EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENTS: Washington awoke this morning to the news that North Korea carried out a threat made by Kim Jong Un’s sister to “completely collapse” the “useless North-South joint liaison office” on the North side of the border.
Kim Yo Jong, Kim’s younger sister, made the threat over the weekend as North Korea cut off communication with the South over the practice of defectors from the North sending pro-democracy leaflets via balloons across the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas.
“The relevant field of the DPRK put into practice the measure of completely destroying the North-South joint liaison office in the Kaesong Industrial Zone in the wake of cutting off all the communication liaison lines between the North and the South,” said a statement from the state-controlled Korean Central News Agency, which referred to the defectors as “human scum” and warned that “those who have sheltered the scum” will “pay dearly for their crimes.”
A REMILITARIZED ZONE? North Korea’s military is threatening to move back into areas of the DMZ that had been disarmed in an effort to reduce tensions between the North and South.
“Our army is keeping a close watch on the current situation in which North-South relations are deteriorating rapidly and getting itself fully ready to provide a sure military guarantee for any external measures to be taken by the Party and the government,” said the general staff of the Korean People’s Army, according to the Pyongyang Times, which is also controlled by the government.
The report said the military was “studying an action plan for taking measures to make the army advance again into the zones that were demilitarized under the inter-Korean agreement, fortify the frontline areas, and further keep a stricter military watch on the South.”
WHO’S IN CHARGE? The sudden elevation of Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong to a high-profile role in which she is a de facto deputy to her brother is again raising questions about Kim Jong Un’s health, though in his recent public appearances, he did not appear to be sick.
Kim disappeared from view for weeks in April amid rumors that he had suffered a major medical event or had even died. He resurfaced for a ribbon-cutting ceremony at the beginning of May, putting an end to the rumors.
NO PROGRESS, NO PEACE: The new aggressive stance comes two years after President Trump’s historic summit with Kim Jong Un in Singapore that held the promise of an agreement that would eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute on Monday said it now believes North Korea has an estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads in its arsenal. “North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy,” the think tank said.
But after two years with no significant progress, North Korea has soured on the process, and last week, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Son Gwon, referred to a “spiraling deterioration” in relations with the United States, said in a statement, “Even a slim ray of optimism for peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula has faded away into a dark nightmare.”
PROPITIOUS TIMING: Meanwhile, on Wednesday in Washington, the former top U.S. commander in Korea, retired Gen. Vincent Brooks, is scheduled to appear in a webcast sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Racial discrimination in the U.S. military takes center stage at a House Armed Services Committee hearing at noon as judge advocates of all the military services testify about racial disparity in the military justice system, along with victims’ advocates. The hearing will be streamed live at Defense.gov. More details below in our calendar.
TATA OPPOSED: The top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee will oppose the nomination of retired Army Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, to the Pentagon’s senior policy position, according to Politico.
Rhodes Island Democrat Sen. Jack Reed is said to consider past comments made by Tata, a frequent guest on Fox News, to be disqualifying.
Last week, CNN uncovered tweets from 2018 in which Tata called Islam the “most oppressive violent religion I know of” and claimed that former President Barack Obama was a “terrorist leader” who did more to harm the U.S. “and help Islamic countries, than any president in history.”
“Sen. Reed’s preference is to wait for the hearing process before commenting on nominees,” Chip Unruh, Reed’s spokesman, told Politico in a statement. “But in this case, there are real warning signs flashing, and if this nomination moves forward, Sen. Reed will oppose it.”
BOLTON’S BOOK: President Trump is trying to block the release of John Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir, which is scheduled for release next week. The former national security adviser has promised the book will reveal more wrongdoing by his former boss, and Bolton has already recorded an interview about it with Martha Raddatz of ABC News, which will air Sunday.
Attorney General William Barr says Bolton and his publishers have thumbed their noses at the requirement that government officials who have had access to sensitive information go through a clearance process before they can publish a book. “We don’t believe that Bolton … completed the process and therefore is in violation of that agreement,” Barr said.
“And he knows he’s got classified information,” added Trump, speaking to White House pool reporters. “Any conversation with me is classified. Then, it becomes even worse if he lies about the conversation, which I understand he might have in some cases.”
“I think it’s totally inappropriate that he does a book,” Trump said. “I gave him a break. He couldn’t get Senate confirmed. He was never Senate confirmed the first time. I don’t think he’s supposed to even be calling himself an ambassador because he couldn’t get Senate confirmed.”
‘So we’ll have to see what the book is all about, but a lot of people are upset with him for writing a book,” he said. “But it’s up to the attorney general.”
NO PRIOR RESTRAINT: Legal experts say it’s unlikely the White House will be able to win an injunction to block the publication of the book because of the very high bar set in the landmark 1971 “Pentagon Papers” case, in which the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that “any system of prior restraints … carries a heavy burden of showing justification for the imposition of such a restraint.”
