Former President Donald Trump will be traveling between the courtroom and the campaign trail as he seeks a return to the White House in 2024, but that may only cause problems for President Joe Biden.
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Trump, who is currently the front-runner in the Republican presidential primary, testified at his New York fraud trial on Monday fresh off the release of a New York Times-Siena College poll that shows him leading Biden, who is expected to be the Democratic nominee in 2024. Trump’s legal troubles have not damaged his campaign so far, though, as is evident by the polling.
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The poll shows Trump leading Biden in five of six swing states just a year out from the presidential election. The survey, taken from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, shows Trump up 52% to 41% in Nevada, up 49% to 43% in Georgia, up 49% to 44% in Arizona, up 48% to 43% in Michigan, and up 48% to 44% in Pennsylvania. The poll showed Biden leading Trump 47% to 45% in Wisconsin.
Of the six states, Trump won all but one, Nevada, in 2016, but then went on to lose all six to Biden in the 2020 election. If the election were held today with those results in the six key swing states, with all other states remaining the same from 2020, Trump would beat Biden in the Electoral College 302-236.
The stark poll numbers come as Trump faces various legal cases in three states and Washington, D.C. The former president was federally indicted on charges related to alleged mishandling of classified documents and attempts to overturn the 2020 election in Florida and Washington, D.C., respectively. He also faces a case in New York City for alleged falsification of business documents, charges in Fulton County, Georgia, for racketeering, and a civil fraud trial in the Empire State.
While Trump has already been found liable by Judge Arthur Engoron in the fraud case and got testy with him while appearing on the witness stand on Monday, those antics and his overall legal woes do not appear to be hurting the former president with voters.
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A report from Politico last week said that a conservative group opposing Trump had attempted to cut ads emphasizing Trump’s legal problems, but when tested, they failed and helped Trump. The ads from Win It Back PAC remain unaired, with three of four boosting Trump’s support and the other one having “no measurable impact.”
Although the polling numbers appear favorable for Trump, if he is convicted and sent to jail in one of his trials, the tables appear to turn. The New York Times-Siena poll shows that if that happens, Biden leads Trump in all six swing states, with his widest lead being 50% to 36% in Wisconsin.
