He admits that it is “absurdly early” to be looking forward to the 2016 presidential primaries, but that’s what University of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato’s team does, and their first look at the Democratic side has only Hillary Clinton in the top tier of likely candidates.

“Clinton’s strengths are obvious, although let’s not forget that she was also a strong favorite going into the 2008 election,” said Sabato, head of the Charlottesville, Va., school’s Center for Politics.