Republicans are not setting off alarm bells yet in Tennessee despite a new poll showing Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., trailing former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen by double digits.
According to a new poll by Middle Tennessee State University, Bredesen leads with 45 percent to Blackburn’s 35 percent. But while the race is viewed in some corners as winnable for Democrats, Republicans remain bullish about Blackburn’s chances in November. According to multiple GOP consultants and operatives, Bredesen is enjoying a distinct advantage in name identification, buoyed by his two-term governorship and month-long TV ad campaign.
“These numbers reflect the fact that Phil Bredesen is a known name in Tennessee,” said one GOP strategist. “Once Blackburn raises her name ID statewide, her ballot score will improve too.”
“A state that President Trump won by 26 points is not sending a Democrat to the U.S. Senate,” the strategist added.
Another strategist likened Blackburn’s situation to that of Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., back in 2016 when they trailed in name ID by double digits against well-known opponents in the early stages of their respective campaigns. Blackburn’s campaign is intent on painting Bredesen as out of step with Tennessee voters and too liberal.
“Phil Bredesen is trying to convince voters he’s a moderate Republican, but he will be first in line to support Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi’s liberal agenda. Tennesseans know Marsha Blackburn is the only candidate who will represent their conservative values in the U.S. Senate,” said Abbi Sigler, a Blackburn spokeswoman, in a statement. “Marsha will continue to work overtime, listening to Tennessee families and sharing her ideas on how we can get the Senate back to work and pass President Trump’s agenda.”
Most Republicans are not concerned about Blackburn and are pleased with her fundraising prowess in a cycle where GOP candidates are struggling mightily to attract campaign funds. In the last three months of 2017, Blackburn raked in $2 million and reported $4.6 million in the bank.
The poll results did spur one top Tennessee Republican into action, however. Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., came out hours later and endorsed Blackburn to join him in the upper chamber and make the Senate a “more effective institution.”
“I have supported Marsha Blackburn as a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, and I support her again as a candidate for the U.S. Senate. She has served Tennesseans well. I look forward to working with her to make the Senate a more effective institution,” Alexander said in a tweet.
One top Republican who has not endorsed Blackburn, however, is Sen. Bob Corker. The two-term Tennessee Republican plans to remain neutral in the GOP primary contest, but plans to support the party’s nominee in the fall against Bredesen.
Republicans also believe the poll is an outlier, given the polling that has emerged in recent months. The only other poll showing Bredesen ahead had him with a 2-point advantage back in mid-February. Other polls have had Blackburn ahead, including one by the Tennessee Star showing her with a 9-point lead.
Bredesen, a two-term governor, is a top recruit for Democrats as they look to flip the Senate. Republicans hold a 51-49 advantage after Sen. Doug Jones,’ D-Ala., win in December. Tennessee is one of only nine seats Republicans will defend in November, along with top bouts expected in Nevada and Arizona.
David M. Drucker contributed to this report
