‘THEY HAVE A GREAT PLAN’: Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been notably pessimistic about the prospects for a rout of Russian troops when Ukraine launches its expected counteroffensive in the coming weeks or months, arguing it’s highly unlikely that Ukraine will be able to expel Russia from Ukrainian territory or retake Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
And now, thanks to the leak of pages of highly-classified Pentagon documents, we know why. The briefing slides from late February and early March detail gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses, a critical shortage of missiles and artillery shells, force generation problems, and the Pentagon’s overall assessment that the offensive will likely result in only “modest territorial gains.”
In a joint appearance at the State Department, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in the wake of the embarrassing document leak, both had talked directly with their Ukrainian counterparts. “We are determined to assist Ukraine in the efforts that it’s making to regain the territory that has been seized from it. And I reaffirmed that commitment today,” said Blinken.
“They have a great plan to start,” said Austin, adding he expects Ukraine to adapt as fighting progresses. “I have every confidence that they will do what good leaders, great leaders do, they will fight the enemy and not be driven by a specific plan.”
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE PENTAGON LEAKS AND WHAT WE DON’T
‘THEY HAVE MUCH OF THE CAPABILITY THEY NEED’: The photographs of leaked documents are mostly from Feb. 28 and March 1, and Austin said there has been progress addressing the gaps in Ukraine’s capabilities since then. Following his discussion with Ukraine’s defense minister, Austin said Oleksii Reznikov expressed confidence.
“I think he feels that they’re in a pretty good position,” said Austin. “They have much of the capability that they need to continue to be successful. We’ve trained an enormous number of troops. We have provided a substantial number of platforms.”
“The sustainment will be there throughout,” added Austin, noting the next meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group is set for late next week, during which more than 50 countries will discuss additional support and supplies for Ukraine.
ESPER PREDICTS CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS LEAK ‘COULD RIPPLE FOR SOME TIME‘
AUSTIN: ‘WE WILL TURN OVER EVERY ROCK’: Meanwhile, the Pentagon and the Justice Department are conducting a no-holds-barred investigation to try to find the source of the leak.
“Where exactly and who had access … we don’t know. We simply don’t know at this point,” said Austin. “I will tell you that we take this very seriously, and we will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it.”
Three people who work for a U.S. government agency in northern Virginia have been given polygraph exams in connection with the probe, according to a report in Soldier of Fortune magazine, which described the people as “civilians who do not work for the Department of Defense.”
Blinken said in his conversations with U.S. allies that he has stressed how seriously the breach is being taken. “We have engaged with allies and partners at high levels over the past days, including to reassure them about our own commitment to safeguarding intelligence and, of course, our commitment to our security partnerships.”
UK DEFENSE MINISTRY WARNS MAJOR US LEAK HAS INACCURACIES, COULD CONTAIN DISINFORMATION
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting up with President Joe Biden in Ireland and the U.K. before continuing on to Vietnam and Japan.
In Vietnam, Blinken will take part in a groundbreaking ceremony for the new U.S. Embassy in Hanoi. “It is amazing to think that less than 30 years after normalizing relations and moving into our first embassy in Hanoi in 1995, we will now be putting shovels into the ground to begin building a stunning new symbol of the U.S. commitment to our enduring partnership and friendship with Vietnam,” said Daniel Kritenbrink, a former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, at a briefing Monday.
“Vietnam has become a key link in the global supply chain,” said Kritenbrink. “In just a few short years, we’ve also become one of Vietnam’s key trading partners. In fact, the U.S. is now Vietnam’s number-one export market, and Vietnam is our eighth largest trading partner in goods.”
From Vietnam, Blinken will travel to Japan for the meeting of foreign ministers from the G7. “The Secretary will discuss with his counterparts charting a path forward on a number of these issues, including Russia’s continued war against Ukraine, nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation, food and energy security, and advancing an affirmative vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific,” said State Department spokesman Vedant Patel.
WHAT’S GOING ON AT WALTER REED? It’s been more than a week since Walter Reed National Military Medical Center unceremoniously ended its relationship with a community of Franciscan Catholic priests who have provided pastoral care to service members and veterans at the hospital for two decades, by issuing a “cease and desist order” and awarding a new contract for services to a for-profit secular defense contracting firm.
