House Democrats are charging into the final three weeks of the midterm election campaign with a critical cash advantage, raising significantly more in the third quarter than embattled Republicans.
The numbers alone are eye-popping. At least four of the Democratic challengers running in House races rated most likely to change parties raked in $3.5 million or more. At least one dozen Democratic nominees in the most competitive contests reported a haul of $2 million or more.
Grassroots liberals are so jazzed to rebuke President Trump, they donated $4.3 million to Democrat Andrew Janz in the three-month period ending Sept. 30 — even though he has basically zero chance of defeating Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., a White House ally.
Bill Burton, who worked at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2006, the last time Democrats flipped control of the House, said he has never seen anything like it. “It’s extraordinary,” Burton told the Washington Examiner on Tuesday, the deadline for third quarter fundraising reports to be filed with the Federal Election Commission.
“In 2006, there were plenty of places where Democrats outraised Republicans by $100,000 or $200,000. But nothing like this,” Burton, who later served under President Barack Obama, added. “There was nothing like it.” Democrats won 31 seats in the 2006 midterm elections, a backlash against President George W. Bush.
Republicans are a bit more optimistic about their prospects on Nov. 6, as fresh polls show an uptick in conservative interest in voting. Some attribute the improvement to the partisan battle to confirm newly minted Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, others to natural tightening as historically Republican voters come home to the party as they’ve turned their attention to the election.
But party insiders and senior strategists are fretting about money, warning that even if a massive blue wave fails to materialize, a “green wave” of Democratic campaign cash could sink their already teetering 23-seat majority. It’s not just Democratic candidates that are outraising Republicans; progressive groups are more numerous and better funded than their GOP counterparts. All told, it’s having an impact.
“It’s one thing to be outspent, it’s another not to have enough money to define your opponent and define yourself. The latter is absolutely critical,” said Matt Gorman, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “This is something the NRCC has been stressing to candidates and members for well over a year now.”
The NRCC knows the feeling. Through the end of August, the House Republican campaign arm trailed the DCCC by more than $50 million in money raised for the 2018 election cycle.
House Republicans weren’t in a bragging mood about their lagging fundraising totals, preferring to let reporters dig for it on the FEC website as the reports were slowly uploaded. In several of the House races that could determine control of the chamber, that meant third quarter figures for the GOP incumbent weren’t immediately available.
It’s just the opposite for Democrats. In recent days, DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico gave reporters an overview of what to expect: 60 Democratic House candidates with fundraising that surpassed $1 million for the quarter; 30 challengers that collected $2 million-plus, and eight that brought in more than $3 million.
Some the highest achievers are in “tossup” contests — or worse.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger, running against Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va., raised $3.6 million. According to the Washington Post, the incumbent raised more than $1 million during the same period. Democrat Jared Golden, challenging Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, raised $2.7 million. According to the Lewiston Sun Journal, the incumbent brought in just $538,000.
Rep. Kevin Yoder, R-Kan., who is running for re-election in a race that has been rated “lean Democrat,” collected a respectable $1.1 million in the third quarter, McClatchy reported, not surprising for an incumbent who has always performed well on the money circuit. No matter, his Democratic opponent, Sharice Davids, raised $2.7 million.
“The Republicans in the House and the Senate — and especially in the House — are facing a tsunami of Democratic money the likes of which we’ve never seen before,” Rob Simms, a former NRCC executive director, said.
