Veterans of Iowa’s raucous and volatile presidential caucuses are treating the latest polls with all the reverence of a trashy summer romance novel.
New York businessman/entertainer Donald Trump has jumped out in front, with 19.3 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers, according to the RealClearPolitics.com average. The GOP operatives who claim ambivalence about this don’t work for Trump, of course, so it’s possible they’ve got an ax to grind. But Iowans have a history of turning summer slackers into winter winners, so there’s something to be said for the healthy skepticism some have expressed about the latest surveys.
“If you’re hot when its hot, then you’re cold when it’s cold, and people vote when it’s cold,” said Hogan Gidley, spokesman for GOP contender Mike Huckabee, who was the surprise caucus winner when he first ran for president 2008. “The caucuses are in [February.”]
Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, was sitting in eighth place Friday in the RealClearPolitics.com average, with 5 percent, trailing Trump; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (11.7 percent); Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (11 percent); businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (8 percent, each); and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (7 percent, each).
The Iowa average experienced a shake-up last week following the first Republican presidential debate, which aired Aug. 6 on Fox News. Walker, No. 1 there for most of the year, dropped to third, with Trump leapfrogging to the top, and Carson rising into to No. 2. Besides Walker’s slide, Bush, a national frontrunner, caused a stir by dropping to as low as 5 percent in some of the individual Iowa caucus polls conducted post-debate.
Bush was undaunted. He rolled out another slate of Bush campaign county chairmen, to go along with his agriculture industry leadership team announced the week before. Bush mixed it up with voters and the press at the Iowa State Fair, even giving out his email address so that potential caucus-goers could contact him directly.
“Jeb has a strong team in Iowa, and good volunteer leadership. This is part of the blocking and tackling you have to do to be successful in the caucuses,” said an Iowan who supports Bush.
“The campaign isn’t focused on polls,” added this individual, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Iowa has a history of volatile polling. Building a team of county leaders demonstrates that Jeb is committed to fighting hard in Iowa. These county leaders aren’t just supporters, they’re the front line organizers you need to do well on caucus night.”
Bush and Huckabee (among others) are both counting on superior organizations, and the intense, retail politicking Iowans expect, to close the deal down the stretch. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 1, and Iowans’ tend to weigh their votes differently in the fall and winter than they do in the spring and summer. That’s not lost on Trump’s campaign, which is run by experienced caucus organizer Chuck Laudner, who led winner Rick Santorum’s Iowa campaign in 2012.
Isaiah McGee, a Republican operative in Des Moines, said it’s far too early to anoint a front-runner — or rule anyone out. As with every winner in the past, it’s about connecting with voters on the issues as well as personally, and assembling the organization to capitalize. Look for candidates to rise and fall in the months to come, just as they have in years past.
“It reminds me a lot of four years ago, with the flavor of the month. It will be interesting since we don’t have the straw poll to winnow people out,” McGee said.
In August of 2011, that flavor of the month was Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann. She won the presidential straw poll, considered a major accomplishment by her underdog campaign. She finished sixth in the caucuses five months later and dropped out of the race. The winnowing occurred with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who exited the 2012 race after finishing third in the straw poll. Santorum, who finished fourth, would end up winning the caucuses.
The straw poll, held every four years by the Iowa Republican Party, was cancelled this year due to candidate disinterest. Most major candidates were loathe to participate and chance a disappointing showing that might prematurely cripple their campaign. Instead, the candidates are spending time this month at the Iowa State Fair.
Trump, in a feud with the Des Moines register, is refusing to address the crowd from the newspaper’s sponsored “soapbox” stage. But he was scheduled to wander the fair meeting and greeting voters on Saturday, and, according to a campaign press release: “He will be seeing the butter cow.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