The move has sparked outrage and charges of a violation of First Amendment guarantees of freedom of religion, especially among lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
“Depriving service members and veterans, who are receiving care, of the ability to enter into the Paschal Mystery with priests is utterly unconscionable,” said 11 Republican members of Congress in a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
“We understand that the new contract was awarded to a for-profit secular defense contracting firm that is unable to fill the needs assigned,” the lawmakers said. “Specifically, the firm has no way of providing Catholic priests to Walter Reed, which would deny service members and veterans the rights and abilities to practice their religion and participate in certain practices such as pastoral care and the sacraments which can only be carried out by an ordained Catholic priest, including celebrating Holy Mass and hearing confession.”
Adding insult to injury, the hospital cut ties with the priests just before Holy Week, the most sacred week in Christianity ahead of the Easter holiday.
“We have made promises to our service members and veterans that if they take care of us, we will take care of them. This extends to not just providing quality healthcare at our nation’s military medical facilities, but by also providing the ability to freely practice their religion to those under the care at these facilities,” the letter continued. “It is a tenet ingrained in the very fabric of who we are as a country, and the DOD’s actions to deny Catholic Pastoral Care from service members and veterans at Walter Reed goes against the morals, way of life, and rights that make up the fabric of our great nation.”
The letter was signed by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Roger Marshall (R-KS), James Lankford (R-OK), and Jerry Moran (R-KS), along with Reps. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Michael Waltz (R-FL), Cory Mills (R-FL), Mike Gallagher (R-WI), Jim Banks (R-IN), Carlos Giménez (R-FL), and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA).
RUBIO DEMANDS ANSWERS AFTER WALTER REED TERMINATES CONTRACT WITH CATHOLIC PRIESTS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pentagon will ‘turn over every rock’ in leak investigation, Austin says
Washington Examiner: Esper predicts classified documents leak ‘could ripple for some time’
Washington Examiner: UK Defense Ministry warns major US leak has inaccuracies, could contain disinformation
Washington Examiner: What we know about the Pentagon leaks and what we don’t
Washington Examiner: China’s currency could create ‘risk’ for financial system, IMF says
Washington Examiner: Trump hints at who he thinks was behind Nord Stream pipeline explosion: ‘It wasn’t Russia’
Washington Examiner: Defiant Trump says he ‘did nothing wrong’ and will ‘never’ drop out of 2024 race after indictment
Washington Examiner: Inside the terrorist threat concerns over Biden’s Northern Ireland visit
Washington Examiner: Germany to phase out last three nuclear reactors for good
Washington Examiner: Rubio demands answers after Walter Reed terminates contract with Catholic priests
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Veterans dispute Biden’s Afghanistan whitewash
Soldier of Fortune: FBI Polygraphs Three People in Connection With Pentagon Documents Leak, Sources Say
New York Times: An Online Meme Group Is at the Center of Uproar Over Leaked Military Secrets
CNN: South Korea Claims ‘Considerable Amount’ Of Information In Leaked Pentagon Documents Is Fabricated
Reuters: Leaked U.S. intel document claims Serbia agreed to arm Ukraine
Reuters: North Korea Parade ‘Probably Oversells’ ICBM Threat -Leaked Document
Washington Post: Russia moves to tighten conscription law, pressing more men to fight
Washington Post: Ukraine Beefs Up Ranks As Spring Offensive Nears
New York Times: Despite Bombings and Bitter Cold, Ukraine Is Up and Running
Defense News: From Ukraine to Debt Ceiling, It’s a Balancing Act to Pass FY24 Budget
AP: NATO Member Romania Pushes to Buy US-Made F-35 Fighter Jets
New York Times: From Red Carpet to Doghouse: Macron Returns From China to Allied Dismay
AP: China Says Taiwan Encirclement Drills A ‘Serious Warning’
Stars and Stripes: Chinese Forces Remain Active Around Taiwan Past Expected End To Military Exercise
CNN: Military Exercises Suggest China Is Getting ‘Ready To Launch A War Against Taiwan,’ Island’s Foreign Minister Tells CNN
USNI News: U.S., Philippines Kick Off Largest-Ever Balikatan Exercise As Defense, Foreign Affairs Leaders Meet In Washington
Breaking Defense: US Tech Firms Should Wargame Response If China Invades Taiwan, Warns NSA Cybersecurity Chief
Business Insider: The Newest U.S. Aircraft Carrier Is Heading For Deployment After A Decade Of Hard Lessons The Navy Says It Should ‘Never’ Do Again
Military Times: Troops Overseas To Get Stability In Their Cost Of Living Allowance
19fortyfive.com: NATO Is Becoming the F-35 Alliance
19fortyfive.com: Could the Next 9/11 Originate in Turkey?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Massive German-Hosted Air Exercise Will Feature 220 Aircraft, Simulated Combat
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Satellite Control Network Is In Urgent Need of Upgrades, Watchdog Says
Defense News: US Has Planes, Boats on Call for Emergencies, Why Not Satellites?
