Vladimir Putin played Obama and Bush. This is how he’ll try to play Trump.

Still, based on prior experience, it should be interesting. After all, Putin likes to use his first meetings with American presidents to seduce them into his web of lies.

In 2001, Putin impressed President George W. Bush by pretending he shared Bush’s Christian views and wanted to lead Russia into a union with Western modernity. Bush fell for it, saying, “I looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his soul.”

At their first meeting in 2009, Putin stroked Obama’s ego by adopting his “hope and change” motto. As Putin put it, “We link hopes for development of our relationship with your name.” Again, it worked. A senior U.S. official stated that Obama left the meeting “very convinced [Putin} is a man of today and he’s got his eyes firmly on the future.”

Putin then spent the next eight years playing Obama. History thus offers a warning to Trump.

But what should he expect Putin to do?

Well, first, he should prepare for Putin to play to his insecurities. Putin will likely tell Trump that he has always believed the American press to be “unfair.” Indeed, Putin has already laid the groundwork for this statement. In his interview with Megyn Kelly, last month, Putin attacked the U.S. media, saying “You create a sensation out of nothing. And out of the sensation, you turn it into a weapon of war against the current president … you people are so creative over there. Your lives must be so boring.”

Next, Putin will probably imply that the media hate Trump because he denied Clinton the White House. Again, the focus here will be reassuring Trump that his “fake news” vendetta is justified.

Believing he has sucked Trump into his corner, Putin will then broach policy issues.

Syria is likely to be first up. The Russians want Trump to accept Assad as Syria’s leader. In return, they claim, Russia will cooperate in the fight against ISIS. But it’s a lie. The Russians have little interest in destroying ISIS and even less capability to assist the coalition (without annihilating city blocks in the process). Still, Putin is concerned with the increasing consolidation of U.S. power in northern and eastern Syria. Establishing U.S. Military garrisons in both areas, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has prevented Assad from claiming more territory. Expect Putin to tell Trump that those bases make peace harder rather than easier.

Still, Putin is not an idiot. He knows that Trump is under domestic pressure for his Russia policy. Correspondingly, Putin is likely to give Trump what, in spy-speak, is called “a dangle.” A dangle is the offer of a fake victory designed to achieve a hidden effect. But the key point here is that Putin wants to give Trump a win that he can sell back home in the U.S., but not enough of a win that it actually negatively affects Russian interests. For one example, Putin might offer a new peace summit or ceasefire on Ukraine or Syria. Or he might strongly condemn North Korea’s ballistic missile program. Or he might commit to new assistance against ISIS.

Regardless, Putin’s offerings won’t lead to anything substantial. They’ll be just enough for Trump to claim one success from the meeting.

Whatever he does, however, we can predict the basic outline of Putin’s strategy. After all, it employs three sustaining prongs: Manipulate, disorient, and if necessary, out-escalate.

Of course, it’s also worth watching what Trump says and does in his meeting. Because if Trump praises Putin or fails to challenge him on issues like Syria or Ukraine, he will discredit himself. This obviously matters in a domestic sense, but the true concern here is how U.S. allies would view pro-Putin messaging from Trump. It would fundamentally destabilize allied confidence in Trump’s commitment to NATO and U.S. leadership more generally. President Barack Obama never seemed to realize that perceptions of a leader’s strength matter greatly. Trump must not make the same mistake.

Ultimately, Trump must be cautious. Putin may offer pleasant words, but the rubble of Aleppo, the bodies of London and Moscow, and the wreckage of MH-17 render a different truth. Putin is a leader who revels in deception and relies upon human devastation. He does not want to be America’s friend.