“For good reason, American courts almost never issue prior restraints against the publication of matters of public concern. Prior restraints squelch speech before it occurs and almost always sweep too broadly,” said Jameel Jaffer, executive director at the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University. “The request the government is making in this case is particularly disturbing against the background of credible reports that the White House’s real concern here is not safeguarding national security secrets but suppressing criticism of the president.”
Washington attorney Mark Zaid, who represented the whistleblower whose complaint triggered Trump’s impeachment, says the administration would be on much firmer footing prosecuting Bolton after publication. “Better Trump Admin strategy is to prosecute Bolton … and/or sue him for breach of contract,” he tweeted. “The civil action is virtually guaranteed win for Govt.”
TRUMP GERMANY TROOP WITHDRAWAL THREAT IN RESPONSE TO NATO SPENDING: Trump explained on Monday his rationale for ordering dramatic cuts in U.S. troop levels in Germany, and once again, it’s about NATO funding.
“We have 52,000 soldiers in Germany. That’s a tremendous amount of soldiers. It’s a tremendous cost to the United States. And Germany, as you know, is very delinquent in their payments to NATO. And they’re paying 1%, and they’re supposed to be at 2%,” Trump said. “So … we’re putting the number down to 25,000 soldiers.”
Trump consistently misstates the goal of increasing defense spending as “payments to NATO” when the money at issue refers to funds that member countries spend on their own defense.
“Germany is delinquent,” he said. “They’ve been delinquent for years, and they owe NATO billions of dollars — and they have to pay it.”
Wrong. Germany is not delinquent or in arrears on any “dues” to NATO. Under a 2014 agreement, NATO nations committed to the goal of spending 2% of their GDP on defense by 2024.
While Germany is not on track to meet the goal, it spends $54 billion a year on defense, more than any other NATO nation except for the United Kingdom ($60 billion) and the U.S. ($730 billion).
ARMY HAS 3 VACCINES IN THE PIPELINE: A U.S. Army laboratory announced the selection of a lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate as well as two backup vaccine candidates that will advance to the next stage of research.
The Army Futures Command’s Medical Research and Development Command said the candidates were narrowed down from more than two dozen prototypes “in order to determine the candidates that elicited the most promising antibody response in preclinical studies.”
The leading candidate is called SpFN, for Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle, and will enter first-in-human testing later this year.
TRANSGENDER MILITARY: Monday’s 6-3 Supreme Court ruling that Title VII of the Civil Rights Act protects gay and transgender people from employment discrimination has advocates for transgender troops calling for an end to restrictions on military service.
“The landmark ruling does not apply to discrimination against transgender Americans by the military, the nation’s largest employer,” said Aaron Belkin, director of the Palm Center. “Today’s ruling makes the military, so often a successful leader in ending discrimination in American life, an outlier amidst a national consensus that arbitrary discrimination is harmful and wrong. With transgender workers protected by federal law in all other sectors, the military’s transgender ban is now even harder to defend.”
HERITAGE BACKS MARINE CORPS MAKEOVER: Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger has been taking some heat for his radical plan to remake the Marine Corps into a force specifically designed to counter China by 2030.
Some analysts and former commanders have argued it would be a mistake for the Marine Corps to give up many of its traditional missions, including its capability to engage in major ground combat with tanks and artillery like the Army.
But a report out this morning from the Heritage Foundation’s Dakota Wood concludes “Berger’s efforts are on the mark, should continue, and should be supported by Congress.”
