WILL HE STAY OR WILL HE GO? Facing tomorrow’s deadline about whether to extend the oil and banking sanctions relief provided under the Iran nuclear deal, or fulfilling a campaign pledge by scrapping the agreement he has described as the “worst ever,” President Trump is leaning toward keeping the deal in place for now, while tightening the screws on some Iranian businesses and individuals, several reports suggest.
The Associated Press, which was first to report the compromise position, said it represents a consensus recommendation from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster.
“Trump is likely to pair his decision to renew the concessions to Tehran with new, targeted sanctions on Iranian businesses and people,” the AP reported. “The restrictions could hit some firms and individuals whose sanctions were scrapped under the 2015 nuclear agreement, a decision that could test Tehran’s willingness to abide by its side of the bargain.”
Trump technically decertified the nuclear deal under U.S. law known as the “Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act” in October, but left the sanctions relief in place. “The president said he is either going to fix it or cancel it,” Tillerson said of the deal in an AP interview last week. “We are in the process of trying to deliver on the promise he made to fix it.”
The AP reports “heated discussions” have been going on within the administration and with key Republican lawmakers, and that “no final decision had been made.”
EUROPEAN SIGNATORIES WANT US IN: In Brussels today the four European signatories to the agreement held an urgent meeting intended to send a strong signal to the U.S. to stick with the plan. Britain, France, Germany and the European Union met with representatives from Iran. Ahead of the meeting, Germany’s Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Europe and the United States should confront Tehran about its ballistic weapons program and its role in Syria’s civil war while keeping the 2015 nuclear deal, Reuters reported.
“We should separate two things from each other: we want to preserve the nuclear deal with Iran,” Gabriel said. “We want to speak with Iran about its role in the region, which is more than problematic.”
CALL ME, MAYBE: The White House put into formal language yesterday what Trump said casually over the weekend, namely that he’s open to talking to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. In a readout of a phone call between Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, the White House said, “President Trump expressed his openness to holding talks between the United States and North Korea at the appropriate time, under the right circumstances,” while emphasizing that Moon and Trump “underscored the importance of continuing the maximum pressure campaign against North Korea.”
At his Cabinet meeting later in the morning, Trump noted that Moon was “very thankful for what we’ve done” to facilitate the first talks with North Korea in two years. “We were the ones — without our attitude, that would have never happened,” Trump said, but he made no mention of direct U.S.- North Korean negotiations. “Who knows where it leads. Hopefully it’ll lead to success for the world. Not just for our country, but for the world. And we’ll be seeing over the next number of weeks and months what happens.”
PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE: While the U.S. says any talks with the North have to be based on the underlying premise that they would eventually lead to North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons and curbing its missile program, Pyongyang continues to send a consistent message that it will never capitulate to international pressure, and instead is seeking a peace deal that would allow it to keep its growing arsenal.
“The nuclear deterrent of the DPRK [North Korea] is the life and soul of the nation. It cannot be bartered for anything,” said the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper. In a separate editorial it said, “The U.S. would be well advised to rack its brain for seeking out a way for coexistence with the DPRK, a nuclear weapons state both in name and reality, instead of precipitating its ruin with its bluffing and reckless and foolish acts.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
THORNBERRY FLOATS FLEXIBLE DOD SPENDING: Congress is more than three months late in passing an annual defense budget. The delay has Rep. Mac Thornberry, the House Armed Services chairman, worried that the Pentagon will not have time to spend any new operations and maintenance funding for aircraft, ships and training before the money expires at the end of September. “They will receive a large percentage of their funding without much time left … you either have the choice of spending a lot of stuff fast or not spending it,” Thornberry said. “So, I think we need to work with appropriators and others to figure out in this situation how to give them some more flexibility.”
Armed Services staff have been in contact with the Pentagon about the possibility, Thornberry said. The operations and maintenance account could end up with about $190 million. But any final funding amounts for the military remain up in the air as lawmakers wrangle over a 2018 omnibus spending bill and immigration reform. Different buckets of Pentagon funding have deadlines attached and the O&M account money must be spent in the same fiscal year that it is appropriated by Congress. “I’m concerned that our maintenance and other readiness problems are so severe that we can’t afford to let money just set there or to spend it foolishly,” Thornberry said.
BILLION-DOLLAR AUDIT: House lawmakers are applauding the Pentagon’s effort to finally undergo a full audit, even though Defense Department Comptroller David Norquist said the effort could lead to almost $1 billion in costs this year. Those costs include $367 million on the actual audit process that was announced and launched by Norquist last month. He also testified Wednesday to the House Armed Services Committee that the military expects to pay $551 million to fix the problems uncovered by the audit, which will likely involve defense and military systems that are not properly storing or transmitting data such as property records. “The [$551 million] number comes from talking to the services about what funding they have planned for this year and whether they have it in the budget to address these requirements,” Norquist said.