19fortyfive.com: X-37B: The U.S. Military’s Secret Weapon or Just a Research Space Plane?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-1 and B-2 Bomber Spending to Dwindle as Focus Shifts to B-21, B-52
The War Zone: Retirement Of MC-130H Speeds Up MC-130J Low-Flying Radar Upgrade
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 12
8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Cyber Media Forum breakfast-discussion: with Nathaniel Fick, ambassador at large, State Department Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy. RSVP: https://docs.google.com/forms
10 a.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C. virtual discussion: “NATO’s Enlargement: Assessing the Cases of Finland, Sweden and Ukraine,” with former Ambassador to Turkey and Iraq James Jeffrey, chairman of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center; Burhanettin Duran, general coordinator at the SETA Foundation; Kilic Kanat, research director, SETA Foundation; and Kadir Ustun, executive director, SETA Foundation https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual 2023 Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture with former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/event
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Investigating alleged Russian war crimes,” with Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW -— Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies event: “Ukraine’s Cultural Response to War,” with Ian Grant, creator and host of PBS’s Culture Quest https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ukraines-cultural-response
1 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Interim report launch,” with former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; and former Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/commission-on-defense-innovation
4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Asia Program Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture on “U.S.-East Asia Relations,” focusing on current challenges for Taiwan and U.S.-Taiwan relations, with Jacques deLisle, director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for the Study of Contemporary China https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
THURSDAY | APRIL 13
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Transactional or Strategic? The Future of Russo-Iranian Relations,” with Abdullah Baabood, visiting professor at Waseda University; Anna Borshchevskaya, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Mahmood Sariolghalam, nonresident scholar at MEI; and Alex Vatanka, director of the MEI’s Iran Program https://mei.edu/events/transactional-or-strategic-future-russo-iranian-relations
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The role of digital economy in Ukraine’s reconstruction,” with Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation Alex Bornyakov; and Denelle Dixon, CEO of the Stellar Development Foundation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-role-of-digital-economy
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Enabling the Mission of the New Triad: A Dispatch from Global Force 2023,” with Col. Pete Atkinson, chief of operations at the U.S. Army Space Division https://events.govexec.com/enabling-the-mission-of-the-new-triad/
1:30 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual discussion: ”FY 2024 DoD Science and Technology Budget Priorities,” with Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Research and Technology William “Willie” Nelson; Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Lorin Selby; and Stefanie Tompkins, director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency https://www.ndia.org/events/2023/4/13/fy24-dod-s-and-t-budget-priorities
5 p.m. 1761 Business Center Dr., Reston, Va. — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The Myths and Realities of the 1968 Tet Offensive,” with James Robbins, senior fellow in national security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-myths-and-realities-of-the-1968-tet-offensive/
FRIDAY | APRIL 14
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of Western Aid to Ukraine,” with Acting Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Dereck Hogan https://www.csis.org/events/future-western-aid-ukraine-conversation
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle for Democracy,” with Anne Applebaum, staff writer for the Atlantic; and Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/04/14/carnegie-connects
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Constraining Russia’s War Economy: Lessons from Lithuania,” with Lithuanian Minister of Finance Gintare Skaiste https://www.hudson.org/events/constraining-russias-war-economy
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Sanctions and Russia’s Defense Industry,” with Samuel Bendett, adviser on Russia studies at the Center for Naval Analyses; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; Paul Schwartz, nonresident senior associate at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/sanctions-and-russias-defense-industry
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The US-South Korea alliance at 70,” with U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg; followed by a panel discussion with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Multilateral Affairs Jung Pak https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-us-rok-alliance-at-70
MONDAY | APRIL 17
1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The US Congress and national security,” with Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-congress-national-security
TUESDAY | APRIL 18
TBA 2247 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability Select Coronavirus Pandemic Subcommittee hearing: “Investigating the Origins of COVID-19, Part 2: China and the Available Intelligence,” with testimony from John Ratcliffe, former director of national intelligence; and David Feith, former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs http://oversight.house.gov
THURSDAY | APRIL 20
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion of recent paper: “Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East,” with author, retired Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander, U.S. Central Command; Valerie Lincy, executive director, Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control; and Damien Spleeters, deputy director of operations at Conflict Armament Research
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We take this very seriously, and we will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the leak of highly classified briefing slides that reveal the state of Ukraine’s military forces and the extent of the U.S.’s spying on friends and foes.
