U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft will visit Taiwan from Wednesday to Friday. An important question follows: Will Craft’s plane get a fighter escort?
China will be very upset about this visit. Previous high-level U.S. visits over the past 12 months have precipitated Chinese threats to overfly Taiwan with fighter jets, so it makes sense that we consider how Beijing might react to this trip. While Craft won’t be the highest ranking Trump administration official to visit Taiwan (assuming Secretary of State Mike Pompeo doesn’t decide to join her at the last minute), she will almost certainly be the final official visitor before the Biden administration takes office.
That might lead Beijing to respond more aggressively to this trip than it has to previous ones, believing it must send a message of strength as Trump departs.
The animus between the Trump administration and Xi Jinping’s administration is now overwhelming. But it also envelops Xi’s narrative as the Communist Party’s 21st-century leader of destiny. Put simply, Beijing feels pressure to establish clear red lines against continuing U.S. support for Taiwan. It would make sense, then, that Taiwan support Craft’s arrival with a fighter escort. To do otherwise is to risk the Chinese People’s Liberation Army taking steps to undermine that arrival and jeopardize U.S. and Taiwanese sovereignty in the process. PLA intercepts of U.S. flights near Taiwan are unprofessional at times, tolerating much higher risk levels than might be commonly assumed.
To be clear, Taiwan is a democratic ally with the right to set its own destiny. The United States is right to provide Taiwan with active support, including military sales. But the U.S. must proceed with clarity as to the sensitivity with which Xi views Taiwan. He sees this nation as a breakaway province requiring submission under the communist flag. More than that, he sees Taiwan’s democratic existence as a potential inspiration for mainland political separatist movements. Something that would pose a long-term existential threat to the Communist Party’s survival. One way or another, Xi believes he must restore Taiwan to his dominion or risk losing that dominion entirely.
Let’s hope the State Department has thought this through.
