UNSATISFYING ANSWERS: If there’s one word that captures the reaction to the mystery of the three UFOs shot down Friday, Saturday, and Sunday over the U.S. and Canada, it’s “frustration.”
Members of Congress are frustrated that the Biden administration is not providing more satisfying answers about three flying “objects” that, as of this morning, remain of unknown origin and purpose. After a classified briefing yesterday, senators complained they weren’t much smarter about what’s going on.
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“I came away from the classified briefing with more questions than answers. President Joe Biden’s lack of transparency is concerning and deeply disturbing,” tweeted Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT). “It is baffling and frustrating that these ‘objects’ had to be taken down with fighter jets and missiles, yet we still do not know anything about them and still don’t have them in our possession.”
“I was certainly frustrated not to get more information as to exactly what did the pilots see, what was their description, videos taken,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) on CNN. “Why don’t we have an opportunity to see some of those to judge for ourselves? And again, a better sense of what exactly we’re dealing with here? That information, I think, is very important, and people certainly have the right to know.”
SENATORS DEMAND TRANSPARENCY FROM BIDEN FOLLOWING CLASSIFIED UFO BRIEFING
‘WE’RE UP AGAINST IT’: The administration is equally frustrated that they don’t have better answers to give, and may not ever.
“We haven’t found the debris. We are still doing the best we can with the observations that were made by the pilots, with the flight profile data that we have,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby in a briefing for reporters yesterday. Asked if it were possible the wreckage might never be found, Kirby admitted, “We’re up against it when it comes to just the weather and the general geographic conditions.”
It’s now becoming obvious that downing balloons or other unknown flying objects over remote, rugged mountains, arctic sea ice, or deep cold water inland oceans is not conducive to recovering the wreckage for closer examination, especially in the winter.
“We’re dealing with some pretty tough conditions here,” Kirby said. “Lake Huron, which is not a shallow lake, and the Yukon wilderness, as well [as] sea ice north of the coast of north Alaska, and pretty tough weather conditions, let alone, just geographically, just a tough time of year.”
White House and Pentagon officials are now sheepishly admitting they may never find the downed “objects” and therefore may never be able to definitively answer the questions about them.
THE ‘BENIGN BALLOONS’ THEORY: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, but currently the U.S. has no indication the three rogue wind-tossed objects were connected to China, conducting surveillance, or anything other than garden-variety data collectors.
Based on visual descriptions from fighter pilots, It’s looking more and more likely the unidentified objects are the kind of aerial clutter documented in the Office of Director of National Intelligence January report on UAPs [Unidentified Aerial Phenomena]. The report cataloged 163 sightings of “balloon or balloon-like entities” along with 26 unmanned aircraft systems, or drones.
“Given what we’ve been able to ascertain thus far, the intelligence community is considering, as a leading explanation, that these could just be balloons tied to some commercial or benign purpose,” said Kirby, adding a caveat that the assessment could change if and when the debris is recovered.
“These are in all likelihood balloons, and balloons are not hard to put up there,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, on MSNBC. “Any nation state can and does put up weather balloons, any number of companies that are interested in providing Wi-Fi in rural areas are experimenting with balloons that carry Wi-Fi transceivers.”
WHITE HOUSE SAYS NO INDICATION THREE OBJECTS SHOT DOWN WERE CHINESE SURVEILLANCE
NEW SHOOTDOWN POLICY COMING: It’s also becoming more apparent that if you tweak air defense radars to the point where they pick up every small flying or floating object, you might need a protocol for dealing with them that does not involve firing a Raytheon air-to-air AIM-9X Sidewinder missile (MSRP: $380,000) as the weapon of choice to bring them down.
“We recalibrated our eyes and ears to look for something that we’ve never really looked for … And guess what? Now we’re seeing a lot of this stuff,” said Himes. “We probably eventually need a better policy than spending the millions of dollars involved in a kinetic attack on a balloon and then deploying special forces to try to find the remains.”
