President Joe Biden’s prediction that this month would define his presidency was prescient after Democrats dramatically underperformed in Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races.
Now, Biden has to reevaluate his sprawling legislative agenda if he hopes to save his party from crushing defeats in next year’s midterm elections and salvage his legacy.
Biden has a newfound sense of urgency “to get something done, regardless of what that end result is,” and that approach could be problematic because bad policy is bad politics, according to Republican strategist Doug Heye.
“What we saw Tuesday night was something that caused a lot of pause for more moderate Democrats who want to be able to show results back home but don’t want to go down the massive spending bills road,” he said of Virginia nominee Terry McAuliffe’s unexpected loss and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s stressful photo finish.
“Obviously, McAuliffe just wanted anything passed so he could say something that Democrats were doing, anything. They still need to have that. And Tuesday night made it harder,” the former Republican National Committee spokesman added.
Biden has to manage better the pendulum politics of liberal and centrist Democrats pushing and pulling for different proposals to be in and out of his $1.75 trillion social welfare and climate spending framework, according to Heye. That protracted dynamic has amplified criticism of the measure’s price tag in a vacuum of information concerning its provisions, he said.
“But at the end of the day, Joe Biden’s poll numbers sunk Democrats,” Heye told the Washington Examiner, referring to Biden’s handling of Afghanistan, COVID-19, and the pandemic-wreaked economic havoc. “You can extrapolate education, of course. In Seattle, you can talk about ‘defund the police’; in New Jersey, property taxes. There was certainly an excitement of not just Donald Trump’s base but an overperformance of the Republican vote in reaction to many things. But the underlying issue is Joe Biden’s popularity.”
According to RealClearPolitics, Biden’s average job approval and disapproval is 43% and 51%, respectively. While that approval had increased by a percentage point from his nadir last month, and his disapproval has decreased a point from his zenith, again last month, the rebound did not boost McAuliffe in Virginia.
“No election determines the outcome of future elections. The midterms will be determined by voters in 2022,” White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said from the briefing podium. “And the midterms are still a year away, and a lot could happen over the next weeks and months, which is what we’re focused on.”
Biden has avoided taking responsibility for the 2021 elections, particularly Virginia, after dominating in the commonwealth a year ago. Biden was pressured to stump twice for McAuliffe after the former governor and Democratic National Committee chairman confessed his unpopularity had stirred up political headwinds against him.
“No governor in Virginia has ever won when he is of the same — where he or she is the same party as the sitting president,” he told reporters at the White House.
Biden did concede liberal House Democrats should have caved and passed the $1.2 trillion Senate-cleared infrastructure deal, a plea McAuliffe made himself so he could cite Democratic achievements at the federal level. But Biden remained unsure that would “have changed the number of very conservative folks who turned out in the red districts who were Trump voters” since McAuliffe’s turnout was higher than record-setting outgoing Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s in 2017.
Far-left lawmakers withheld their support for the bipartisan infrastructure deal as they lobbied for more, longer programs to be included in Biden’s partisan social welfare and climate spending package, now a $1.75 trillion framework.
Biden also defended his and McAuliffe’s obsession with Trump, nationalizing the race when Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin concentrated on local matters.
For Democratic strategist Mike Nellis, the 2021 elections were proof being anti-Trump is “not enough” to energize the base and persuade undecided independents to back the party, despite California Gov. Gavin Newsom relying on that tactic to stave off a recall challenge last summer.
“We should have learned that lesson in 2020, but it’s underscored now by the swings in Virginia and New Jersey,” he said. “We’re in charge, and people are demanding help, especially on issues like inflation, child care, and student loans.”
Nellis, whose Authentic Campaigns firm consulted a handful of 2021 candidates, implored Democrats to “go big” and pass popular legislation that leaves an immediate, positive impression on people’s lives, starting with Biden’s agenda.
“If we lose, we lose. At least then we’d have tried to do something that matters,” Nellis said.
