A federal court just issued a ruling that could push Democrats over the top in their effort to retake the House of Representatives this November.
On Monday, a U.S. district court determined that the North Carolina’s congressional map is unconstitutional and that it may need to be redrawn before the November midterm elections. That decision could cost Republicans as many as four or five seats, and thus tilt an evenly-divided lower chamber to the Democrats. And since this ruling could push North Carolina’s congressional races off till December, control of Congress — and thus whether President Trump gets impeached — could come down handful of post-Election Day contests in the Tar Heel state.
Of course, North Carolina legislators are likely to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, but with Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement a tie is entirely possible, which would leave the lower court’s decision in place.
So, what are the implications of the current ruling?
The court found that the congressional map, as currently drawn to favor Republicans, actually violates the First Amendment and the equal protection clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. As the opinion noted: “The Constitution does not allow elected officials to enact laws that distort the marketplace of political ideas so as to intentionally favor certain political beliefs, parties, or candidates and disfavor others.”
This is bad news for Republican candidates who have benefited from districts expressly created to get them elected. As Rep. David Lewis, a Republican member of the North Carolina General Assembly explained in 2016: “I propose that we draw the maps to give partisan advantage to 10 republicans and three Democrats because I don’t believe it’s possible to draw a map with 11 Republicans and two Democrats.”
That map worked as expected and gave Republicans 10 of 13 House seats (77 percent) despite just 53 percent of the statewide vote favoring the GOP.
With a new map, many of the safe Republicans will be vulnerable, making GOP control of the House more tenuous. Even within the gerrymandered map, a couple of seats are already considered vulnerable and redrawing the map could put up to six GOP held seats at risk.
The opinion of the three-judge panel outlined how the state might remedy the gerrymandered districts before the midterm elections. They suggested that, for example, general elections in new districts take place without first having party primaries. Another suggestion that would be sure to turn the state into a spectacle, would be for the state to hold new primary elections on Nov. 6 and then have a second election after November but before the new term starts in January.
If the November election is close, that would leave the nation to wait for the outcome of North Carolina’s vote after all the other ballots are cast to determine control of the House. Undoubtedly, that would mean that both parties pour money into races that, with new districts may be very competitive, in a bid not just for more Representatives but for a majority.
That, in turn, may jeopardize GOP objectives ranging from border security, to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, to even Donald Trump’s presidency.
In short, the North Carolina election is well worth watching – not because of candidates but because of the court.
