After neglecting the transportation needs of a growing population for decades, especially in the long-neglected South County area, Fairfax County officials are suddenly panicking about the ramifications of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission’s decision to relocate 22,000 military and civilian employees to Fort Belvoir over the next five years.
Preliminary Army estimates reveal that most of the employees already live within commuting distance, but they will nonetheless exert a great deal of additional pressure on the weakest part of the county’s clearly inadequate transportation system. That’s why Fairfax Supervisors Dana Kauffman, D-Lee, and Gerald Hyland, D-Mt. Vernon — who represent the two affected magisterial districts — are dreading the move.
The Army data also reveals that, while relocating workers will converge on Fort Belvoir from all points of the compass, two-thirds will be coming from either the south (41 percent) or north (28 percent), making it impossible for the vast majority of them to take Metro, just as it is for the 21,000 personnel currently employed on the base.
Last summer, the Coalition for Smarter Growth released a draft study by Smart Mobility, Inc. The study found that, given the limited roadway capacity near the fort even after widening Route 1, Telegraph and Pohick roads, “there will be 14,541 more vehicles leaving the Fort Belvoir area between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. than the roads can handle.” That’s the definition of gridlock.
Forget about extending Metro to handle the crush. In fact, only 17 percent of the eventual 44,000 daily commuters to Fort Belvoir will arrive via mass transit, carpooling, bicycling or walking. The rest will come in cars, primarily from the north, south and west — all areas that Metro does not serve.
Yet former Metro Chairman Kauffman and Hyland both unquestioningly voted for the $4 billionDulles Rail boondoggle, even though this one project will suck up all available transportation money in the county for the foreseeable future, including $100 million in operating subsidies from the county’s general fund each year. Yet none of their South County constituents will be able to use it, nor will Dulles Rail do anything to alleviate the coming congestion in their neighborhoods that will inevitably result from adding the equivalent of a small city to an already overburdened transportation infrastructure.
One possible solution to avert gridlock is to set up bus rapid transit service from the base to existing Metro and VRE stations, and possibly even running BRT southbound down the HOV lanes on Interstate 95. But that will be a hard sell for Kauffman and Hyland, who will have to explain to their constituents why BRT is good enough for them — but not the folks up north in Tysons Corner.
