At meeting of allies, Austin says Ukraine faces ‘challenging road’ as Russia prepares for spring offensive

U.S. officials told reporters traveling with Austin that the focus of today’s meeting will be filling the immediate need for armor, artillery and air defenses to outmaneuver Russian ground forces, which outnumber the Ukrainians.

“Looking around this room today, I know that our unity will only grow. We all understand the stakes in Russia’s war of choice. This isn’t just about Ukraine’s right to live in peace and security, it’s also about the kind of world that our children will inherit,” said Austin. “None of us want to live in a world where autocrats can assault their peaceful neighbors, trample their borders, and bombard their people.”

US ISSUES DIRE WARNING FOR CITIZENS TO LEAVE RUSSIA ‘IMMEDIATELY’ AND STAY AWAY

STOLTENBERG: ‘WE ARE IN A RACE OF LOGISTICS’: Speaking to reporters ahead of today’s separate meetings of the contact group and defense ministers at NATO Headquarters, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the arsenals of democracies are being strained by the prodigious rate that ammunition is being expended by Ukrainian forces.

“The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production,” Stoltenberg said. “For example, the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months. Orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later.”

NATO has just completed what Stoltenberg called “an extraordinary survey of our munitions stockpiles,” and is urging all member nations to ramp up production.

“The good news is that several allies, including the United States and France, have already signed new multi-year contracts with the defense industry, enabling them to invest in increased production capacity,” Stoltenberg said. “I’m confident that we are now on track, on a path that will enable us both to continue to support Ukraine, but also to replenish our own stocks. And it just shows the importance of increased defense spending, because all of this, of course, requires more defense expenditure by NATO allies.”

‘WE’RE SEEING THE START ALREADY’: There’s a lot of debate among observers as to whether the expected Russian offensive is actually underway, beginning with small-scale operations and continued shoring up of defenses.

The latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry indicates that if the offensive has begun, it’s mostly sputtering, with “small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut,” and little progress in efforts to advance to the south.

“Russia likely aims to reverse some of the gains Ukrainian forces made over September-November 2022: there is a realistic possibility that their immediate goal is to advance west to the Zherebets River,” the U.K. MOD said in a tweet. “Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.”

“I think the reality is that we’re seeing the start already … we’re seeing what Russia [does] now is sending thousands and thousands of more troops, accepting a very high rate of casualty, taking big losses, but putting pressure on the Ukrainians,” said Stoltenberg yesterday.

“What Russia lacks in quality, they try to compensate in quantity, meaning that the leadership, the logistics, the equipment, the training don’t have the same level as the Ukrainian forces, but they have more forces,” he said. “The Russians are willing to send those forces and take a high number of casualties. So for me, this just highlights the importance of timing. It’s urgent to provide Ukraine with more weapons. The faster we can deliver weapons, ammunition, spare parts, fuel to the Ukrainian front, the more lives we save.”

RUSSIA SUFFERS ANOTHER LOSS IN UKRAINE

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will have more to say later this morning when they brief reporters from NATO Headquarters at 11:45 a.m. following this morning’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

Austin is attending the NATO defense ministerial today before visiting Estonia and then traveling to Germany to observe U.S. training of Ukrainian troops, before returning the United States Thursday.

AUSTIN: 3 UFOS STILL UNIDENTIFIED: Upon his arrival in Belgium yesterday, Austin said none of the three unidentified floating objects shot down over the U.S. and Canada have been recovered and identified, and consequently, the U.S. is not blaming China or anyone else at this point for the incursion of the small, unpropelled objects.

“Right now, our priority is debris recovery so that we can get a better sense of what these objects are,” said Austin on the tarmac in Brussels. “We, of course, know that a range of entities, including countries, companies, research organizations operate at these altitudes for purposes that are not nefarious, including legitimate research.”

“That said, because we’ve not been able to definitively assess what these recent objects are, we’ve acted out [of] an abundance of caution to protect our security and interests,” added Austin.

