, Truss will know that she can earn major political capital by supporting U.S. policy toward China. The same is true with regard to the Republican Party and any prospective nominee to replace Biden in January 2025.
In return for her support on China, Truss will seek the Biden administration’s support for renewed U.S.-U.K. free trade negotiations and its lobbying of the European Union in Britain’s interest. This latter point bears immediate note in light of significant U.K.-European Union tensions over post-Brexit border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (again, Truss is aware of Biden’s pro-Republican Irish sympathies).
What might Truss’s China policy actually look like? We should expect a more skeptical stance toward Chinese investments involving the technology, telecommunications, and advanced science industries. Truss is also likely to boost British military activity in the Indo-Pacific and to authorize weapons sales to and increased intelligence support for Taiwan. Considering the historic Commonwealth relationship, Truss is also likely to support Australia as it grapples with Beijing’s escalating pressure.
Truss will also advocate increased European military activities, especially in the naval and air domains, which can free up U.S. military assets for redeployment to the Pacific. The U.S. military’s present overstretch threatens America’s ability to prevail against China over Taiwan. And that matters because China is likely to conduct an invasion of Taiwan within the 2024-2028 timetable.
Put simply, on the matters of exigent U.S. foreign policy concern, Truss is likely to be a close ally.
