As the pundits and analysts continue to crunch final polling tallies, it turns out a series of seemingly random events have an excellent track record of predicting who will win the White House.
Since 1936, when the Washington Redskins win their final home game before the election, the party of the incumbent president retains the presidency.
Predictor’s record of success: 18 out of 20, or 90 percent
Prediction: Washington Redskins beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20.
Winner: Hillary Clinton
The stock market effect
Since 1928, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index does not post a gain in the three months leading up to Election Day, the incumbent party candidate normally loses.
Predictor’s Record of Success: 19 out of 22, or 86 percent
Prediction: S&P is down about 4 percent since early August.
Winner: Donald Trump
The World Series winner
From 1952 to 1976, a Republican candidate was elected president every time an American League team won the World Series in an election year, while the Democrats won the series when a National League team prevailed.
Predictor’s Record of Success: 1908-2012, 15-27 times, or 55.6 percent. But since 2000, four for four, or 100 percent
Prediction: National League Chicago Cubs won the World Series.
Winner: Hillary Clinton
The Family Circle cookie contest
Family Circle magazine holds a cookie contest for potential/current first ladies (and gentlemen). The winners are picked by readers, and the cookie contest winner has gone to the White House almost every year.
Predictor’s Record of Success: five out of six since 1992, or 83 percent
Prediction: The Clinton family’s chocolate chip oatmeal cookies bested Melania Trump’s star cookies
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Geda, The psychic Chinese monkey
Local legend has pegged Geda as a mystical monkey with prophetic insight and an excellent record of correctly predicting European soccer matches. Geda — whose name means “goose bumps” — cast his vote by selecting bananas beside life-size cutouts of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
“After ‘deliberate thought,’ the mystic monkey chose Mr. Trump,” Shiyanhu Ecological Tourism Park said. “Without even waiting, he congratulated the cardboard candidate with a kiss on the lips.”
Predictor’s Record of Success: While has a 100 percent track record for soccer matches, this is his first foray into American presidential politics.
Prediction and winner: Donald Trump
So who will be the next president?
On the “bizarre predictors” scale: it’s Clinton over Trump 3-2.