TIMELINE OF THE THREE UNIDENTIFIED OBJECTS SHOT DOWN IN US AND CANADIAN AIRSPACE

SEEK AND YE SHALL FIND: The Biden administration continues to draw a sharp distinction between the Chinese spy balloon, which the Pentagon tracked as it left China and transited the United States, and the three much smaller unknown objects that were shot down Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

“One of the reasons that we think we’re seeing more is because we’re looking for more,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby at a White House briefing. “They have modified the filters and the gains, as we call it, of the radar capabilities to look more discreetly at high-altitude, small-radar cross-section and low-speed objects … and if you set the parameters in such a way to look for a certain something, it’s more likely that you’re going to find a certain something.”

Kirby highlighted the difficulty of recovering the wreckage of the small airborne objects, which are hard to find in the remote snow-covered north regions where they were shot down, or deep underwater in the Canadian side of Lake Huron in the case of the third object.

Rough seas are slowing the recovery of the Chinese balloon off the South Carolina coast, but overall, the salvage operation is progressing smoothly, with Kirby confirming that over the weekend divers were able to bring up some debris, including some of the electronics from 45 feet of water.

WHITE HOUSE SAYS FLYING OBJECTS PRESENT ‘REAL POTENTIAL RISK TO CIVILIAN AIR TRAFFIC’

TURNER: ‘WE’RE NOT HEARING ANYTHING’: Frustration continues to grow among key lawmakers on Capitol Hill who feel they are being kept in the dark despite the administration’s public and private briefings.

“It is absolutely frustrating,” said Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, on Fox News. “We’re the committee that is supposed to be receiving the intelligence that’s being generated, the notifications from the administration to Congress that are official about these types of threats.”

“We’re not hearing anything, which just shows you that the administration really doesn’t have any idea what they’re doing here,” Turner said, accusing the Biden administration of “being reactive” and “trigger-happy.”

“They’re reacting to the criticism that they have received. They don’t have a policy,” Turner told Fox News’s Neil Cavuto. “But, quite frankly, I’d rather them be trigger-happy than the permissive environment that they allowed when the Chinese balloon completed its mission across the United States.”

The White House insists it is making all the information it has available, and another classified briefing is set for this morning. The problem is, without recovering the debris from the three UFOs, they have no idea what they were doing, or who sent them.

CALLS GROW FOR BIDEN TO ADDRESS PUBLIC ABOUT OBJECTS SHOT FROM SKY

KIRBY: ‘ONE SIMPLE FORMULATION’: Kirby disputed the suggestion that the Biden administration was trigger-happy in response to criticism of the decision to delay the shootdown of the Chinese balloon for days.

“They’re different. I think we need to separate the Chinese spy balloon, we knew what it was, we knew where it was going, we knew what it was trying to do,” said Kirby, who argued the decision to shoot down the smaller objects followed long-established protocols.

“We assessed whether they posed any kinetic threat to people on the ground. They did not. We assessed whether they were sending any communications signals. We detected none. We looked to see whether they were maneuvering or had any propulsion capabilities. We saw no signs of that. And we made sure to determine whether or not they were manned. They were not,” he said.

“It came down to one simple formulation, and that’s if, at the recommendation of his military leaders, he believes that the safety and security of the United States, the safety and security of the American people — his prime responsibility — warrant that kind of a decision,” Kirby said of Biden.

