Win or lose in Virginia, Republicans are convinced education is their ticket to recovering lost ground in the suburbs and reclaiming control of Congress in 2022.
Virginians head to the polls Tuesday, and the race for governor is tight. But even if Republican Glenn Youngkin comes up short against Democrat Terry McAuliffe, GOP strategists contend what they have witnessed in that campaign proves education is a potent issue that is reversing the suburban slide they experienced under former President Donald Trump and positioning them to win back the House and Senate in midterm elections.
“Whether Youngkin wins or not, this is a great model,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a coalition of centrist Republicans that regularly polls battleground House districts and is occasionally critical of Trump. “Every time it comes down to education, the Republicans win because the Democrats are too far left.”
The Democratic Party has historically enjoyed an advantage over the Republicans on the issue of education, especially as it relates to public schools. But Republicans argue the coronavirus pandemic flipped that dynamic upside down.
School closures and inadequate virtual education programs sparked frustration among parents. That furor motivated parents to demand more input in how their children’s public schools were managed. That, in turn, led to more parental scrutiny of school boards and teachers unions, which led to yet more disappointment with how their demands and concerns were being addressed — or, from their point of view, ignored.
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For those with children, access to quality public schools and avoiding pricey private school tuition are primary reasons for moving to the suburbs. That dynamic can boost home values and thus family wealth and financial security. Top-rated public schools can drive up the cost of a suburban home and affect its resale cost. The reverse is true, too: Crumbling public schools can drive home values down and cause financial insecurity.
With President Joe Biden in the White House, Democrats in charge of Congress, and the Democratic Party strongly allied with the teachers unions, Republicans have vowed to prioritize parental concerns about public schools and empower parents to make changes at the local level. The message is resonating in the Virginia governor’s race and in recently Democratic enclaves such as the suburbs of Washington, D.C., and Richmond, GOP insiders say. Their claim is supported by McAuliffe’s defensiveness.
Republicans say Virginia is not the only state in which they will focus on education, nor the only state in which this focus will help them win campaigns.
“This is a middle-income, working family issue,” said Ron Wright, co-founder of Suburban Virginia Coalition PAC and a member of the Virginia Republican Party’s state central committee. “It’s definitely going to have legs.”
Youngkin, 54, is a wealthy businessman making his first run for public office. McAullife, 64, served one term as governor and is attempting to win his old job back (under Virginia law, governors may not serve consecutive terms but are permitted to serve more than one term). The polls show a race that is virtually tied, with Youngkin surging despite Biden beating Trump in the commonwealth last November by nearly 11 percentage points.
Republicans believe the rise of critical race theory as a part of public school curricula and their opposition to it are other pieces of the puzzle that have given them the upper hand over Democrats on the issue of education. Critical race theory emphasizes race and ethnicity in the teaching of American history and current events and politics, and it makes some parents uncomfortable, especially those educated in an era that deemphasized the significance of race.
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Republicans who specialize in suburban campaigns underscore that, on its own, opposition to critical race theory is not a vote-driver. But when combined with existing dissatisfaction with public schools, parents who were exposed to their children’s lesson plans because of pandemic lockdowns that kept families at home for extended periods have found another example of what they believe to be mismanaged public schools and misguided school boards.
“Republicans generally don’t care about education as a top issue. They do now,” a Republican strategist said.
