President Joe Biden would lose to former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head 2024 election, the 12th straight month of losses driven by economic uncertainty, according to the national McLaughlin and Associates survey.
Pollster John McLaughlin told Secrets on Friday that Trump’s 48%-44% lead is a bad sign for Biden, who would only receive 26% of the Democratic primary vote.
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“President Biden is in big trouble. He’s losing to Trump 48%-44% and is very vulnerable to a primary,” said the Republican pollster.
The economy continues to dominate politics and Biden’s future. Friday’s inflation report showed that it remains hot.
The survey said that voters, by a margin of 65%-30%, believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. And 79% said their household finances have been affected by the slumping economy.
Biden’s favorable rating is 44%, stuck where it’s been for months. Some 52% have an unfavorable view of him, according to the survey shared with Secrets on Friday.
The president’s support of just 26% in a 2024 primary vote is about where it has been for over a year, and there is no big challenger cited in the survey, with the exception of former first lady Michelle Obama, who has ruled out a run.
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As for Trump, 57% of Republicans want him to run again, his lowest support in 21 months. But if he ran, 76% of Republicans would support him.
In a GOP primary, Trump continues to dominate nationally. He tops Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 42%-26% among all Republicans. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley gets 6%. Likely challenger and former Vice President Mike Pence gets 5%.
And in a head-to-head with DeSantis, it’s Trump 56% to 38% for DeSantis.
McLaughlin said that it would be a mistake to underestimate Trump, who has drawn lots of media stories doubting his ability to win in 2024. “In 2016, the political establishment told us right through the end that Trump couldn’t win. Now, they are going all out because they are afraid he will win,” he said.
The pollster, who has worked for Trump, added, “Donald Trump still represents the working families of the heartland of America who the establishment elites keep exploiting. Over the past two years, for the first two years, America has gone backwards. Inflation is too high, the economy is weak, the border is wide open, crime is increasing, and young men and women are dying from fentanyl. America’s working middle class is angry.”
