Recent success in Iraq has spelled trouble for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, whose campaign was born out of anti-war sentiment and who must now acknowledge improvements while also shifting focus to other issues of importance to voters.
“Barack Obama has a real problem with Iraq,” said Doug Schoen, a political pollster and former adviser to former President Bill Clinton.
The latest polls show a drastic turnaround in public opinion when it comes to the Iraq war, where an ongoing troop surge has reduced violence and helped stabilize the country.
A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey released Wednesday found that 37 percent of likely voters now believe the Iraq war will be viewed as a success, up from just 27 percent in the summer of 2007. The survey also found that 54 percent believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, compared with 39 percent a year ago.
The increased public confidence in Iraq undercuts Obama’s argument that he is a change agent who will end a misguided war. It also diminishes Obama’s claim that war in Iraq has been waged at the cost of reducing the threat of terrorism.
“Obama cannot account for the surge,” Schoen said. “The surge has worked and paid dividends, and that is very clear. He also doesn’t want to talk about an issue that is less important to the electorate. He should focus on the economy, which he is trying to do with mixed success.”
The war’s diminished importance could be hurting Obama among the all-important independent vote, political observers say. Recent polls show independents gravitating toward John McCain, who supported the surge and whose new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, has challenged Obama’s claim to the change mantle.
University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala said Obama may now hold less appeal to independent voters because his shift to domestic policy “makes him more like a traditional Democratic candidate and less like an independent agent for change.”
Political strategists say Obama should focus on health care, education, taxes and jobs while connecting poor economic indicators to the Bush administration.
“He needs to figure out how he can sound like an agent of change on the domestic level,” Scala said.
But Obama cannot skirt foreign policy issues either, said Duke University political science professor Peter Feaver, a former Bush security adviser.
“His problem is he is running for president and he has to pass the commander in chief litmus test, and McCain has done that,” Feaver said. “It’s a challenge, but Obama can talk about Iran and Afghanistan, Georgia and the rise of Russia.”