About $181 million of the audit cost will be paid out to contractors. Norquist pointed out that the bill only accounts for 1/30 of one percent of the Pentagon’s budget and is equivalent to what Fortune 100 companies spend on audit work.
IT’S WORTH IT: Rep. Mac Thornberry said the investment in an audit will allow better accounting and more cost-saving reforms down the road. “If you have things that need to be fixed they need to be fixed, and hiding your head in the sand is not a good answer,” Thornberry told the Washington Examiner. “Particularly at the beginning it will be expensive, but I’m firmly of the view that it will pay off for the taxpayers and for the warfighters over time.” He also cautioned that it is “likely that the result of the first audit will not be pretty.” In an earlier initial audit, for example, the Army found 39 Black Hawk helicopters that weren’t on the books, according to Norquist.
FOR ISIS, A CHOICE OF DEATH BY SHOVEL: The U.S. military has the most technologically advanced weapon systems in the world at the tip of its fingers. But it will not rule out using decidedly more low-tech means, like a shovel, to take out Islamic State fighters, according to Army Command Sgt. Maj. John Wayne Troxell, the military’s most senior noncommissioned officer. “ISIS needs to understand that the Joint Force is on orders to annihilate them. So, they have two options should they decide to come up against the United States, our allies and partners: surrender or die!” Troxell wrote on Facebook.
Surrender will mean a detention cell, food, a cot and due process, Troxell explained in the post, clearly trying to sell it as the more attractive option. “If they choose not to surrender, then we will kill them with extreme prejudice, whether that be through security force assistance, by dropping bombs on them, shooting them in the face, or beating them to death with our entrenching tools.” Troxell, who is the military’s senior enlisted adviser to Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford, sent the message out on Facebook and Twitter. It was accompanied by a photo of a soldier holding an entrenching tool with the hashtag #ISIS_SurrenderOrDie.
DEATH FROM THE SKY IN YEMEN: The U.S. continues to methodically target terrorist leaders in Yemen, separate from the Saudi-led war against Houthi rebels. U.S. Central Command has announced that airstrikes in recent weeks have taken out several key Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leaders. External operations facilitator Miqdad al Sana’ani was killed in an airstrike Dec. 15 in al-Bayda governorate. And four days later Habib al-Sana’ani, identified as an AQAP deputy arms facilitator, was killed in an airstrike in Marib governorate. And in November Abu Umar al-Sana’ani, an AQAP Dawah committee member, was killed in al-Bayda governorate.
MOVING OUT: The Army has announced its troop rotations for the spring and summer of this year. The following units have received deployment orders:
- 10th Mountain Division Headquarters, stationed at Fort Drum, N.Y., to Iraq in the spring
- 101st Airborne Division Headquarters stationed at Fort Campbell, Ky., to Afghanistan in the spring
- 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division stationed at Fort Stewart, Ga., to South Korea in the spring
- 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division stationed at Fort Hood, Texas, to Europe in the summer
ISSUED IN ERROR IT WAS: A Pentagon memo replete with “Star Wars” references was recalled and stripped of its allusions to the galaxy far, far away, Bloomberg reported yesterday. In the short-lived original version, Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan appeared to be having a little fun with a formal announcement of the new Central Cloud Computing Program Office (C3PO) to “acquire the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) Cloud,” combining the Pentagon’s penchant for acronyms with playful references to the popular sci-fi franchise. “C3PO is authorized to obligate funds as necessary in support of the JEDI Cloud,” Shanahan wrote in the memo, according to Bloomberg.
The memo was quickly recalled because “it was issued in error,” said Shanahan’s spokesman, and killjoy Navy Capt. Jeff Davis.
‘BIG-ASS’ QUESTION: Trump seemed to have no idea what a Norwegian journalist was talking about when he asked Trump to explain what Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller meant by a pep talk Neller gave Marines last month during a troop visit to Norway.
“Neller told his Marines based in Norway, ‘There’s a war coming, a big-ass fight.’ Mr. President, how imminent is that big war? And where will it take place?” the reporter asked. Trump at first seemed flummoxed. “Maybe he knows something I don’t know,” he said.
Then he went on to say he doesn’t anticipate a new war anytime soon. “No, I don’t expect that. I think we’ll have, because of strength, peace through strength, I think we’ll have a long period of peace. I hope we do,” Trump said. “That’s my opinion. That’s not the general’s opinion. But I think my opinion counts more right now.”
