Liberal pundits couldn’t help but scratch their heads after the Georgia special election, befuddled that the Republicans were able to win all four special elections to defend their House seats despite what they perceived as Trump being a very unpopular sitting President.
Almost to ad nauseam, it’s been repeated that Trump’s approval numbers were in the mid-30’s and his unpopularity was endangering the Republicans majority in the House in 2018.
These poll results are slightly disingenuous, often times the data that have rock bottom numbers are one that asks all American adults about their feelings on the President instead of the ones that just ask registered voters, who are the people who actually decide elections.
Polls that ask all Americans regardless if they’re registered to vote like Gallup, CBS, Ipsos, and NBC/Wall Street Journal which have Trump at 37 percent, 36 percent, 37 percent, and 37 percent, respectively. An overall average of about 37 percent approval and a disapproval of about 57 percent. While it’s useful information, it doesn’t reflect the electorate and is not the best indicator for how election results will turnout.
When ask just registered and likely voters, polls like Rasmussen, YouGov, Morning Consult, Pew Research, Survey Monkey, and Public Policy Polling (PPP) show Trump with significantly higher approval ratings and lower disapproval ratings: 46 percent, 43 percent, 44 percent, 42 percent, 45 percent, and 41 percent, respectively. In these polls, Trump has an average approval rating of about 44 percent and disapproval of 53 percent.
With registered and likely voters, Trump has a deficit of nine points which is bad but nowhere near as fatal as the 20 point gap with all Americans that the media keeps citing.
Furthermore weighing on these polls is that their national and Trump’s approval varies greatly from state-to-state. PPP’s national poll stated that Trump has a 41 percent approval rating but their poll of Nevada, a state Trump lost, had him at 44 percent favorable and 50 unfavorable, meaning even in this swing state the President was decently popular.
Republicans and Trump should be worried about his overall approval, but it’s not as bad as the media is broadcasting.