“The shift is dramatic, even revolutionary, for the service in the same way as was its shift from small wars to large-scale, opposed amphibious landings in the 1930s. It is sorely needed and, if successful, will introduce a wholly new set of warfighting capabilities to the U.S. Joint Force,” writes Wood.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: As US negotiates with Iraq on troop presence, a Trump campaign promise lingers
Washington Examiner: French killing of top al Qaeda terrorist shows vital role of US intelligence in Africa
Washington Examiner: Top EU diplomat flaunts independence from Washington on China
USNI News: Panel: COVID-19 Pandemic Could Prompt Changes to National Security Spending
WAVY-TV: USS Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group Returning To Norfolk On Tuesday
C4ISRNET: Military IT Leaders Prep For An ‘Even Worse’ Second Wave Of Coronavirus
Defense News: With The Future Of The U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing Murky, Congress Demands A Plan
Washington Post: Fearing A Reign Of Terror, Some Hong Kong Families Are Preparing To Flee
Reuters: Pompeo To Meet Chinese Delegation In Hawaii This Week
New York Times: Russia Puts U.S. Citizen In Prison For 16 Years
CNN.com: Esper Consulting Senior Military Commanders On How To Address Racial Inequality In Armed Services
AP: Black Lives Matter banner removed at US Embassy in Seoul
USNI News: Japan Backing Away From Aegis Ashore
AP: US considers withholding aid to Jordan to force extradition
Air Force Magazine: 493rd Fighter Squadron Pilot Killed in F-15C Crash
Just the News: In Seattle’s CHAZ, would-be revolutionaries vie to control the narrative
Calendar
TUESDAY | JUNE 16
5 a.m. EDT/11 a.m. CET — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters ahead of the meetings of the NATO Defense Ministers taking place via teleconference June 17-18. https://www.nato.int
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group and Nextgov and Defense One 2020 Tech Summit webcast; “Genius Machines: Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield,” with Greg Allen, chief of strategy and communications in the Defense Department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; and Brig. Gen. Matt Easley, director of artificial intelligence at Army Futures Command. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/genius-machines
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Reasserting U.S. Influence in the Arctic,” with U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands and Liselotte Odgaard, visiting senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. — Washington Post Live webcast: “Veterans: Frontline Concerns,” with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., member of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee; Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Calif.; Jon Stewart, former host of Comedy Central’s The Daily Show; Derek Fronabarger, government affairs director and TEAM community organizer at the Wounded Warrior Project; and David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com
12 p.m. Rayburn 2118 — Virtual House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Racial Disparity in the Military Justice System — How to Fix the Culture,” with retired Col. Don Christensen, president, Protect our Defenders; Brenda Farrell, U.S. Government Accountability Office; Lt. Gen. Charles Pede, Army judge advocate general; Vice Adm. John Hannink, Navy judge advocate general; Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Rockwell, Air Force judge advocate general; Maj. Gen. Daniel Lecce, staff judge advocate to the commandant of the Marine Corps. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1 p.m. — Defense One 2020 Tech Summit webcast: “Linking Land, Air, Sea, and Space to Dominate the Battlefield of Tomorrow,” with Air Force Chief Architect Preston Dunlap; Tim Grayson, director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Strategic Technology Office; Patrick Baker, director of the Army Research Laboratory’s Combat Capabilities Development Command; and Lisa Sanders, director of science and technology at the Special Operations Command. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/tech-summit
2 p.m. — The Mitchell Institute Aerospace Nation conversation with Shawn Barnes, performing the duties of assistant secretary for space acquisition and integration. Afterward, a recording will be posted at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation.
2 p.m. — Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Grinston Facebook Live discussion: “Army Combat Fitness Test.” with Maj. Gen. Maria Gervais, director of the Synthetic Training Environment Cross Functional Team; Maj. Gen. Lonnie Hibbard, commanding general of the Center for Initial Military Training; and Command Sgt. Maj. Jamila Smith of the Army Headquarters Command Battalion. https://www.dvidshub.net/webcast
2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security webinar: “Serious Games: How the Pentagon Uses Wargames to Develop Ideas and Inform Decisions,” with former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, senior counselor for defense at CNAS; Chris Dougherty, senior fellow in the CNAS Defense Program; Ed McGrady, adjunct senior fellow in the CNAS Defense Program; Becca Wasser, fellow in the CNAS Defense Program; Will Mackenzie, research fellow in the CNAS Defense Program; and Susanna Blume, director of the CNAS Defense Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-panel
3 p.m. — Middle East Institute webcast: “The future of U.S. defense strategy and posture in the Middle East in an era of great power competition,” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors and co-founder and CEO of the Center for a New American Security; and Bilal Saab, senior fellow and director of the MEI Defense and Security Program. https://www.mei.edu/events/mei-defense
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 17
8 a.m. — Defense One Tech Summit webcast with Chris Lynch, CEO of Rebellion Defense; Christian Johnson, talent lead at the Defense Digital Service; and Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of Govini, participate in a discussion on “Bringing America’s Tech Talent into the Defense Department.” https://www.defenseone.com
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Latest developments in the U.S.-ROK alliance and on the Korean peninsula,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea. https://www.csis.org/events/online
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association webinar; “Biotechnology for Materiel and Defense,” with Steve Walker, CTO of Lockheed Martin; Ben Petro, human systems director the office of the Defense undersecretary for research and engineering; and Michelle Rozo, assistant biotechnology director in the Office of the Defense undersecretary for research and engineering. https://www.ndia.org/events
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association Virtual Training and Simulation Industry Symposium, with Navy Capt. Tim Hill, commanding officer of the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division and Naval Support Activity Orlando; and James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition. https://www.trainingsystems.org/events
10 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy webinar: “Is Regime Collapse on Syria’s Horizon? Evaluating Assad’s Grip on Power,” with Sam Dagher, nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute; and Oula Alrifai, fellow at WINEP. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis
11 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Space Power Forum” webcast with Lt. Gen. J.T. Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California. A recording of the event will be posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation.