OPINION: UFOS AND THE WHITE HOUSE’S ‘NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRATERRESTRIALS’ DISTRACTION

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US issues dire warning for citizens to leave Russia ‘immediately’ and stay away

Washington Examiner: Russia suffers another loss in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: White House says flying objects present ‘real potential risk to civilian air traffic’

Washington Examiner: Calls grow for Biden to address public about objects shot from sky

Washington Examiner: Timeline of the three unidentified objects shot down in US and Canadian airspace

Washington Examiner: Air Force detected high-altitude balloons across Middle East over the last year

Washington Examiner: Air Force interested in ‘experimenting’ with spy balloons: ‘We haven’t done any of that yet’

Washington Examiner: China committee chairman mulls running ‘creative wargaming’ amid threats to Taiwan

Washington Examiner: Chinese spy balloon exposes US vulnerability to EMP attacks

Washington Examiner: Opinion: UFOs and the White House’s ‘no evidence of extraterrestrials’ distraction

Washington Examiner: US ‘deeply troubled’ by Israel’s decision to legalize outposts in West Bank

New York Times: U.S. And China In Growing Diplomatic Crisis Over Spying Programs

Reuters: Top U.S., China Diplomats Weigh First Meeting Since Balloon Drama

Washington Post: Latest Downed Objects Seen As Less Advanced

Fox News: Taiwan Says ‘Dozens’ Of Chinese Spy Craft Cross Its Airspace As Tensions Flare With U.S.

Stars and Stripes: Chinese Naval Vessel Enters Japan’s Territorial Waters For First Time This Year

Washington Post: As Anniversary Nears, U.S. Warns Of A Critical Window To Make Gains

New York Times: Kyiv’s Troops Get Crash Course On Polish Tanks As Russia Steps Up Advance

Defense News: When Will The War In Ukraine End? Experts Offer Their Predictions.

Air & Space Forces Magazine: As Ukraine Begs for Aircraft, US and UK See Jets As ‘Post-War’ Need

19fortyfive.com: The War Between Ukraine and Russia: What Statistics Can Tell Us

19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Greatest Fear: How Ukraine Can Take Back Crimea

Seapower Magazine: Cooper: U.S. Navy, Partners Put The Squeeze On Iranian Arms Shipments

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Jones Stepping Down as Undersecretary of the Air Force

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Must Counter China and Russia in the Middle East, AFCENT Boss Says

19fortyfive.com: India Buys Billions of Dollars in Russian Arms (But Not for Long?)

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown: Air Force Can’t Let Uncrewed Aircraft Get Too Expensive

Forbes: Washington Is Escalating Its Military Role In Ukraine. What Happens When Russia Reacts?

Calendar

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event with Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston https://ausa.force.com/OnlineCommunity/s/community-event

9 a.m. 201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Preparing for the Dissolution of the Russian Federation,” with Oleksiy Goncharenko, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Janusz Bugajski, Jamestown Foundation senior fellow; Paul Goble, Jamestown Foundation senior analyst; Natalia Arno, president of the Free Russia Foundation; Inal Sherip, foreign minister of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria; Frederick Starr, founding chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program; Temuri Yakobashvili, former Georgian Ambassador to the U.S.; and Luke Coffey, Hudson Institute senior fellow https://www.hudson.org/events/preparing-dissolution-russian-federation

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Implementation of the Trusted Workforce 2.0 initiative,” with Bill Lietzau, director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency; and Suzanne Wilson, INSA president https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What does Ukraine need to win in 2023?” with former Supreme Allied Commander Europe Army Gen. Wesley Clark; former Canadian Defense Staff Chief Gen. Rick Hillier; retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, chairman of the KKR Global Institute and former CIA director; and retired Australian Defense Force Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-does-ukraine-need-to-win

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Forum “Space infrastructure, space capabilities and defining the threat environment,” with John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/feb-14

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Securing Cyberspace: Hardening America’s Software against Foreign Digital Sabotage,” Rep. Tony Gonzales, (R-TX); Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Jason Weiss, chief software officer, Conquest Cyber; Cliff Bean, director of Navy missions, Defense Sector, Peraton https://www.hudson.org/preview-link

11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Zoom webinar to release new report: “Innovating for Great Power Competition: An Examination of Service and Joint Innovation Efforts,” with authors Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; Evan Montgomery, CSBA director of research and studies; and Tyler Hacker, CSBA analyst https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