“I think that you are going to see us take a look at what the right parameters are for how to treat these going forward,” said Kirby on MSNBC. “How are we going to make the decision to engage or not to engage, what are the factors we’re going to consider, and if we do engage, how we engage. We’re willing to take a look and see if we need a different approach going forward.”
Kirby says an interagency working group is expected to draw up new rules of engagement by the end of the week.
WHITE HOUSE REBUFFS CALLS FOR BIDEN TO SPEAK PUBLICLY ABOUT DOWNED FLYING OBJECTS
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to hold a news conference at NATO Headquarters at 8 a.m. at the conclusion of today’s NATO defense ministerial meeting.
‘AS LONG AS IT TAKES’? OR ‘AS LONG AS WE CAN?’ In his news conference after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting yesterday, Austin reiterated for the umpteenth time the Biden administration talking point that the U.S. and its NATO partners will support Ukraine’s fight for freedom “united and resolute, for as long as it takes.”
So when he meets the press this morning, Austin is likely to get a question about comments from an unnamed senior administration official quoted in the Washington Post Monday as warning Ukraine’s leaders the arsenals of democracy are not unlimited, especially with some Republicans in Congress calling for an end to Ukraine aid.
“We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever,” the official reportedly said, adding that “it was the administration’s ‘very strong view’ that it will be hard to keep getting the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress.”
Austin said yesterday that the U.S. believes Ukraine has a limited “window of opportunity” to exercise initiative and “create the right conditions on the battlefield.”
“What Ukraine wants to do at the first possible moment is to establish or create momentum,” Austin said. “So we expect to see them conduct an offensive some time in the spring.”
NEVER BEEN A ‘BLANK CHECK’: While insisting the U.S. will “keep supporting Ukraine for as much and as long as we can,” NSC spokesman John Kirby said aid to Ukraine has always been contingent on “consultation and coordination” with Congress, and Ukraine is well aware that continued assistance depends on U.S. public opinion.
“They know that the American people are standing resolutely behind them and they know that it’s not cost free,” Kirby said. “We’re grateful for the continued assistance and support that we get in a bipartisan way from Congress,” he said. “There’s never been a blank check with respect to supporting Ukraine.”
MILLEY: UKRAINE IN A ‘GRINDING BATTLE OF ATTRITION’: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley painted an unflinching picture of the battles raging along the front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, describing the fighting in a Bakhmut area as “a very significant grinding battle of attrition with very high casualties, especially on the Russian side.”
“The front line is quite stable, even though very violent and a lot of fighting. It’s relatively stable,” Milley said, indicating Russia is not gaining much ground in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance. “The Ukrainians are holding. They’re fighting the defense. The Russians, primarily the Wagner Group, are attacking.”
“There’s no fancy arts of maneuver going on here. This is frontal attacks, wave attacks, lots of artillery with extremely high levels of casualties in that particular area.” The Russians are “struggling mightily,” Milley said, suffering from poor leadership and morale. “However, they do have numbers … and whether or not they’re successful in pressing the fight, that remains to be seen.”
CHAIRMAN OF JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF SAYS RUSSIA HAS ‘LOST’ WAR IN UKRAINE
DID I SAY BALLOONS? I MEANT ‘OBJECTS’: When answering a question about the last UFOs shot down on Sunday, Milley referred to it as a balloon, and seemed to refer to the other two as balloons as well.
Milley was explaining that the F-16 that shot the UFO down over Lake Huron missed with its first Sidewinder missile because of the small target signature, but hit the object with the second try. “First shot missed, second shot hit,” said Milley. “The missile landed harmlessly in the water of Lake Huron. We tracked it all the way down. And we made sure that the airspace was clear of any commercial, civilian, or recreational traffic.”
When a reporter pointed out that he referred to the target as a balloon, Milley corrected himself. “I’ll just use the word ‘object.’ That’s what everyone’s using. We’ll see. We haven’t recovered it yet, as you know.”
‘NOT SEEN AS A THREAT’: MILITARY INTERCEPTS ‘ROUTINE’ RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT, NORAD SAYS
IRAN’S MISSILE PROGRAM: A new Foundation for Defense of Democracies report out this morning, “Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” is the culmination of a three year effort by FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu to put together a comprehensive open-source accounting of what Iran has been up to.
