President Joe Biden on Wednesday suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin was likely to invade Ukraine.
As Biden put it, “My guess is he will move in; he has to do something.”
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Biden’s words are not surprising. While orders have not yet been issued to Russian military commanders, their force disposition is highly concerning. The deployed forces are combined arms in nature, number more than 100,000 in troop strength, and surround Ukraine from the north, south, and east. They could take action on very short notice.
Biden’s comments are likely informed by two broader considerations.
First, they could be informed by classified intelligence assessments indicating Russian war preparations are escalating rapidly. These preparations are part and parcel of Russian strategic doctrine in anticipation of major military operations. The Russian defense ministry, general staff, and intelligence services are ramping up their high-intensity war-fighting command and control structures. Preparatory/shaping cyber-intrusions on the most capable Russian cyber units are also underway. The U.S. and British intelligence communities are aware of this activity, and thus so is Biden — although Russia is attempting to hide much of it from their detection. One concern is that the scale of preparations indicate Russia may intend to launch a major attack designed to seize Ukraine proper rather than a more limited area of the country.
Second, Biden will be aware that Putin’s ideological conception of Ukraine and the West, and his own position as Russian leader, give him inducement to escalate rather than back down. Putin has staked a great deal on either extracting concessions that the United States cannot make or isolating Ukraine from the Western security orbit. That forces Putin to choose between military action and backing down, which Putin will regard as politically toxic.
Put simply, a near-term Russian invasion of Ukraine remains highly likely. On that count, Biden needs to do far more to deter that probable action. His suggestion that a “minor incursion” by Russia would not result in major sanctions was foolish and reflective of his Ukraine policy’s deeper shortcomings.
