THE GREAT TANK DEBATE: To hear German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tell it, all the United States need do is relinquish some of its older M1A1 Abrams tanks and the floodgates will open with German-made Leopard 2 tanks from various European countries pouring into Ukraine. The U.S. insists it’s not that simple.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Berlin today meeting with brand-new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who until this week was the interior minister of Lower Saxony. Pistorius, a neophyte with no national security experience, was thrust into the job this week after the sudden resignation of Christine Lambrecht.
“U.S. officials have said … Austin will be pushing Germany to at least allow for the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine given an expected Russian spring offensive and no signs that the U.S. will be sending their own tanks,” tweeted Reuters Pentagon correspondent Idrees Ali, one of the reporters traveling with Austin.
At Scholz’s Davos speech yesterday and again at this morning’s joint media appearance with Austin and Pistorious, no mention was made of the tank dispute.
“Germany remains one of our most important allies,” Austin said in a brief statement. “Tomorrow at Ramstein, we’ll join our allies and partners at the year’s first meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group, and we’ll renew our united commitment to support Ukraine’s self-defense for the long haul. So, at our meeting today, we will discuss some of the issues that we’ll tackle tomorrow at the contact group with our friends.”
LLOYD AUSTIN HEADS TO GERMANY FOR EIGHTH MEETING OF DEFENSE LEADERS ON UKRAINE
ZELENSKY FRUSTRATED: In a video address to the World Economic Forum at Davos yesterday and again this morning in remarks via video to a breakfast session, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed deep frustration at the deadlock preventing the tanks he said he so desperately needs as Russia prepares for a major springtime offensive.
“Mobilization of the world must outpace the next military mobilization of our joint enemy,” Zelensky said yesterday. “The supplying of Ukraine with air defense systems must outpace Russia’s next missile attacks. The supplies of Western tanks must outpace another invasion of Russian tanks.”
This morning, Zelensky again bemoaned what he called a “lack of specific weaponry” in a breakfast session attended by Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
“We cannot just do it with motivation and morale,” Zelensky said. “There are times where we shouldn’t hesitate or we shouldn’t compare when someone says, ‘I will give tanks if someone else will also share his tanks.’”
THE PROBLEM WITH ABRAMS: There are a number of reasons the U.S. is reluctant to send its premier main battle tank to Ukraine, but the biggest is simply that the M1 Abrams requires very high maintenance.
For one thing, the Abrams has a gas-turbine engine that runs on jet fuel, instead of diesel, like the Leopard and most other armored vehicles in Ukraine, and it’s a gas-guzzler, using 3 gallons a mile, not 3 miles a gallon. In combat, it needs its own logistics supply train, as retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling explained in a Twitter thread in April.
“You not only have to provide tanks, but tanks take a lot of training, a lot of maintenance, a lot of repairs, a lot of spare parts, because they’re in direct fire mode with the enemy,” said Hertling, a former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, on CNN yesterday. “That’s really hard to do in combat, to get all that training and that maintenance support and the supply lines established while you’re conducting combat operations.”
“A lot of people think the West is slow-rolling this. I don’t believe that at all,” he added. “I think the West, especially under the guidance of the secretary, Austin, and the Ramstein conference, is trying to push as much as they can into the hands of the Ukrainians.”
“A component of being able to conduct effective combined arms maneuver on open ground, like we’re talking about in the Donbas, is mechanized maneuver, mechanized defense and offense, as well as mechanized transport,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby in a conference call with reporters yesterday. “Modern tanks are part of mechanized maneuver operations, a big part of it, and that is no doubt why President Zelensky continues to seek the addition of tanks into his arsenal.”
But Kirby also argued that the best tanks for Ukraine now are the ones that require the least amount of training and support. “Each tank is different in that regard. Some will require more training than others, which, again, has to be factored into the absorption rate that they can get into the Ukrainian military.”
RUSSIA PREPARING MAJOR NEW OFFENSIVE IN COMING MONTHS: REPORT
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
ANOTHER $2.5+ BILLION: At tomorrow’s Ramstein conference, the U.S. is set to announce its next tranche of military support for Ukraine, reportedly totaling a whopping $2.6 billion.
The package reportedly will include nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles, the first time the wheeled armored vehicles made by General Dynamics Land System have been sent to Ukraine, along with at least 50 more Bradley Fighting Vehicles made by BAE Systems, according to the Associated Press.
The U.S. will also be sending ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles, according to a report in Politico.
Not included will be the long-range ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile System, that has the range to target far behind the Russian front lines.
“Our judgment to date has been that the juice isn’t really working the squeeze on the ATACMS,” Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy, told reporters in an off-camera session yesterday. “You never know, that judgment at some point could change, but we’re not there yet on the ATACMS.”
RUSSIA HAS ‘NO CHANCE’ TO ‘ACHIEVE THEIR STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES,’ DOD OFFICIAL SAYS
DUELING NARRATIVES: While Kahl, who is just back from a weekend visit to Kyiv, was busy telling reporters at the Pentagon that Russia has zero chance of achieving its strategic objectives in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin was spinning a different narrative.
In remarks in St. Petersburg commemorating the 80th anniversary of the lifting of the Nazi siege of Leningrad, Putin said Russia had no choice but to invade Ukraine, which he called Russia’s “historical territories,” and predicted that victory for Russian forces was “inevitable.”
Meanwhile, at a news conference in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the U.S. and its allies of waging a “proxy war” aimed at destroying Russia, comparing the defense of Ukraine to the Holocaust, and said there was no room for negotiation.
“Negotiations with Zelensky are out of the question because he adopted a law that banned talks with the Russian government,” Lavrov said. “The Western claptrap, to the effect that they are ready to talk but we are not, is nothing but prevarications.”
