It’s hard to believe, but there was a time when Republican presidential candidates had significant differences on taxes. George H.W. Bush famously called the supply-side theory behind Ronald Reagan’s tax policy “voodoo economics.” Perhaps Bush still believed that when he broke his no-tax-pledge as president in 1990.
Those days are long gone. Donald Trump appeared to be deviating from supply-side orthodoxy when he said that the rich weren’t paying enough in taxes, but the tax plan he released differed little from Jeb Bush’s (even on carried interest). The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has been sharply critical of the billionaire, said Trump’s plan is inconsistent with his record. They didn’t find much in the details to criticize on the merits. “Had Hillary or Bernie released a similar plan it would be met with overwhelming skepticism,” club president David McIntosh said.
Lower-tier Republican presidential candidates also remain committed to tax cuts. Rand Paul has introduced a flat tax with a lower rate than the one that put Steve Forbes on the map in 1996. You would expect a libertarian-leaning Republican to call for a uniform tax rate. But Rick Santorum, who is running as an economic populist trying to appeal to blue-collar voters, also supports one. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Santorum called the flat tax “the best path to prosperity.”
This consensus isn’t new. The entire 2012 Republican field said they would reject tax increases even if matched by $10 in spending cuts per $1 of additional revenue, even Jon Huntsman. Some differences remain, such as whether it’s better to expand the child tax credit or further lower marginal rates, but the party speaks with one voice on taxes.
Other fiscal issues have become dividing lines. One, surprisingly, is the deficit, a unifying issue among Republicans back when budget shortfalls exceeded $1 trillion annually in the early Obama administration. As short-term deficits have receded, so has Republican deficit hawkishness.
Few GOP tax plans are revenue-neutral. Many operate according to the quote attributed to Dick Cheney that Reagan taught us “deficits don’t matter.” Yet John Kasich is running on his experience delivering the last balanced budget and several candidates would amend the Constitution to require one.
Entitlement reform is also a contested issue. Chris Christie is running on the need to restructure Social Security and Medicare. Mike Huckabee says that would be theft and that we should cut congressional pensions first. He claims the reformers’ position is a politician’s way of saying, “Yup we’re going to make you end up paying for our sins.” Trump has said much the same thing, even calling Paul Ryan “anti-Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security,” though the billionaire says he’d keep his rich friends from collecting.
Newt Gingrich memorably ridiculed Bob Dole as the “tax collector for the welfare state.” Might the 2016 field identify Republican tax cutters for the welfare state?
