President Joe Biden will sit down with South Korean President Moon Jae-in Friday amid relative calm on the Korean Peninsula. But their first meeting arrives with questions about Korea’s willingness to play a stronger deterrent role against China.
Former President Donald Trump unilaterally scaled back or canceled joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea in a gesture to North Korea that yielded no progress in his failed denuclearization push, experts say. Meanwhile, Moon is expected to seek Biden’s support for a peace declaration to end the Korean War officially. While other allies, such as Japan, have taken a tough stance against Chinese aggression, South Korea is still reticent.
Here are the top three security-related issues the two presidents will discuss when Moon arrives at the White House.
Restore full-scale military exercises
The U.S. and South Korea have previously conducted regular, large-scale live-fire exercises on the continent to test capabilities and preserve readiness, Center for Strategic and International Studies Korea expert Mike Green said on a call with reporters Wednesday.
“President Trump announced with Kim Jong-un of North Korea at his side, without any consultation with his own Pentagon or the allies based on a suggestion from Vladimir Putin, that we would unilaterally stop what he called war games,” Green told the Washington Examiner.
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“There was a pretty big blow to the confidence of U.S. allies, but it was also a blow to readiness,” he added. “The resumption of exercises is important.”
Exercises in March were scaled back to tabletop and computer simulation exercises. Still, North Korea protested, leading experts to believe that nothing short of ceasing all joint exercises will satisfy the North.
“Clearly, if militaries don’t train, then their capability, their deterrence and defense capabilities degrade,” said the Heritage Foundation’s Bruce Klingner.
Klingner gave an analogy of a football team where the offensive line trains in one stadium, the running backs train in a second stadium, and the quarterback trains in a third stadium. Klinger said such a model is to “assume they can all come together on game day and win the game.”
“Militaries need to train in a way that they will fight,” he added.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told the Washington Examiner Wednesday that Austin was satisfied with the current level of military exercises.
“I can assure you that the secretary believes that we are maintaining the training and readiness of our forces and that they are as we like to say ready to fight tonight,” Kirby said, forecasting the possibility the restoration of exercises may not be a priority.
No symbolic peace declaration
Klinger, a longtime CIA Korea desk analyst, said it would be a foreign policy error for Biden to give Moon the public relations victory he is looking for in the final year of his lame-duck presidency.
The analyst said many progressive governments in South Korea have advocated for a “sunshine policy” of positive gestures and opportunities, such as economic and sanctions relief, to dissuade North Korea from threats and bellicose posturing.
“Moon has also been pushing for a declaration ending the Korean war,” Klinger said. “On the idea that somehow it will reduce tensions and cause North Korea to act in a better manner.”
Klinger argues that not only would there be no quid pro quo for such an end of war declaration, but also a peace declaration would be meaningless if North Korean conventional forces still threaten the South.
Cooperation on China
Biden’s first foreign leader to visit the White House was Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. The two leaders ended their summit with a joint statement objecting to China’s unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea and underscoring peace and stability in Taiwan.
Security experts do not believe South Korea will be so forward-leaning with its top trade partner, China, which South Korea believes is crucial for nuclear negotiations with North Korea. Nonetheless, there will be a push and pull, Green said, from Biden and Moon to shift their respective policy positions.
Green believes that U.S. alliance efforts, such as the “quad” composed of the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan, are not meant to be hostile to China.
“The quad and the free and open Indo-Pacific concept are not about containing China,” he said. “They’re about reinforcing the rest of Asia to be more resilient against natural disasters, pandemics, and also Chinese coercion and pressure.”
Green gave several examples of how South Korea could participate in quad efforts such as vaccine diplomacy, infrastructure investment, and capacity building, such as contributing the radar and patrol boats that smaller Asian nations need.
Kirby, likewise, said he expects the Moon summit to explore ways that South Korea can cooperate trilaterally with the United States and Japan in areas such as interoperability and security cooperation.
“There’s a lot of potential there for better cooperation in the security environment,” he said. “Both countries also are mindful of Chinese growing influence and power in the region.”
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Green said there is much room for à la carte options from the quad menu.
“There’s a lot of things on the menu that are not about containing China or stopping China or threatening China,” he said. “The problem for Seoul is if it’s too afraid to do any of those…a lot of us worry that Beijing may interpret the hesitancy to even do those kinds of things as a temptation for trying to think that pressure will work.”
