A top pollster is leaning toward Sen. Raphael Warnock winning reelection and defeating Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a race now heading toward a runoff.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said on ABC News’s This Week that he sees merit in betting markets, which are showing a 70% chance that Warnock will keep his seat. If Warnock wins, it will be the first time that no Georgia senator incumbent has lost since 1914.
Silver pointed to Warnock’s 49.5%-48.5% advantage in the first round of voting. He said that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s reelection may have helped bring Republican voters to the polls but that Kemp will not be on the runoff ballot for Warnock and Walker.
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Warnock also may see history repeat itself in the runoff. He won his runoff in 2020 against appointed incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler.
Silver said there are some factors leaning in Walker’s favor, such as Libertarian voters, who typically lean conservative. They brought in 2.1% in the first voting round for their candidate, Chase Oliver. However, Silver said exit polls showed most Libertarian voters thought Walker’s views were “too extreme.”
.@NateSilver538 breaks down the Senate runoff in Georgia between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.
“I think it’s anybody’s race but I’m going with the bookies here and I do think Warnock is the favorite.” https://t.co/HbaSRgaUSn pic.twitter.com/LuMxzuL81s
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 13, 2022
“I think it’s anybody’s race, but I’m going with the bookies here, and I do think Warnock is the favorite,” Silver said.
The Georgia runoff is set for Dec. 6. Senate Democrats have already pumped $7 million into the race, and Republicans have already begun launching ads attacking Warnock, with the latest calling him a “great actor.”
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Several Republicans are hoping for support for Walker to come from GOP leaders such as Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had successful personal and state victories in the midterm elections, and not from former President Donald Trump, who has all but formally declared that he is intending to run for president in 2024. He is set to make an announcement on Nov. 15.