Neller visited a Marine base in Norway during his Christmas tour and made his comments as an exhortation to the Marines to be ready at all times to fight, Military.com reported.
MUST-SEE TV: The Pentagon’s internal news service is giving a five-star review to a new documentary series on the National Geographic Channel called “Chain of Command.” The initial episode was screened at the Newseum this week. “The National Geographic film crews had incredible access,” said a Pentagon article about the debut of the first of eight installments called “By, With, and Through.”
“The National Geographic crew received access to some places not usually photographed, such as the Combined Air Operations Center, and placed a camera aboard an F-22 Raptor doing missions over Mosul. In the Pentagon, they videotaped inside the Tank, and videotaped conversations among advisers at an in-house think tank dedicated to developing strategy,” the Pentagon says.
THE RUNDOWN
Politico: Military investigating shooting in newly leaked Afghan combat video
AP: Russian gains in Syria threatened by series of rebel attacks
Military.com: ‘Not A Truck’: Future Amphibs May Carry Fewer Marines, More Lethality
War on the Rocks: Speaking Loudly and Carrying a Little Stick: The Myopic U.S. Debate about Iran
DoD Buzz: Navy Has Choice: More Ships or Fewer Missions, Surface Commander Says
Foreign Policy: Meet the Mild-Mannered Spy Who Made Himself the ‘American James Bond’
Defense One: Boeing Experimenting with Cargo Drones
USNI News: LPD Portland Will Host ONR Laser Weapon Demonstrator, Serve as RIMPAC 2018 Flagship
Daily Beast: McMaster Rushes to Save the Iran Deal That Trump Promised to Kill
Defense News: Lawmakers chide U.S. Navy on step back from transparency
Wall Street Journal: South Korea, After Talks With North, Concedes Differences With Trump
Stars and Stripes: Secret bitcoin philanthropist backs research of ecstasy as treatment for PTSD
New York Times: Surveillance and Privacy Debate Reaches Pivotal Moment in Congress
Calendar
THURSDAY | JAN. 11
7:30 a.m. 2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy. 30th Annual National Symposium of the Surface Navy Association with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer and James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition. navysna.org
9 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Past and Future of South Asian Crises with Rep. Ami Bera, vice ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. stimson.org
9:15 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Iran’s Protests and Their Impact on the Arab Region. press.org
9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Challenging Guantanamo. press.org
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. U.S. Policy in Syria Post-ISIS with Ambassador David Satterfield. foreign.senate.gov
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Ron DeSantis discusses President Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”: Is Israeli-Palestinian Peace Possible? heritage.org
12 p.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. AFCEA Washington, D.C. luncheon with Lt. Gen. Alan Lynn , director of the Defense Information Systems Agency. dc.afceachapters.org
12 p.m. 1800 M St. NW. Countering Hezbollah’s Transnational Criminal Enterprise. defenddemocracy.org
2:30 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Guantanamo Under Trump. Newamerica.org
4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW. Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz speaks on the role of nuclear weapons in today’s global security environment at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS.org
FRIDAY | JAN. 12
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Assessing the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy. heritage.org
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. All You Need to Know about Russian Hackers. wilsoncenter.org
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion of “Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony” with author Kori Schake. csis.org
TUESDAY | JAN. 16
8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Rep. Mac Thornberry. defensewriters.gwu.edu
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Pakistan, America, and extremism: The path ahead
12 p.m. 1800 M St. NW. National Security in the Age of Blockchain. defenddemocracy.org
12:15 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The Future of Euro-Atlantic Conditionality. newamerica.org
12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Iran Protests: Consequences for the Region and Opportunities for the Trump Administration. hudson.org
3 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. Emergency Management in Japan: Prospects for US-Japan Cooperation. stimson.org
5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The View of the U.S. from Abroad: A Conversation with International Ambassadors. csis.org
WEDNESDAY | JAN. 17
6:45 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Hwy. Special Topic Breakfast with Gloria Valdez, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for ship programs. navyleague.org
8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Congress and the 2018 national security landscape: A conversation with Sen. Lindsey Graham. aei.org
9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Getting Ahead of the Threat Curve: Duty of Care and Organizational Accountability for Nuclear Security with Michael Chertoff, former Homeland Security secretary. stimson.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Bully of Asia: Why China’s Dream Is the New Threat to World Order. heritage.org
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. NATO’s maritime frontier and a view from its maritime command with Vice Adm. Clive Johnstone, Royal Navy commander Allied Maritime Command. atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | JAN. 18
8 a.m. 2121 Crystal Dr. Electronics Division Meeting. ndia.org
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE. Crashback: The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in the Pacific. heritage.org
5 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE.The Importance of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent. heritage.org
