As the coronavirus has ripped through the planet and ground the global economy to a halt within a matter of weeks, there hasn’t been much reason for optimism. While much of the news these days is discouraging, there are several reasons for hope.
Summer is coming. From the get-go, there had been informed speculation that the coronavirus would weaken in warmer weather based on our experience with the flu, but there was not much actual evidence to support it. We now have at least some research supporting it. One study out of China looked at data from different cities, controlling for population density, and found that “high temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19.”
Spread is leveling off in other countries. Even if we discount the evidence from the Chinese government suggesting that there have been barely any new cases there for weeks, other countries, including Japan and South Korea, have seen their curves flatten — which can be seen in the chart below from Our World in Data. Now, it’s true that those countries were much more aggressive early. South Korea has been a model to the world when it comes to widespread testing. The United States acted late, and our early efforts at testing have been hampered. So now, we’re left hoping that draconian social distancing will be able to avoid a total breakdown of the medical system. That said, the experiences of other countries show that it’s possible to control the outbreak, and if it’s too late to avoid significant damage this spring, those lessons will serve us well down the road as we brace for a possible fall resurgence.
There may be a drug that can help. Drugs that were first discovered in 1934 to fight malaria have shown some promise in fighting COVID-19. While the research that exists is limited and would need to be scaled up tremendously for us to have confidence it can work, the drugs (chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine) are already approved by the FDA from a safety perspective. Even though the agency can’t yet vouch for its efficacy in treating the coronavirus, it means that doctors in the U.S. are free to try out the drugs on COVID-19 patients — and some are. Israeli generic drugmaker Teva has announced that it would send U.S. hospitals 10 million doses of hydroxychloroquine free of charge over the next month. While drugs are not quite the answer that a vaccine would provide, if these or another drug proved effective, it would mean that we would have at least one tool to reduce the severity of the disease, which would mean fewer patients requiring intensive care, freeing up hospital capacity and saving lives.
Private businesses are kicking into action. When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s coronavirus testing failed, the U.S. turned to private companies and labs to step in. And while testing is still nowhere near where it should be, the capacity has ramped up considerably in the past week, one reason why we’re seeing a huge spike in reported cases. There’s news that Ford, General Motors Co., and Tesla might start making ventilators, which are crucial to keeping those with severe cases of the disease breathing. On a smaller scale, we’re seeing stories of adaptation and entrepreneurship. Some grocery stores are starting to offer special shopping hours for older and more vulnerable patients. A small Maryland distillery has shifted to making hand sanitizer. As noted above, it may be too late to avoid a strain on the medical system in the coming weeks. However, if we think of the fight against the coronavirus as a multiwave fight between now and the time there is a vaccine, then these developments are encouraging. If there is time to regroup in the summer, then we may see an uptick in the fall. But we’d likely be going into that fight with adequate testing, adequate supplies of medical equipment, and plenty of hand sanitizer and toilet paper to meet demand.