11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion webcast on “Exercise of Power: American Failures, Successes, and a New Path Forward in the Post-Cold War World, with author and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates. https://www.csis.org/events/online
12 p.m. — American Society of International Law webinar, beginning at noon, on “The Impact of Emerging Technologies on the Law of Armed Conflict,” with Michael Meier, special assistant to the Army judge advocate general for law of war matters; Eric Talbot Jensen, law professor at the Brigham Young University Law School; Laurie Blank, clinical law professor and director of the Emory University School of Law International Humanitarian Law Clinic; and Laura Dickinson, research law professor at the George Washington University Law School. https://www.asil.org/event/online
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific as Tensions Simmer,” with former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Japan chair at Hudson; Tosh Minochara, professor at Kobe University; Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
1:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Is U.S. Policy Toward Moscow Too Confrontational?” with George Beebe, vice president and director of the Center for the National Interest; Emma Ashford, research fellow at the Cato Institute; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, fellow at Stanford University’s Spogli Institute for International Studies. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
2 p.m. — SETA Foundation webcast, “Shifting Dynamics: Toward a New Era in Libya?” with Muhittin Ataman, director, SETA Foundation Foreign Policy Program; Silvia Colombo, head of Italy’s foreign policy program at Istituto Affari Internazional; Tim Eaton, senior research fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
4:30 p.m. — Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Facebook Live video conference discussing “Priorities for Veterans,” with Rep. Phil Roe, R-Tenn, ranking member, House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs; and Jeremy Butler, IAVA CEO. https://www.facebook.com/IAVA.org
THURSDAY | JUNE 18
8 a.m. — Defense One Tech Summit discussion on “Breaking Barriers: The Next years in Strategic Deterrence and Missile Defense,” with Missile Defense Agency Director Vice Adm. Jon Hill; and Mike White, assistant director for hypersonics in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/tech-summit
8:30 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversion with Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander, U.S. Air Forces In Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa and NATO Allied Air Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/
9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Lt. Gen. Daniel Hokanson, to be general and chief of the National Guard Bureau; and Army Gen. Gustave Perna, for reappointment to the grade of general and to be chief operating officer, Project Warp Speed. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webcast: “Civil-Military Relations,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, senior fellow and visiting professor at SAIS; Eliot Cohen, dean of SAIS; Mara Karlin, executive director of the SAIS Center for Strategic Studies; Paula Thornhill, associate director of the SAIS Center for Strategic Studies; and Nora Bensahel, senior fellow and visiting professor at SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
11:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “Military Recruiting During COVID-19 and in a Changing America,” with Maj. Gen. Frank Muth, commander, U.S. Army Recruiting Command; Rear. Adm. Dennis Velez, commander, U.S. Navy Recruiting Command; and retired Cmdr. Shawn Skelly, commissioner, National Commission on Military, National and Public Service, and retired Army Lt. Gen. Thomas Spoehr, director, Center for National Defense, Heritage Foundation. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/webinar
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual rollout of its latest report: Long-Range Strike: Resetting the Balance of Stand-in and Stand-off Forces with author retired Col. Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments at Mitchell Institute; Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Brig. Gen. Michael Winkler, PACAF’s director of strategic plans, requirements and programs; and retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation
2 p.m. — New America webinar: “The Conservation of Defense,” with Kristin Thomasgard, director of the Readiness and Environmental Protection Integration Program in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Timothy Male, executive director of the Environmental Policy Innovation Center; Rebecca Rubin, president and CEO of Marstel-Dray LLC; and Sharon Burke, director of resource security at New America. https://www.newamerica.org
2 p.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “Troubled Waters: The Changing Security Environment in the Black Sea,” with Stephen Flanagan, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation; Thomas-Durell Young, senior lecturer at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School’s Institute for Security Governance; and Iulia Joja, senior fellow in MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative. https://www.mei.edu/events/troubled-waters
FRIDAY | JUNE 19
8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast; “Cross-Strait Relations in Tsai Ing-wen’s Second Term, with Chiu Chui-Cheng, deputy minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council; Yun Sun, co-director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program; Ryan Hass, interim chair in Taiwan studies at the Brookings Institution; and I-Ching Lai, president of the Prospect Foundation. https://www.csis.org/events/online
MONDAY | JUNE 22
11:00 a.m. Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities markup of National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1:00 p.m. Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces markup of NDAA for fiscal year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
TUESDAY | JUNE 23
11:00 a.m. Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces markup of NDAA for fiscal year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1:00 p.m. Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — Subcommittee on Military Personnel markup of NDAA for fiscal year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:00 p.m. Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — Subcommittee on Readiness markup of NDAA for fiscal year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
4:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces markup of NDAA for fiscal year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I will consider every conversation with me as president highly classified. So that would mean that if he wrote a book and if the book gets out, he’s broken the law, and I would think that he would have criminal problems. I hope so.”
President Trump asserting that anything he discussed with former national security adviser John Bolton is secret.
