Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has returned home from Washington with a $60 million U.S. arms package. Russia, however, is hinting to the Biden administration that it should prepare for a new escalation against Ukraine.
On Wednesday, expanding on an in-depth essay from July, President Vladimir Putin again referenced Ukraine as an inextricable part of Russia’s “common future.” Also on Wednesday, Russian state TV’s top current affairs show offered heavy negative coverage on the $60 million U.S. arms package.
On Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that “Washington’s use of Kyiv as an anti-Russian weapon can lead to very predictable and sad consequences. And the consequences, in this case, I mean for Ukraine.” Echoing Putin’s mythos of a Ukraine that belongs to Russia, Zakharova added that Zelensky is embracing a “loss of historical identification.”
Putin’s chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, also lamented the situation. Peskov said Russia fears that the U.S. arms could “be the reason for the unpredictable actions of the Ukrainian side, in terms of attempts to forcefully resolve the internal Ukrainian conflict in the southeast [of the country]. This is very dangerous.”
This coordinated rhetoric suggests that Biden should expect a near-term Russian test of his resolve in Ukraine. Putin is increasingly frustrated by Zelensky’s refusal to adopt Russian-favorable concessions in relation to the conflict in southeastern Ukraine. Russia is also alarmed at U.S. rhetoric that suggests a possible openness to Ukraine joining NATO (although this remains very unlikely in the near-medium term).
Still, Moscow has means of leveraging its pressure beyond rhetoric.
The Russian military retains a significant combined-arms combat presence just a few hours’ drive from Ukraine’s northern and southeastern borders. The Russian navy also recently deployed a regiment of air-to-ground fighter jets to the Crimean peninsula.
Also a problem is Biden’s hesitancy both to support Ukraine and to resist Putin’s intimidation. While it is positive that Biden met with Zelensky and gave him new weapons, Biden hasn’t shown much courage in other areas relevant to Ukraine. For one thing, that meeting had been long delayed. In striking contrast to a courageous British naval transit, for example, Biden canceled the deployment of two U.S. Navy destroyers to the Black Sea. Biden also handed the Russian leader a huge strategic win by dropping U.S. sanctions against the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Biden then made things considerably worse by cutting a ludicrous deal with Germany that does next to nothing to protect Ukraine from the negative effects of Nord Stream 2.
This waltz of weakness will take on added import in Putin’s mind following Biden’s calamitous evacuation from Afghanistan. Contrary to claims by Biden and his supporters that Afghanistan is an issue separate and distinct from other concerns such as China and Russia, the president’s credibility has suffered greatly over the past few weeks. Biden has appeared disinterested and unreliable to allies and deferential to American enemies. It’s a particularly poor perception to send to Putin.
Put simply, Biden should expect a near-term test in Ukraine. Unless he responds with speed and strength, Putin will escalate.
