Presidential historian Jon Meacham warned there could be a large number of voters who plan to vote for President Trump this fall but are not telling pollsters they plan to do so.
“We’re in this moment where, I think, a lot of people who might be voting for the incumbent are not gonna tell pollsters,” Meacham said Friday evening on MSNBC. “I know the Biden campaign is being careful about this as well. It’s a long way to go.”
Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads Trump by at least 7 points in most national polls, which includes commanding leads in several battleground states.
Trump’s campaign surrogates have contested that a so-called “silent majority” stands with the president.
“Frankly, the only poll that I put stock in is the one that’s going to take place on Nov. 3,” Vice President Mike Pence said earlier this month. “The enthusiasm that I see across the country as I travel, even in challenging times, around this president for our agenda is greater today than it was at this point four years ago. I mean, I see it everywhere I go, and I know that enthusiasm is going to carry us to a great victory on election day.”
Election experts say the term “silent majority” has long been used by campaigns as a way to explain bad poll numbers.
“[Trump] likes the idea, personally, that the polling is wrong, that there’s some kind of silent majority who supports him,” said Angie Maxwell, director of the Diane Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society. “[I]t’s an attempt to stop the bleeding in terms of his support. His unfavorable numbers are so high now, and that makes those people who are on the fence feel less alone — that they’re part of something bigger.”
A recent study commissioned by the Pew Research Center found a majority of voters feel they cannot express their political opinions openly, especially in the case of conservatives.
“This large number from across demographic groups suggests withheld opinions may not simply be radical or fringe perspectives in the process of being socially marginalized,” the study said.
A separate study by the Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research determined voters who support Trump are more excited to do so than those who plan to vote for Biden.
Meacham said the country is on “a knife’s edge,” politically, heading into this fall’s general election.
“It’s a 51-49 nation,” he said. “And it’s interesting, I think, that even in the big blowout years … there’s something about the American character that we don’t run in one direction with one party for very long. It may be that this president has upended that norm … but I would bet on there continuing to be this incredibly, closely divided nation going forward.”