The report documents at least 228 ballistic missile launches as part of flight tests, drills, and military operations since Iran agreed to the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal. “The greater Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, the more inclined the regime may be to use them,” said Taleblu.
“The Islamic Republic and its proxies rely on ballistic missiles to punish and deter action against their regional terror networks,” writes retired Vice Adm. James Syring, former director of the Missile Defense Agency. “Missiles support Iran’s effort to evict America from the Middle East and coerce U.S. partners into accommodating the Islamic Republic. The United States must therefore develop better missile defense capabilities and other tools to degrade Iranian missile power.”
US INTEL AGENCY CONFIRMS RUSSIAN USE OF IRANIAN WEAPONS IN UKRAINE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: White House says no indication three objects shot down were Chinese surveillance
Washington Examiner: Senators demand transparency from Biden following classified UFO briefing
Washington Examiner: White House rebuffs calls for Biden to speak publicly about downed flying objects
Washington Examiner: Mike Lee slams Biden over UFOs: ‘Concerning and deeply troubling’
Washington Examiner: Biden administration to brief former Trump adviser Bolton on Chinese spy balloon
Washington Examiner: Laser incident points to risk of clash between China and US treaty ally
Washington Examiner: US says it will defend Philippines against China’s latest attack
Washington Examiner: ‘Not seen as a threat’: Military intercepts ‘routine’ Russian aircraft, NORAD says
Washington Examiner: Support growing among Democrats for TikTok ban
Washington Examiner: Artificial intelligence flies fighter jet for 17 hours straight in aviation first
Washington Examiner: Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff says Russia has ‘lost’ war in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia sets up reeducation camps for taken Ukrainian children, chilling report says
Washington Examiner: Al Qaeda’s new ‘de facto’ leader Saif al Adel is under the protection of Iran, UN says
Washington Examiner: US intel agency confirms Russian use of Iranian weapons in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: US military missed first shot at object downed over Lake Huron
Washington Examiner: Kevin McCarthy blasts Biden’s decision-making skills: ‘Always too late’
Washington Post: Ukraine’s allies rush to send more equipment, risking logjams
New York Times: As Bakhmut Wavers, Allies Of Kyiv Discuss Plans For More Shells
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Eyes Seized Weapons For Kyiv
Bloomberg: Pentagon’s Classification Habit Is Faulted by Key Lawmaker
Washington Post: U.S. Tracked China Spy Balloon From Launch On Hainan Island Along Unusual Path
Bloomberg: US Salvages ‘Significant’ Amount of Alleged China Balloon Debris
19fortyfive.com: NATO Is Watching: America Must Have a Modernized Nuclear Weapons Arsenal
19fortyfive.com: Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
19fortyfive.com: Did Joe Biden Attack Nord Stream 2? This Story Has Some Big Problems
19fortyfive.com: The End of Arms Control?
