Here’s some evidence to back up Richelieu’s insight that “John McCain could indeed win the nomination.” (We Americans occasionally try to provide evidence to support assertions, something foreign to the Gallic mind of Richelieu.) 1. Look at the new Fox national poll: McCain continues to trend up nationally (from 12 percent two months ago to 17 percent last month to 19 percent now), which jibes with his upward trend in Iowa and New Hampshire surveys. 2. But look especially at the candidates’ favorable/unfavorable numbers, which often are suggestive as to whether they do or don’t have a good chance to pick up more support in the future: Rudy’s favorable/unfavorable has declined, among all voters, from 55-33 in September to 47-40 today (62-25 among Republicans, 47-40 among independents). Like Rudy, Thompson is also trending down, from 31-24 in September to 30-32 today (45-17 among Republicans, 32-32 among independents). Romney is stable, moving from 24-32 in September to 30-36 today (46-23 among Republicans, 30-34 among independents). Huckabee (who wasn’t inlcuded in the poll in September) is at 30-28 (46-15 among Republicans, 30-29 among independents). McCain, who was at 49-30 in September, is at 53-29 today (69-19 among Republicans, 58-22 among independents). So: McCain is the only candidate (including the three leading Democrats) whose overall favorable/unfavorable has improved (a bit) in the last three months. And among both Republicans and independents (who can vote in some Republican primaries), he has the best favorable/unfavorable ratio. If he can snatch third (or second?) in Iowa, then win (or run a close second?) in New Hampshire – the underlying national numbers are good enough for McCain that he could win the nomination.
