A brutal heat wave that has racked the Washington area has resulted in a rise in both crime-related killings and heat-related deaths, according to police and area health officials.
In D.C., there have been 18 homicides so far in June, compared to 12 in all of last June. Nine of the killings have come in the last 10 days, when the District suffered 10 consecutive days of 90-plus degrees on its way to the hottest June on record.
The heat was also causing health problems in Virginia, which already has more heat-related deaths than were recorded all last year.
On Sunday, temperatures hit 99 degrees, and they topped out at 97 Monday. Tuesday’s forecast calls for another day of 90-plus degrees.
Is there a correlation between murders and muggy D.C. summers?
Crime in general increases during the summer, said Ellen G. Cohn, a professor at Florida International University who has examined connections between weather and crime for more than two decades.
Especially during an abnormal and prolonged heat wave.
“That creates frustration,” she said, “and that can lead to anger and violence.”
But no study has been able to show a direct connection between weather and homicides, she said.
Higher temperatures aren’t the only factor in summertime crime spikes, criminologists said. Children and young adults aren’t in school, the days are longer and more people are outside, and people are often less vigilant about safety on vacation, Cohn said.
“There are more people available to be criminals and more people available to be victims,” she said.
But once it gets too hot, Cohn said, the violence can drop off.
“Finding cool becomes more important than avenging an insult,” she said.
That hasn’t happened so far this year in the District, where homicides are up by 50 percent for the month. Regionwide, homicides this month are up 19 percent over last year.
When the city was experiencing its coolest summer in decades last year, D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier bristled at any suggestion that the mild temperatures were helping cut down the number of homicides, calling the notion “idiotic” and attributing the decrease in killings to good police work.
She did not return messages Tuesday.
George Washington University criminologist Paul Butler, a former federal prosecutor, said criminologists and police chiefs have to be careful to not overclaim the cause of a spike or reduction in homicides, whether its police strategy, the weather or the economy.
Law enforcement has become good at reducing homicides among strangers, which represent about half of all murders, Butler said.
“It’s harder to reduce homicides between people who know each other, and those homicides are more affected by weather,” Butler said.
The heat-related killings include a drowning in D.C. Last week, a 6-year-old girl died while swimming at the Turkey Thicket Recreation Center in Northeast D.C.
Maryland and Virginia have each seen three heat-related deaths this summer, including one in Montgomery County. In 2009, there were six in Maryland and two in Virginia.
All six people who suffered heat-related deaths in Maryland and Virginia this summer were older than 65 and had health conditions that made them more vulnerable to extreme heat.
Staff Writer Emily Babay contributed to this report.