19fortyfive.com: Are We Being Invaded by Aliens? Simple Answer: Hell, No.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: To Surge Weapons Production, Air Force May Accept Less Efficiency
Inside Defense: DOD Eyes High-Energy Laser Mass Production, Aims to Fortify Critical Patches of Industrial Base
Navy Times: Northrop Links Drones, Ships In Demonstration Of Connected Navy Fleet
USNI News: Marine Corps Requirements Call For 9 Light Amphibious Ships Per Regiment
Defense News: US Space Force Crafting New Schedule for GPS Ground System
Military.com: Defrauding Veterans Would Be a Federal Crime Under Bill Pushed by Senators
Marine Corps Times: Being A Marine Is Enough Of A Bonus, No. 2 Marine Corps General Says
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
8:30 a.m. NATO Headquarters, Brussels — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin holds a news conference after a NATO defense ministerial meeting https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
8 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “China-Russia Relations One Year into the Ukraine War,” with Li Mingjiang, associate professor at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; and Hoang Thi Ha, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; Paul Haenle, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/15/china-russia-relations
8:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit,” with Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Richard Johnson, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear/countering weapons of mass destruction policy; Drew Walter, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear matters; Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, Navy Strategic Submarines Program executive officer; and Brig. Gen. Ty Neuman, director of Air Force concepts and strategy https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2023
9 a.m. — Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion: “Challenging China’s Critical Mineral Dominance,” with Par Weihed, pro vice chancellor and professor of ore geology at Lulea University, Sweden; Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at PIIE; and Cecilia Malmstrom, nonresident senior fellow at PIIE https://www.piie.com/events/challenging-chinas-critical-mineral-dominance
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Global Security Challenges and Strategy,” with testimony from Bonny Lin, director, China Power Project and senior fellow for Asian security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Fiona Hill, senior fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe; and Roger Zakheim, director, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
1 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission release: “Report on the Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2023-2024,” with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK); James Ulvestad, acting director, National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Programs; David Balton, executive director, Office of Science and Technology Policy’s Arctic Executive Steering Committee; Derek Chollet, State Department counselor; and Larry Hinzman, assistant director of polar science at the Office of Science and Technology Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/release-us-arctic-research-commission
1:15 p.m. Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit discussion: “The Nuclear Posture Review,” with Drew Walter, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear matters; and Richard Johnson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program virtual conversation: “Europe Awakened: An Assessment After a Year of War,” with Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow, Transatlantic Security Program, Center for a New American Security; Max Bergmann, director, Europe Program and Stuart Center, CSIS; Kathleen McInnis, senior fellow, International Security Program, director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative, CSIS; and Donatienne Ruy, director, Executive Education and Abshire-Inamori Leadership Academy, fellow, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/europe-awakened-assessment-after-year-war
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry Stimson Center discussion: “Lessons from Ukraine for Maritime East Asia,” with Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; and Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center’s Japan Program https://www.stimson.org/event/lessons-from-ukraine-for-maritime-east-asia
3 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual event: “The Fate of the ‘Asian Peace,’” with Van Jackson, senior lecturer in international relations, Victoria University of Wellington; David Kang, director, USC Korean Studies Institute; and Frank Aum, moderator, senior expert, Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.usip.org/events/fate-asian-peace
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Va. — Potomac Officers Club annual Artificial Intelligence Summit, with Craig Martell, chief digital and artificial intelligence officer at the Defense Department; and Lakshmi Raman, director of artificial intelligence at the CIA https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-4th-annual-artificial-intelligence-summi
9:30 a.m. — Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty virtual discussion: “Clearing the Air: Russian Disinformation and the War in Ukraine,” with Ukrainian Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko; Olga Rudenko, chief editor of the Kyiv Independent; Peter Dickinson, chief editor of Business Ukraine magazine; and Natalie Sedletska, acting Kyiv bureau chief of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service https://zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth,” with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/china-and-ukraine-time-truth
12 p.m. 7805 Regents Dr., College Park, Md. — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies Global Forum: “Black Sea Security Conundrum: Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-global-forum
12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion: Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir, focusing on advancing democracy in the post-Soviet world and the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump, with author and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual Global Risk Conference: “Russia and the West: All Bridges Burned?” with Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; and Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies discussion: “The Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine: Identity, Politics, Governance,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/implications-russias-war-ukraine
4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Entering a New Era for US-Japan Defense Integration,” with James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
4:30 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The North Korean Threat and Allied Policy Options,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-north-korean-threat
4:30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Inside Look at Biden’s Ukraine Strategy,” with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/16/carnegie-connects
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17
TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org
2 p.m. Intelligence Squared virtual live debate recording: “Should The U.S. Ban TikTok?” with Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute, arguing “Yes”; and Milton Mueller, professor, Georgia Institute of Technology School of Public Policy, founder and director, Internet Governance Project, arguing “No.” Moderated by John Donvan https://www.workcast.com/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Russia … is waging a very costly war of attrition, while Ukraine is effectively leveraging their asymmetric advantages in order to defend itself. And the most important asymmetric advantage they have is courage, resilience and tactical skill.”
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, speaking at NATO Tuesday.
