The most significant recent development in the Democratic race has been Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s steady gains among black voters, which makes it much more likely that she’ll emerge as the nominee.
Warren always had a path to winning Iowa and New Hampshire, but there was always the risk that she was the typical far-left candidate, such as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2016, who would have trouble appealing to black voters and thus falter once she got past the early heavily-white states. This was reflected in many early polls. But now, as she has made gains nationally and in early states, she is proving that she also has the ability to attract black voters, increasing the odds that she can reach a critical mass.
Back in a July poll, Warren was essentially in a three-way tie for second place with 15% nationally, according to Quinnipiac. In that poll, she was at 20% among white voters but way back at 6% among black voters. In a Wednesday poll, she has vaulted to the top with 27% overall, just edging out Joe Biden at 25%. But now among black voters, she’s in second place at 19%.
In California, it’s a similar story. A new LA Times poll finds Warren jumping to a 29% to 22% lead in the delegate-rich state overall, but she’s only trailing Biden 32% to 24% among black voters. Sen. Kamala Harris, who is both black and from California, was at 18% among the group.
Now it should be said, like any other group, blacks are not monolithic voters. There’s a big gap between the sort of older, church-going black voters voting in the South Carolina Democratic primary and younger black voters elsewhere. But Warren does not need to dominate among all of these groups, she just needs to be competitive so she doesn’t get slaughtered in every state in which there’s a large black population.
Recent polls have shown her overtaking Biden in Iowa, and there’s a Monmouth poll out showing her creeping ahead in New Hampshire. Should she come out of those two states with victories the momentum will likely carry over elsewhere. That process will be the opposite for Biden, who will be stumbling out of New Hampshire like a wounded animal. As long as she isn’t toxic among black voters, which the recent evidence suggests she is not, she’s likely to rack up many more wins.
We may be on the cusp of Warren becoming the undisputed front-runner.
