Electric cars once stood on their own. “In the late 1890s, at the dawn of the automobile era, steam, gasoline, and electric cars all competed to become the dominant automotive technology,” wrote David Kirsch in The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History. “By the early 1900s, the battle was over, and internal combustion was poised to become the prime mover of the twentieth century.”
In 1896, in fact, when a young Henry Ford asked Thomas Edison about electricity for his horseless carriage, Edison banged the table with a “no,” citing reduced driving range from a heavy battery and inconvenient recharging.
But today, it’s government policies that have put EVs back into the market — for the elite. There are federal write-offs of $7,500 per vehicle and 30% for EV refueling stations. What’s more, car dealers use EV credits to push the average down on regular SUVs to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards.
Even so, consumers remain wary. The range of EVs is poor, and the recharging is time-consuming — not to mention the need to search for scarce refueling stations. And far from emission-free, EVs are “elsewhere emission” vehicles: Nearly two-thirds of U.S. electricity is generated from natural gas and coal.
Throwing good money after bad, states are handing out subsidies to EV buyers. New Jersey recently instituted rebates of up to $5,000 per car. California offers up to $7,000 in electric vehicle rebates, and Oregon provides $2,500. New Jersey officials believe their plan will increase the number of electric vehicles in the state to 330,000 in just five years. By 2040, lawmakers hope that electric motors will power 85% of light vehicles sold or leased in the Garden State.
But that’s fantasy. Electric vehicles only accounted for 2% of new vehicle sales nationwide in 2019, even with a host of tax bribes. In fact, EV sales have stagnated: California, which provides the strongest incentives for purchasing electric vehicles, saw sales decline in 2019.
It should be no mystery why. While gas-powered cars can travel up to 500 miles on a single tank, electric vehicles get a mere 100 miles to 300 miles per battery charge. Winter heating and summer cooling drain batteries, leading to “range anxiety,” wherein drivers fear the engine might die before reaching their destination.
Future battery costs are unsettling to buyers. The Nissan Leaf, for example, requires a new battery every 10 years at a cost of as much as $8,500. This is one reason why the average new EV loses more than half of its value in just three years, with some losing almost 70%. By comparison, the average three-year depreciation for all vehicles is just 38%.
Inexpensive gasoline and diesel have made traditional cars even more desirable. Advances in drilling and other technologies were behind gasoline’s drop to below $3 a gallon. Today, regular unleaded averages below $2 per gallon nationally.
Post-pandemic, when oil demand returns to normal levels, gasoline will still remain far below the $4-per-gallon price of the summer of 2008 thanks to the shale oil revolution. Car emissions, too, have significantly declined since the 1970s.
Environmentally conscious regulators and prudent lawmakers would do well to let people buy regular cars. Taxpayers will be thankful too.
Robert L. Bradley Jr. is the founder and CEO of the Institute for Energy Research.
