House Republican leaders are increasingly confident they have rounded up enough votes to pass a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare, despite claims by their most conservative faction that there is enough opposition to block the measure.
“I believe if the vote was right now, we would have exactly the number of votes we need to pass,” Rep. Chris Collins, R-N.Y., a member of the House whip team tasked with rounding up support for GOP legislation, told the Washington Examiner.
Prospects for passage have brightened thanks in no small part to President Trump, who has held nonstop meetings with reluctant GOP lawmakers and visited House Republicans on their own turf Tuesday to rally them behind the bill.
House GOP leaders also won additional support after announcing changes to the bill late Monday, including extra money to help cover the cost of premiums for older people who do not yet qualify for Medicare.
“This is our chance and this is our moment,” House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said Tuesday. “It’s a big moment. And I think our members are beginning to appreciate just what kind of a rendezvous with destiny we have right here.”
The House, due to several vacancies, needs fewer than the typical 218 votes to pass legislation when all lawmakers are present in the chamber to vote. The number needed for passage will be 216 if all lawmakers show up to vote on Thursday, when the measure is scheduled for consideration.
The GOP can afford to lose 21 Republicans and still pass the bill. No Democrats are expected to vote in favor of it.
Republicans said the GOP picked up more “yes” votes Tuesday after Trump spoke privately with House Republicans at their weekly conference meeting in the Capitol basement.
Trump, who received several standing ovations during the Capitol Hill meeting, warned lawmakers if they failed to pass the measure, he believes they will lose their majority in the 2018 election. Chris Bond, spokesperson for House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., said Trump’s morning visit helped shore up more support.
“We are very happy with where we are, and with the progress we are making with members toward a good vote on passage this Thursday,” Bond told the Examiner.
Despite those projections, conservatives who oppose the bill insist that their whip count tells a different story. Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., who is head of the House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on Tuesday the Republican leadership still lacks the votes to pass the measure.
The Freedom Caucus includes more than three dozen members, and while the HFC is not formally taking a position on the bill, many of those who belong to the group are expected to vote no on the bill, he said.
“It really comes down to if anyone can credibly show me how this plan is going to lower health care premiums, in a significant way, then I’m willing to change my position,” Meadows said. “But being a business guy and running the numbers, this plan will not lower premiums in any significant way in the short run, or for my district, even in the long run.”
A Congressional Budget Office analysis found the bill would at first raise premiums and then lower them by about 10 percent over a decade.
Republican leaders say the CBO analysis paints an incomplete picture because the GOP plans additional health care legislation to lower costs.
But many Republicans appear unconvinced and some are hoping to amend the bill Wednesday when it churns thought the Rules Committee, which is the final stop before the legislation reaches the House floor.
Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, agreed with Meadows that the House proposal does not sufficiently lower premium costs. Davidson pointed to the “essential benefits” required by Obamacare, which the GOP plan leaves intact. He said that will help keep costs high.
Republican leaders and President Trump have promised the essential benefits provisions can be repealed later through the executive branch and cannot be included in the House bill because Senate rules would prohibit passage in that chamber.
“There are things to like in this bill,” Davidson said. “But when you say to people back home, I’m sorry your premiums are continuing to go up. It’s the Senate parliamentarian’s fault. I don’t see that as a persuasive argument.”
Davidson is considering offering an amendment at the Rules Committee on Wednesday that would ensure the repeal of Obamacare regulations.
But Collins said Republicans are not likely to allow big modifications to the bill and will instead leave any alterations to the Senate, which will take up the House bill next week if it passes on Thursday.
“At this late stage, I don’t believe you are going to see any changes,” Collins said.