11:30 a.m. —Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion: “Innovating for Great Power Competition: An Examination of Service and Joint Innovation Efforts,” with Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; Evan Montgomery, CSBA director of research and studies; and Tyler Hacker, CSBA analyst https://csbaonline.org/about/events/report-release-webinar

11:45 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley hold a news conference at the conclusion of the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Livestream at https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/#/?currentVideo=31149

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Ukrainian Public Opinion and the War,” with Volodymyr Ishchenko, Ukrainian research associate at the Institute of East European Studies; Gerard Toal, professor at Virginia Polytechnic; Albina Kovalyova, director-producer at BBC Eye Investigations; and Anatol Lieven, director of the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/ukrainian-public-opinion-and-the-war/

12 p.m. — New America virtual book discussion: Without Borders: The Haqqani Network and the Road to Kabul, with author Jere Van Dyk https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15

8:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit,” with Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Richard Johnson, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear/countering weapons of mass destruction policy; Drew Walter, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear matters; Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, Navy Strategic Submarines Program executive officer; and Brig. Gen. Ty Neuman, director of Air Force concepts and strategy https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2023/

6 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual launch of the 2023 edition of The Military Balance, with John Chipman, CEO and director general of IISS; James Hackett, editor of The Military Balance and senior fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS; Fenella McGerty, senior fellow for defense economics at IISS; Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy at IISS; Henry Boyd, research fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS; Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security at IISS; Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis at IISS; Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS; and Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at IISS https://www.iiss.org/events/2023/02/the-military-balance-2023-launch

8 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “China-Russia Relations One Year into the Ukraine War,” with Li Mingjiang, associate professor at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; and Hoang Thi Ha, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; Paul Haenle, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/15/china-russia-relations

9 a.m. — Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion: “Challenging China’s Critical Mineral Dominance,” with Par Weihed, pro vice chancellor and professor of ore geology at Lulea University, Sweden; Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at PIIE; and Cecilia Malmstrom, nonresident senior fellow at PIIE https://www.piie.com/events/challenging-chinas-critical-mineral-dominance

1 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission release: “Report on the Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2023-2024,” with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK); James Ulvestad, acting director, National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Programs; David Balton, executive director, Office of Science and Technology Policy’s Arctic Executive Steering Committee; Derek Chollet, State Department counselor; and Larry Hinzman, assistant director of polar science at the Office of Science and Technology Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/release-us-arctic-research-commission

2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion: “Lessons from Ukraine for Maritime East Asia,” with Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; and Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center’s Japan Program https://www.stimson.org/event/lessons-from-ukraine-for-maritime-east-asia

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16

8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Va. — Potomac Officers Club annual Artificial Intelligence Summit, with Craig Martell, chief digital and artificial intelligence officer at the Defense Department; and Lakshmi Raman, director of artificial intelligence at the CIA https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-4th-annual-artificial-intelligence-summi

9:30 a.m. — Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty virtual discussion: “Clearing the Air: Russian Disinformation and the War in Ukraine,” with Ukrainian Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko; Olga Rudenko, chief editor of the Kyiv Independent; Peter Dickinson, chief editor of Business Ukraine magazine; and Natalie Sedletska, acting Kyiv bureau chief of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service https://zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth,” with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/china-and-ukraine-time-truth

12 p.m. 7805 Regents Dr., College Park, Md. — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies Global Forum: “Black Sea Security Conundrum: Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-global-forum

12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion: Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir, focusing on advancing democracy in the post-Soviet world and the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump, with author and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events

12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual Global Risk Conference: “Russia and the West: All Bridges Burned?” with Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; and Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies discussion: “The Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine: Identity, Politics, Governance,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/implications-russias-war-ukraine

4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Entering a New Era for US-Japan Defense Integration,” with James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

4:30 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The North Korean Threat and Allied Policy Options,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-north-korean-threat

4:30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Inside Look at Biden’s Ukraine Strategy,” with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/16/carnegie-connects

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17

TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org