Elite economists think the U.S. will have to cut entitlement programs or raise taxes on the middle class to shore up the government’s finances in the long run, according to a new survey published Tuesday.
Fifty-five percent of academic economists asked by the University of Chicago’s IGM Forum responded that it would be necessary to cut promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or to raise taxes on households earning less than $250,000 to ensure long-run fiscal sustainability in the U.S.
Only 2 percent of the economists surveyed disagreed. About one in five were uncertain.
The results indicate the dramatic differences between the views of academic economists and the current campaign rhetoric. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have said that they would not cut Medicare or Social Security benefits. Clinton has said she won’t raise taxes on households earning less than $250,000, while Trump has promised tax cuts for all.
“The math becomes uglier (and more inevitable) after 2020,” responded Steven Kaplan, a professor at the University of Chicago.
Not all the economists agreed, however. David Cutler, a Harvard economist and former adviser to President Obama, said healthcare programs could be made more efficient, “whch would obviate the need for tax increases for some time.”
Obama won office campaigning, as Clinton is, on a promise not to raise taxes on household incomes under $250,000. During his tenure, the debt grew as a share of the economy, and spending on Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid grew as a share of the budget.