“The United States has created a coalition of nearly all European member states of NATO and the EU and is using Ukraine to wage a proxy war against Russia with the old aim of finally solving the ‘Russian question,’ like Hitler, who sought a final solution to the ‘Jewish question.’”
That drew a sharp rebuke from Kirby on a White House conference call. “How dare he compare anything to the Holocaust, anything, let alone a war that they started?” Kirby said. “The West lining up and threatening Russia’s right to exist? It’s almost so absurd that it’s not worth responding to.”
“Ukraine posed no threat to Russia, none whatsoever. They didn’t — Ukraine posed no threat militarily to anybody, and Mr. Putin whipped up this false narrative of an existential threat to his country and started throwing around ridiculous words about neo-Nazism, Nazis in Ukraine, and then launched this unprovoked invasion almost a year ago today.”
PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA’S VICTORY IN UKRAINE IS GUARANTEED
INDUSTRY WATCH: CHECK THIS OUT! NASA has selected Boeing as the lead developer of a revolutionary new aircraft that does not have traditional moving surfaces to control the aircraft in flight, called the TTBW, for Transonic Truss-Braced Wing.
Boeing tweeted an artist’s conception of the futuristic high-wing aircraft that uses bursts of highly pressurized air to maneuver the aircraft.
“The [Sustainable Flight Demonstrator] program has the potential to make a major contribution toward a sustainable future,” said Greg Hyslop, Boeing chief engineer and executive vice president of Engineering, Test & Technology, in a press release.
“Ultrathin wings braced by struts with larger spans and higher-aspect ratios could eventually accommodate advanced propulsion systems that are limited by a lack of underwing space in today’s low-wing airplane configurations,” the company said. “For the demonstrator vehicle, Boeing will use elements from existing vehicles and integrate them with all-new components.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin heads to Germany for eighth meeting of defense leaders on Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Putin says Russia’s victory in Ukraine is guaranteed
Washington Examiner: Russia has ‘no chance’ to ‘achieve their strategic objectives,’ DOD official says
Washington Examiner: Russia preparing major new offensive in coming months: Report
Washington Examiner: Opinion: The Biden classified documents fiasco: Questions that need answers
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Viktor Orban’s Hungary stands with China and Russia, not the US
Breaking Defense: Russia ‘Not Done’: McConville Warns West to Invest in Defense for Long Term, Diversify Supply
New York Times: U.S. Eases Stance On Helping Kyiv To Target Crimea
19fortyfive.com: Putin Has Big Plans to Turn Around His Ukraine War Disaster
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Must Be Allowed to Hit Inside Russia to Stop a Possible New Offensive
Washington Times: Navy Intel Chief: China Building For War ‘In Every Area’
Bloomberg: US Navy’s Newest Submarine Leaves Pentagon Baffled on When It Will Be Ready
Defense News: UAE Joins South Korea’s Military Transport Aircraft Program
The Drive: Inside How The Marine’s Island-Hopping F-35B Playbook Is Being Written
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Launches 6th New GPS III Satellite into Orbit
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Spangdahlem F-16s Deploy to Kadena; Permanent Replacement for F-15s Will Be ‘Superior’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown, Bass Visit CENTCOM and Pledge ‘Continued Commitment‘ to Middle East
19fortyfive.com: Australia Wants Nuclear Attack Submarines (It May Never Happen)
Military.com: Senator, Navy Secretary Say Sailors Need More Mental Health Help
The War Zone: DARPA’s New X-Plane Aims to Maneuver with Nothing but Bursts of Air
Forbes: Opinion: How The Defense Industry Became A Defining Feature Of The U.S. Economy
Calendar
THURSDAY | JANUARY 19
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report: “North Korea Policy and Extended Deterrence,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Forces Korea commander, chairman of the Korea Defense Veterans Association, and member of the CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula https://www.csis.org/events/csis-commission-report-north-korea
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Sanctions and the Russian Economy,” with Sergey Aleksashenko, member of the board of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom and the board of the Free Russia Foundation https://www.csis.org/events/sanctions-and-russian-economy
10:30 a.m. 2121 K St. NW — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: “The Recalibration of Saudi Foreign Policy,” with Neda Bolourchi, associate director of Rutgers University’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies, and Emile Hokayem, IISS director of regional security and senior fellow for Middle East security https://www.iiss.org/events/2023/01/the-recalibration-of-saudi-foreign-policy
11:30 a.m — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on a new report: “Chinese Lessons From the Pacific War: Implications for PLA Warfighting” https://csbaonline.org/about/events/report-release-webinar
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Strategic threats in Latin America and the Caribbean,” with Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander of U.S. Southern Command https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-general-laura-j-richardson
1 p.m. — Washington Post live discussion with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) about how she wants her party to govern, with the Washington Post’s Leigh Ann Caldwell https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
FRIDAY | JANUARY 20
4 a.m. Ramstein Air Base, Germany — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin makes opening remarks at the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
10:30 a.m. Ramstein Air Base — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley joint press briefing after Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the University of California at San Diego’s 21st Century China Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-overreach
MONDAY | JANUARY 23
1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “A Conversation with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness,” with Hal Brands, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-john-cornyn
TUESDAY | JANUARY 24
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies invites you to join our Aerospace Nation event: “The importance of the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise to the nation’s security,” with Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, and Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton, commander, 20th Air Force, Air Force Global Strike Command https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Minister Pistorius, thanks for hosting me today. I know that I’m your first visitor since you’ve taken office, but since you’ve only been in office for an hour, that’s not surprising.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meeting in Berlin with new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, just sworn in this morning
