There is no way to mince words or twist the numbers. If the election were held today, President Trump would lose to Joe Biden. It would not be close — not in the Electoral College and not in the popular vote.
Luckily for Trump, he still has more than four months to put down the phone, buck up, and turn the ship around. But unfortunately for Trump, there’s one massive factor that puts a ceiling on his ability to change the fundamental dynamics of the election: namely, that Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.
February, with half-century low unemployment rates and record personal confidence and satisfaction across the country, marked the high point of Trump’s presidency. Then came a global pandemic with the unforced error of national lockdowns and intentional misinformation about the mask-wearing. A better approach with masks and social distancing could have prevented economic devastation and, of course, protests that devolved into race riots and now massive crime waves across the nation.
All of this brought Trump back to his 2016 baseline, but because he came from the high point of his presidency, it feels like a new low. And it is, for the second half of Trump’s presidency, but it’s actually quite typical of the polling he saw during the 2016 campaign and even during his early tenure of his presidency. In August 2016, before the Access Hollywood fracas, Quinnipiac found that Trump trailed Clinton by 10 points, with his support at 41% to the former first lady’s 51%. Biden’s lead today is similar, with the former vice president at 52% to Trump’s 37%.
But an overhead view of the polling misses the real story of how this election is being won. It’s not because of a dramatic shift in public opinion about Trump but rather that Biden performs so much better than Clinton did in 2016.
For starters, Biden has completely reversed the metrics of the support of seniors, who are exceptionally crucial in elections given their disproportionate voter turnout. In the August 2016 Quinnipiac poll, Trump was carrying half of over-65 voters, with Clinton earning just one-third of them. In Wednesday’s Quinnipiac release, Biden carries the majority of seniors, with just 2 in 5 supporting the president’s reelection.
People like and trust Biden in a way they never did with Clinton. In 2016, more voters trusted Trump, with just 37% of those polled by Quinnipiac saying they believed Clinton to be more honest. Today, Biden leads Trump by 15 points on the question of whether voters believe the candidates to be honest. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump’s favorability is significantly higher than it was at this point in 2016. But although Biden’s favorability is not too far above Clinton’s, his unfavorability is about 10 points lower than Clinton’s was at this point four years ago.
Tack on to that the fact that Biden has both higher support among black voters and in swing states, and a pathway to his election seems clear.
Trump could probably boost his support by some 5% or so by putting down his phone, putting on a mask, and focusing on, you know, being a president. He was on pace for a (close) reelection just five months ago, and if the economy rebounds, a more tempered Trump could reclaim his incumbency advantage once more. But a massive factor in Trump’s poor performance is beyond his control. Voters’ loathing of Clinton played an enormous role in 2016. Say what you will about Biden, he just doesn’t inspire that kind of reaction.
