It’s too early to determine if it is a trend or “blip,” but a survey of Republican voters following last week’s GOP debate has found a “softening” of support for former President Donald Trump.
While Trump remains the leader in the primaries by a wide margin, the Emerson College Poll shared with Secrets said that his support faded, likely taken by challengers former Vice President Mike Pence, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), and Nikki Haley.
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“There appears to be a softening of support for Trump since last week’s survey, where 82% of Trump voters said they would definitely support him, compared to 71% after the debate,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“The question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season,” he added.
There have been several surveys since the Fox GOP debate and Trump’s counterprogramming on Tucker Carlson’s X account. All have shown Trump still in the lead, and by a mile. But some have also shown a new voter interest in challengers, notably Vivek Ramaswamy and Haley.
A Kaplan Strategies survey shared with Secrets this morning, for example, had Trump’s support in the GOP at 45%, followed by Ramaswamy at 13%, DeSantis at 10%, and Haley at 8%.
NATIONAL POLL
2024 GOP Primary
Trump 50%
DeSantis 12%
Ramaswamy 9%
Pence 7%
Haley 7%
Christie 5%
Scott 2%
Burgum 1%
Hutchinson 1%
8% undecidedhttps://t.co/osBTniAYtu pic.twitter.com/dUvE4RHDPg— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 28, 2023
In the Emerson survey, Trump was at 50%, though Kimball noted that it was the lowest for the former president in its polls of the 2024 GOP race.
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He suggested that there is an opening for Trump’s challengers in the wake of the debate.
“Different candidates have been able to pull varying demographic support from the Trump base, for example Mike Pence who saw an overall four-point bump in voter support was able to increase his support in the Midwest from 4% to 13% of the vote, while Trump saw his Midwest support drop from 54% to 42% after the debate,” Kimball said. “Nikki Haley’s support increased from about 2% to 9% among voters over 50 while Trump’s support dropped within this age group from about 56% to 49% after the debate,” he added.
