Scat Daddy will win Saturday’s 133rd Kentucky Derby over Zanjero with Curlin third.
That was easy. A deuce on Scat Daddy should pay $20. The triple might return $10,000. Found money, baby. A day’s pay for a K Street lobbyist, but good dough for the rest of us.
As a 24-year veteran of the Triple Crown who covered 20 straight Derbies, trying to pick a 20-horse field is the toughest challenge in sports. Anything and everything can happen from injuries to bad trips to bad luck. The best horse rarely wins the Derby. The horse with the best luck and even better trip usually does. Maybe that explains why I rarely left Louisville with any money.
The Derby is the one race Americans still pause two minutes to watch. People bet on favorite names like Sedgefield or Teuflesberg. Imawildandcrazyguy is for Steve Martin fans now thinking a flowered shirt, black socks and Corona beer at cookout qualifies as such. I can only imagine Queen Elizabeth sitting along Millionaire’s Row choosing between Great Hunter and Bwana Bull. Bet she’ll wear a killer Derby hat.
For serious fans, finding a stalker who can jump up at the top of the stretch is the goal. Winners rarely come from far back in the Derby. Very few frontrunners can last the entire 1 1/4 miles, either. Those awaiting their chance as leaders fade are often the ones to back.
Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby in similar fashion, taking the lead at the top of the stretch. His four other career victories came largely the same way. Jockey EdgarPrado, who left the Maryland circuit years back to become one of the nation’s best, chose Scat Daddy. Experienced jockeys are so important in the Derby because of the crowded field. At 10-1, Scat Daddy is a real value.
Zanjero is 30-1 following three straight seconds. The colt endured early traffic problems only to fly up late and has trained very well lately. Sleepers aren’t unusual in the Derby. Zanjero is the “now” horse that could surprise.
Curlin is a trap play. His speed is so inviting. Coupled with the No. 2 post, the early favorite could steal the race early. However, three career starts leaves him unprepared for the roughly-run race. Curlin will be caught at “Heartbreak Lane” entering the stretch. The shorter Preakness Stakes might be his race.
What about Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz or Circular Quay? They all have a chance. Half the field has a shot. That’s why it’s called gambling.
Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Contact him at [email protected].
